Astros vs Angels Predictions, Picks, Odds: Hunting Brown

Fingers crossed, but Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and the Los Angeles Angels have been a competitive baseball team for about six weeks now. Monday night they get a good litmus test while opening a three-game set with the Houston Astros, their division rivals and the reigning World Series champions.

The Angels sit in second place in the American League West at 19-16, 3.5 games ahead of the Astros. L.A. will hand the ball to southpaw Patrick Sandoval on Monday, while Houston counters with Hunter Brown.

Will Trout, Ohtani, and Co. prove too much for the young right-hander? I break down the MLB odds for this AL West showdown and bring you my best bet in our free MLB picks and predictions for Astros vs. Angels.

Astros vs Angels odds

Astros vs Angels predictions

The Houston Astros may be experiencing a bit of a World Series hangover while getting off to a mediocre 17-17 start. One thing that's been working for the defending champs is starting pitching, which very much includes rookie Hunter Brown.

The 24-year-old right-hander is off to an impressive start, and he's produced solid performances against the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays. However, he’s starting to battle his control and is giving up a lot of loud outs. 

Brown ranks in the 37th percentile or worse in average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, and walk rate. So, while his ERA is an eye-catching 2.60, his expected ERA is more than a run higher at 3.69, meaning Brown could be due for some regression. And Los Angeles Angels star Mike Trout still hits the ball harder than most.

The three-time MVP may not be the perennial best player in the American League anymore, but he's still awesome. Trout ranks in the 84th percentile or better in max exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, expected batting average, and expected slugging percentage. The standard numbers say he's hitting .299 with a .947 OPS.

Trout has shown even more pop against right-handers, hitting seven of his eight home runs against righties with a 1.003 OPS. Additionally, Trout does his best work against fastballs and sliders, the two pitches Brown uses 65% of the time.

Brown has also been producing reverse splits in 2023. Right-handers are getting to him for a .286 average, as opposed to .136 for lefties.

Trout has gone Over 1.5 total bases 10 times across his last 20 games played. Getting his Over 1.5 total bases at +140 (an implied probability of 41.7%) looks like a solid value on Monday.

My best bet: Mike Trout Over 1.5 total bases (+140 at bet365)

Astros vs Angels moneyline analysis

This American League West showdown opened at basically a coin flip, with both sides sitting in the -110 range. But the Astros and Brown have been seeing the early money, moving as high as -130 favorites depending on the sportsbook. 

There are likely a few reasons for that. The Angels’ pitching staff has been lit up over the last two games, surrendering 26 runs in back-to-back losses to the Rangers. Then there's also the hype around Brown.

He's looked electric at times, specifically in shutout performances against the Rays and Rangers. But again, it's fair to expect some regression.

Countering Brown is Patrick Sandoval. While his advanced numbers also reveal some flaws, the Astros' lineup hasn’t been the same imposing force it was last season, particularly when facing southpaws. Houston ranks 18th in batting average and 16th in OPS when facing left-handed pitchers.

The pitching matchup is closer than meets the eye, and the Angels' lineup has been better in 2023. There's also some value in the Halos being underdogs at home.

Astros vs Angels Over/Under analysis

The total for this Astros-Angels throwdown hit the board at 8.5 and has been bumped up to 9 at most books. That should tell you this isn’t exactly set to be a pitcher’s duel.

Brown has been excellent at times. But his last three starts have been interesting: Two rough outings sandwiching a brilliant performance against the Rays. Overall, he's allowed six runs on 13 hits and nine walks over 16 innings in those three matchups.

Meanwhile, Sandoval sports a solid 2.93 ERA. The lefty creates a lot of soft contact, but he doesn’t strike out a ton of guys and struggles with walks. His expected ERA is a much higher 4.07. He also made two starts against the Astros in 2022. During the first he allowed just one unearned run on four hits, though Sandoval lasted just four innings. In the second one he was torched for five runs on eight hits over five frames.

If you can still find an 8.5 out there I would lean toward the Over, but at 9 stay away.

Astros vs Angels game info

Astros vs Angels betting preview

Starting pitchers

Hunter Brown (3-1, 2.60 ERA): Brown is the latest in a long line of impressive Astros pitching prospects. The right-hander mixes his fastball, slider, and curveball well. The next step for the 24-year-old? Consistency.

Patrick Sandoval (3-1, 2.93 ERA): Sandoval is a control lefty who creates a lot of soft contact with his slider and changeup. He should experience success against a struggling Astros lineup Monday if Sandoval can locate.

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