U.S. President Donald Trump’s economic war on Canada spells bad news for the country's Conservatives and their leader, Pierre Poilievre.
Key takeaways
● Pierre Poilievre's chances to win the election dropped to 8%, according to a Nanos poll.
● Poilievre's unpopularity can be associated with his similarities to Trump.
● Gambling platforms also reflect the decline, with Bet99 odds dropping from -1600 to +220.
A few months ago, Poilievre was in a strong position in opinion polls and looked set to become the next prime minister. However, Trump’s economic tariffs and threats to make Canada the U.S.' 51st state dramatically altered Poilievre’s polling position.
Back in January, the Conservatives led the ruling Liberal Party by 27%, but a Nanos poll conducted over Easter weekend found the Liberals had an 8% lead. This drop is also reflected in betting odds across various gambling platforms.
After Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation at the start of the new year, bettors on Canadian sportsbook Bet99 had the Conservative Party winning the upcoming election at -1600 odds on Jan. 6. Since then, the odds dropped to +220 as of April 17.
PolyMarket, a trading platform, also saw a drop in Poilievre’s chances of becoming the next PM. On Jan. 15, the Conservative Party leader was leading the odds with a 92.5% lead over the Liberal Party. Yet, after Mark Carney was sworn in on March 14, the Liberal Party gradually gained the edge over the Conservatives with an 83% lead as of April 23.
Canada first
Poilievre, a conservative populist, drew inspiration from Trump’s political style. He campaigns similarly and even copies Trump's approach to slogans, coining the phrase ‘Canada First’. He's also bragged about the size of the crowds at his rallies and attacked journalists.
He'd planned to make the election, which takes place on April 28, a referendum on former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose popularity declined near the end of his term. Much of his rise in the polls was due to his attacks on Trudeau, but Trudeau’s resignation and Trump’s attacks on Canada torpedoed Poilievre’s plans.
In particular, Trump’s targeting of the United States’ traditional ally leaves Poilievre with little room to maneuver. He's called for Trump to stop attacking Canada and proposed a renegotiation of the trade deal with the U.S., along with a suspension of tariffs, but hasn’t attacked Trump with the same ferocity he aimed at Trudeau.
Trump election
Instead of a referendum on the Liberal Party’s period in government, the election has developed into a focus on which leader is best equipped to deal with Trump amid a surge in nationalist support, which coalesced around the Liberal Party and its new leader, Mark Carney.
Meanwhile, Trump, who's recently been the subject of interest to gamblers regarding his chances of running for a third term, shows no signs of wanting to help Poilievre. While he's said his views are closer to Poilievre’s than Carney’s, he's been critical of the Conservative Party leader. He appears unconcerned his trade policies boost the Liberals.
Carney’s party is a minority government, having fallen 12 seats short of an outright majority at the last election in 2021, when it earned a smaller share of the vote than the Conservatives.
