Astros vs Rangers Predictions, Picks, Odds: Offenses Erupt in Game 4

With Houston suddenly back in the series following an 8-5 win over Texas on Wednesday, find out why we expect the Astros bats to remain hot in Game 4. Read more as Chris Faria breaks it all down in our Astros vs. Rangers betting picks.

Chris Faria - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Chris Faria • Betting Analyst
Oct 19, 2023 • 18:02 ET • 4 min read
Josh Jung Texas Rangers MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Astros will look to pick up their second straight win over the Texas Rangers and tie the series when they collide at Globe Life Field for Game 4 of the ALCS.

Max Scherzer let the Rangers down in Game 3 with a disappointing start but Texas will look to Andrew Heaney to steady the ship in our MLB picks — an interesting decision given that the southpaw hasn’t pitched since Game 1 of the ALDS.

Will Heaney help Texas take a 3-1 lead and advance one step further in the World Series odds, or can Houston knot the series at 2-2? Find out as we dissect the latest MLB odds in our MLB playoff predictions for Astros vs. Rangers on Thursday, October 19.

Astros vs Rangers odds

Astros vs Rangers Game 4 odds

Astros vs Rangers series odds

Team DraftKings FanDuel bet365 Caesars BetMGM
Astros Astros +185 +188 +180 +205 +180
Rangers Rangers -220 -230 -220 -240 -222

Astros vs Rangers predictions

After a sluggish start to the series where the Houston Astros got shut out in Game 1, the Astros bats finally woke up in Game 3, putting up five runs in just four innings on Max Scherzer, en route to an 8-5 win. Usual suspects Jose Altuve (1 HR, 1 RBI) and Yordan Alvarez (2 RBI) did their part but it was the bottom of the Astros order that made the difference as Mauricio Dubon, Jeremy Pena, and Martin Maldonado combined for four RBI. 

While a lot of the blame will go on Scherzer for the loss, the Texas Rangers didn’t have much going offensively as Josh Jung (2 HR, 4 RBI) carried the bulk of the load while only three other players managed to record a hit.

There could be a different feel to tonight’s game as Andrew Heaney gets the start for Texas — a bit of a surprise given that the left-hander hasn’t pitched since Game 1 of the ALDS, which was 12 days ago, plus the fact that he’s made just two starts in his last eight outings overall.

If one thing is for certain, it’s that both clubs possess powerful offenses, with the Rangers ranking third (5.44 runs per game) and the Astros coming in fifth (5.08) in scoring this season. These teams also love to put up runs against one another, cashing the Over in eight of their last 10 meetings.

With Heaney looking like a potential wild card for the Rangers and the Astros bats finally awake, I think we could see another high-scoring battle on Thursday. 

My best bet: Over 9.5 runs (-108 at DraftKings)

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Astros vs Rangers same-game parlay

Over 9.5 runs (-110)

Yordan Alvarez 1+ RBI (+145)

Josh Jung 2+ total bases (+140)

On top of taking the Over on 9.5 runs, I’ll round out tonight’s same-game parlay by banking on a couple of hitters to stay hot for their respective teams.

Alvarez has been mashing at the plate with a team-high 11 hits, six homers, and 10 RBI through just seven games this postseason. The Astros slugger has multiple RBI in two straight contests and has driven in at least one run in five of seven games this postseason, so I’ll look for him to pick up another RBI in Game 4.

Lastly, I’ll look for Jung to have another big night for the Rangers with a multi-base performance. The third baseman popped off for eight bases thanks to two home runs in Game 3 and leads Texas with 25 total bases this postseason — nine more than anyone else on the team. He’s also posted at least two bases in five of his last seven outings.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Astros vs Rangers moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Rangers opened as the home favorite at -110 but some oddsmakers see this one as a pick'em, with the Astros line moving to -110 by this morning. With Heaney getting the start for the Rangers and Jose Urquidy countering for the Astros, I can see why the line has been shifting.

Urquidy wasn’t fantastic this year but has turned it up down the stretch, ending the regular season with nine scoreless innings over two appearances and holding the Twins to just three hits and two earned runs over 5 2/3 innings in Game 4 of the ALDS — his only start of the postseason.

Heaney, meanwhile, was roughed up in his last two appearances against the Astros this season, allowing nine hits and six earned runs over just 9 2/3 innings.

Tonight’s total opened at 9.5 runs and as discussed, I am going with the Over. Texas has cashed the Over in three of its last four games while scoring at least five runs in three of those contests, while the Over is 5-2 in Houston’s last seven outings.

Trend to know

Houston is 7-0 in its last seven road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Rangers

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Astros vs Rangers game info

Location: Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX
Date: Thursday, October 19, 2023
First pitch: 8:03 p.m. ET
TV: FS1

Starting pitchers

Jose Urquidy (1-0, 3.18 ERA): After posting a bloated 5.29 ERA during an injury-riddled regular season, Urquidy returned to his usual dependable form in Game 4 of the ALDS. The right-hander has historically been a strong postseason performer, holding a 3.64 ERA over 13 appearances in his career.

Andrew Heaney (0-0, 2.45 ERA): Heaney lasted just 3 2/3 innings against the Orioles in Game 1 of the ALDS but held them to just two hits and one earned run in a no-decision. The southpaw was pulled from the Rangers’ starting rotation in early September, posting a 4.15 ERA over 34 games in the regular season.

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