If Saturday’s NFL doubleheader is an indicator for the rest of Week 16, sportsbooks are going to be pulling awfully hard for underdogs in another big slate for playoff hopefuls.
Key Takeaways
- The Eagles and Bears are getting pounded by the public.
- The Lions, Bills, and Broncos are among Sunday’s popular favorites.
- Some unusual teams are getting bettors’ attention.
The Eagles still need to win to claim the NFC East title in the early game against the Commanders, who are touchdown underdogs at home. The Bears are very popular 1.5-point favorites against the Packers in Saturday’s key NFC North showdown.
Chicago is getting the majority of tickets and money at three major sportsbooks, including 89% of the handle at BetMGM.
“The public is loving a hot Chicago Bears team as a small home favorite this week, along with the Philadelphia Eagles as a touchdown road favorite,” BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said. “All of the most-bet (money) teams are favorites. A few underdogs covering or winning outright would be a good outcome for the sportsbook.”
The Eagles are the second-most popular wager at the online sportsbook so far for Week 16. Philadelphia is dominating the betting at all three sportsbooks, with theScore Bet reporting nearly all the money coming in on the road favorite.
| Week 16 Games | DraftKings Splits | BetMGM Splits | theScore Bet splits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles-Commanders (+7) | PHI 81% bets PHI 71% handle |
PHI 79% bets PHI 66% handle |
PHI 87% bets PHI 96% handle |
| Packers-Bears (-1.5) | CHI 63% bets CHI 78% handle |
CHI 82% bets CHI 89% handle |
CHI 66% bets CHI 73% handle |
| Bills-Browns (+10.5) | BUF 78% bets BUF 79% handle |
BUF 80% bets BUF 88% handle |
BUF 84% bets BUF 84% handle |
| Buccaneers-Panthers (+3) | TB 51% bets CAR 50% handle |
TB 53% bets TB 62% handle |
CAR 54% bets TB 59% handle |
| Chargers-Cowboys (-1.5) | LAC 65% bets DAL 56% handle |
LAC 82% bets LAC 78% handle |
LAC 74% bets DAL 70% handle |
| Vikings-Giants (+3) | MIN 72% bets NYG 67% handle |
MIN 65% bets MIN 60% handle |
MIN 85% bets MIN 82% handle |
| Chiefs-Titans (+3) | TEN 54% bets TEN 78% handle |
TEN 63% bets TEN 80% handle |
TEN 51% bets TEN 59% handle |
| Bengals-Dolphins (+4.5) | CIN 68% bets MIA 55% handle |
CIN 71% bets CIN 79% handle |
CIN 71% bets CIN 95% handle |
| Jets-Saints (-5.5) | NO 60% bets NO 67% handle |
NO 71% bets NO 70% handle |
NO 63% bets NO 74% handle |
| Jaguars-Broncos (-3) | DEN 63% bets DEN 83% handle |
DEN 81% bets DEN 65% handle |
DEN 53% bets JAX 56% handle |
| Falcons-Cardinals (+3) | ATL 64% bets ATL 58% handle |
ATL 73% bets ATL 87% handle |
ATL 67% bets ARI 55% handle |
| Steelers-Lions (-7) | DET 63% bets DET 56% handle |
DET 66% bets DET 78% handle |
DET 66% bets DET 90% handle |
| Raiders-Texans (-14.5) | HOU 70% bets LV 86% handle |
HOU 57% bets LV 65% handle |
HOU 89% bets HOU 95% handle |
| Patriots-Ravens (-3) | NE 72% bets BAL 61% handle |
NE 73% bets BAL 70% handle |
NE 79% bets NE 81% handle |
| 49ers-Colts (+6) | SF 69% bets SF 74% handle |
SF 61% bets SF 72% handle |
SF 68% bets SF 72% handle |
In favor with the public
There isn’t a single underdog among BetMGM’s most-bet teams by handle, and just one underdog (New England +3) snuck into the top five in tickets, the operator reported. The Ravens, whom the Patriots visit in prime time Sunday night, are getting 70% of the handle as the second most-bet team at BetMGM, and DraftKings has seen over 60% of the money come in on the favorites.
The 49ers (-7 on Monday night), Lions (-7), Bills (-10.5), and Broncos (-3) are other heavily bet favorites in Week 16.
In one of the most split games of the week, bettors are having a hard time figuring out what to do with an NFC South clash between the Buccaneers (-3) and the Panthers, which has major divisional implications.
“There are some really good games this week to go a long way to see who’s going to win divisions and who’s going to make the playoffs,” DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello said. “As usual, pro football is live and well and a lot of exciting games as we get to the end of the season.”
Betting oddities
Some different betting patterns tend to emerge this late in the season. Between injuries, divisional familiarity, and teams with no postseason hopes, bettors can be all over the place on some games.
For instance, the Titans, who have been routinely bet against almost all season, no matter the spread, are getting a significant percentage of money and tickets against the Chiefs, who lost quarterback Patrick Mahomes and their playoff hopes in last week’s loss to the Chargers.
Bettors do not seem to want to trust Kansas City backup Gardner Minshew, whose team is getting 23% of the moneyline handle at BetMGM.
The spread’s handle and tickets are split on the Chargers at DraftKings and theScore Bet, but BetMGM has seen 78% of the money back underdog Los Angeles, the most-bet underdog for the operator, in a must-win game for Dallas. Bettors are split on Joe Burrow and the recently playoff-eliminated Bengals against the Dolphins, who turn to backup QB Quinn Ewers this week.
A week ago, the Falcons were in the midst of a two-game losing skid. After a win over the Bucs, the public is pounding the 3-point favorites at Arizona. The suddenly hot Saints are popular 5.5-point favorites over the Jets, and the struggling Raiders are taking more money as massive 14.5-point underdogs than the improved Texans.
Totals, props
The Packers-Bears over is the most popular total at theScore Bet, followed by Eagles-Commanders over and Bucs-Panthers over.
BetMGM reported that the public is all over the Bills-Browns under, Falcons-Cardinals over, and Steelers-Lions over.
As for props, Denver quarterback Bo Nix over 235.5 passing yards is driving the market, while Buffalo receiver Khalil Shakir (+240) is the most-bet anytime touchdown scorer, followed by Eagles wideout A.J. Brown (+125) and Bills QB Josh Allen (-120).
