A staff member at a U.S.-based think tank was reportedly fired last month for altering a Ukrainian war map that helped individuals profit from a prediction market.
Key Takeaways
- Prediction platform Polymarket settled contracts using a map that was edited.
- The researcher involved in the manipulation was reportedly fired.
- Polymarket and other prediction markets have come under fire in recent months.
Polymarket uses the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C., to settle war-related contracts, including the fight between Russia and Ukraine, according to a report from Responsible Statecraft.
A staffer purposely edited the map just before the market was to settle, showing that Russia had taken control of the eastern Ukrainian town of Myrnohrad, but there was no other evidence that forces had done so. The event was unlikely to play out, but since Polymarket used the map to determine the market, users who purchased contracts that Russia would take the city made as much as 33,000% on their buy-in.
The market had taken $1.3 million worth of contracts.
“It has come to ISW’s attention that an unauthorized and unapproved edit to the interactive map of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was made on the night of November 15-16 EST,” the ISW posted on its website last month. “The unauthorized edit was removed before the day’s normal workflow began on November 16 and did not affect ISW mapping on that or any subsequent day. The edit did not form any part of the assessment of authorized map changes on that or any other day. We apologize to our readers and the users of our maps for this incident.”
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Disapproval of map use
The edit, showing Russia was controlling a key Myrnohrad intersection, was removed the next day. A day later, one of the ISW’s researchers involved with the maps was taken off the website, and Responsible Statecraft reported that the individual was fired.
ISW told 404 Media that the group has become aware “some organizations and individuals are promoting betting on the course of the war in Ukraine, and the ISW’s maps are being used to adjudicate that betting.”
The ISW also said it “strongly” disapproves, “strenuously” objects, and doesn’t give consent to its maps being used for purposes of settling prediction markets. The think tank’s maps are generally used by the military, governments, and media to assess changes to the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Polymarket users were upset about the market wrongfully settling.
I hope you lost a lot of money because of this. Betting on war and destruction is ethically indefensible and morally reprehensible.
— Drei (@sweetcell) November 19, 2025
Since you probably didn't understand that last part: you are a monster. I'd say you should be ashamed, but clearly shame is beyond your grasp.
Issues, concerns
The global crypto-based prediction market began a soft relaunch in the U.S. last week, offering sports contracts to select users through a waitlist. Polymarket left the U.S. market in 2022 but acquired QCEX, a federally regulated exchange and clearinghouse, in July, giving the major prediction platform a way back into the market.
Event contract exchange companies like Kalshi and Polymarket have come under fire in recent months, especially since Kalshi and others began offering markets for major sports like the NFL, NBA, and MLB. Gaming regulators in several legal sports betting states, like Nevada, are currently engaged in court battles with Kalshi.
Polymarket offers hundreds of non-sports-related markets based on war, politics, economies, and finances. There have been public outcries over the morality of some markets and concern for the manipulation of all types of markets, similar to what reportedly occurred with the ISW. The Commodity Trading Futures Commission regulates U.S. prediction markets, but the federal agency does not get involved in potential insider trading.
