A clear Super Bowl LX betting pattern has emerged heading into the weekend.
Key Takeaways
- Seattle is still drawing the majority of spread bets and handle, but the Patriots are popular on the moneyline.
- Super Bowl lines are holding steady and will need some smart money to move them.
- A new wagering market and sports betting growth across the U.S. could make the Big Game the biggest yet.
While bettors who like the 4.5-point favored Seahawks in Sunday’s Big Game in Santa Clara, California, are happy laying the points, those backing the underdog Patriots simply aren’t bothering with the spread.
“Even though the line has been kind of stagnant, we have taken money on the Seahawks laying the points, but on the other side of that, they’re betting the Patriots on the moneyline +190, +195,” DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told Covers on Friday. “The Patriots bettors don’t want to lay juice. They’d rather ake a shot with the moneyline.”
This is certainly how it’s playing out at DraftKings, which reported that 62% of the spread bets and 66% of the money is on Seattle. New England is getting 55% of the tickets and handle on the moneyline at +190.
The Patriots have also taken more outright winner wagers than the Seahawks at BetMGM, while the money is still on the favorite. TheScore Bet has seen 64% of the spread bets on Seattle, which is getting a lesser 57% of the moneyline tickets.
| Seahawks-Patriots | DraftKings splits | BetMGM splits | theScore Bet splits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | (SEA -4.5) SEA 62% bets SEA 66% handle |
(SEA -4.5) SEA 59% bets SEA 56% handle |
(SEA -4.5) SEA 64% bets SEA 73% handle |
| Moneyline | (SEA -230, NE +190) NE 55% bets NE 55% handle |
(SEA -235, NE +195) |
(SEA -230, NE +190) SEA 57% bets SEA 62% handle |
| Total | (45.5) O 50% bets U 53% handle |
(45.5) |
(45.5) O 58% bets O 54% handle |
Where’s the movement?
Most sportsbooks opened the Super Bowl LX spread at 3.5 shortly after the AFC and NFL championship games wrapped up. Bettors quickly moved that line up a point by Monday morning.
A few shops have flashed -5 in Las Vegas, but most books have been hesitant to bump the line up despite all the Seattle backing.
Avello said DraftKings’ strategy was to try to get Seattle money on the spread since they are holding heavy liabilities in the futures markets on the Patriots.
“It wouldn’t be good for us if the Pats win the game,” Avello said. “Hawks winning by 1,2,3,4 would be best for us.”
The total of 45.5 points has also been stagnant for much of the last two weeks. Sure, there’s a heavy volume of wagering to come, especially on Sunday, but for the spread and total to see much movement, Avello said it’ll take sharp groups taking a strong stand, which hasn’t happened yet.
Major action
The Seahawks and Patriots lack some of the star power that recent Super Bowls have had, but there doesn’t appear to be a lack of betting interest, and sportsbook executives are expecting record wagering numbers, especially with so many player props and novelty markets to draw in the public.
“These are fresh teams. These are a couple of teams that are known and have a good following,” Avello said. “There are a lot of new players to use to make different types of props for us bookmakers. It’s a welcoming sight to have these two teams in it, and I think the public feels the same way.”
With Missouri on board, there are now 39 U.S. states offering legal sports betting, the most since PASPA was overturned in 2018. Avello said more people in older jurisdictions are wagering, and some who don’t bet regularly still get in on the action in big events like the Super Bowl.
Live betting, which has grown exponentially over the last couple of years, will also drive a ton of action during the game. DraftKings is running a $5 million promotion to capture the momentum of in-play betting.
All of this, along with the explosion of prediction markets, could generate a record amount of Super Bowl wagering.
“I think the wagering is going to be robust,” Avello said. “I’m optimistic it’s always going to be a great (Super Bowl) handle.”
Canadian experience
While wagering in the U.S. receives much attention, Canadian sportsbooks are also gearing up for a massive Big Game, especially with Ontario offering novelty props not available in the states. The national anthem and halftime show markets are receiving attention.
“Super Bowl betting has been nicely balanced overall, with a slight lean to the Seahawks on the spread and Patriots moneyline as the underdog,” Bet99 Sportsbook manager Cliff Adelman said. “The biggest liability right now is the Over, which has been one-way traffic.
“Our bettors are piling into Kenneth Walker III and JSN to score a TD, especially as a cornerstone to their SGPs. We had to pull national anthem odds with the possibility of leaks during rehearsals, but not before we saw a ton of bets on it going over 120 seconds. We also slashed Blue to Gatorade Shower favorite at +250 after it got hammered down from its +600 open.”
