Gone are the days when NFL player props only grabbed bettors’ attention during the Super Bowl.
Key Takeaways
- Player props have become a major betting source for sportsbooks over time.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Kenneth Walker are seeing a lot of love from bettors.
- Quarterbacks’ over rushing totals are all the rage for the Super Bowl.
Now, the phenomenon of wagering on a running back’s rushing totals or how many touchdowns a quarterback throws for or who scores the game’s first touchdown has become typical, heavily bet common markets for all contests.
Mike Palm, the vice president of operations at Circa Sports in Las Vegas, says the thirst for constant player props comes from a new era of bettors who grew up playing fantasy sports.
“It’s really a generational thing, and the sportsbooks have adjusted by offering more and more props,” Palm told Covers on Tuesday. “It used to be we got to the Super Bowl, and it was so much fun because you’ve got all of these props. Now, you get a lot of them in every game.”
The popularity of props has infiltrated the betting industry to the degree that Palm said bets on player stats in the NBA and NHL are even greater than sides and totals wagers. That isn’t the case in the NFL, and certainly not in Sunday’s Super Bowl LX, but player props will still play an integral role in the overall handle for the Big Game between the Seahawks (-4.5) and Patriots.
“It’s what the public expects, but it’s on steroids with the Super Bowl,” Palm said. “Some books have tens of thousands of props, and probably every book at least has hundreds.”
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Star treatment
There’s still plenty of time for bettors to get in on Super Bowl LX, and much of the game’s wagering will take place over the weekend, but there are already several trending players in early reports.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is already popular among the public and one of the most-best Super Bowl MVP candidates. Seattle’s star receiver leads the anytime touchdown scorer market at FanDuel, BetMGM, and theScore Bet, even with minus odds. Smith-Njigba also tops BetMGM’s first touchdown scorer market with +550 odds.
Another Seahawks player familiar to fantasy players and NFL bettors getting attention this week is running back Kenneth Walker III, who’s the second most-bet anytime touchdown scorer at theScore Bet. The online operator also reported that Walker to find the end zone at least once is the most-bet leg among player parlay bettors.
BetMGM said Walker’s over 20.5 receiving yards (-145) and under 70.5 rushing yards (+105) are the two most-bet Super Bowl player props. That rushing total under also makes him the most-bet player in the operator’s rushing market, and 83% of the handle is on Walker to fall short of 71 yards.
QBs gaining ground
One area where sportsbooks really open up a ton of markets is for the Big Game’s quarterbacks. There are countless betting options, including passing attempts, interceptions thrown, and longest completion. However, bettors seem fixated on rushing stats for the position as well.
Palm said New England QB Drake Maye’s rushing total has seen a ton of action to the over, going from 28.5 yards at the open to 37.5 yards as of early this week. BetMGM reported that 96% of the handle and 82% of the tickets are on Maye’s rushing total to go over. His longest rush of 13.5 yards is getting 95% of the bets.
He’s also in the top three at FanDuel, BetMGM, and theScore Bet to score an anytime touchdown.
His counterpart, Seattle’s Sam Darnold, is receiving heavy action at DraftKings on over 200+ passing yards and 2+ passing touchdown markets. BetMGM customers like Darnold to rush for over 6.5 yards and run the ball at least three times. He’s getting over 90% of the over bets in both of those markets, while 87% of the money is on Darnold to throw at least one interception. However, the under 241.5 passing and rushing yards combined market has seen 80% of the handle.
Popularity contest
Those might be some of the bigger names receiving wagering attention for Super Bowl LX, but there are certainly some long shots and less heralded players that bettors are loading up on.
theScore Bet customers are including New England running back Rhamondre Stevenson to score a touchdown in a lot of parlays, and he ranks fourth among all players in the operator’s anytime touchdown scorer market. Backfield mate TreVeyon Henderson’s over 16.5 rushing yards is the third most-bet rushing prop at BetMGM.
Seattle wideout Cooper Kupp to go over 30+ receiving yards is another popular bet. New England receiver Stefon Diggs is seeing plenty of attention in the anytime touchdown scorer market, as is tight end Hunter Henry. His over 38.5 receiving yards is third in the pass-catching category market. Seattle backup running back George Holani to catch over 1.5 passes (-140) is the fourth most-bet player prop by tickets overall at BetMGM.
