A new report published by CBS News’ 60 Minutes Overtime found that nine accounts linked to prediction market operator Polymarket have accumulated over $2.4 million in trades on U.S. military action in Iran, according to data from analytics firm Bubblemaps.
The news comes as scrutiny towards the prediction market industry continues to grow.
Key Takeaways
- Nine linked Polymarket accounts reportedly made more than $2.4 million on Iran-related military event contracts.
- Bubblemaps found repeated date-specific trades.
- War-related prediction markets face heavier scrutiny because sensitive information can reach insiders before public disclosure.
“We spotted nine Polymarket accounts, all connected, who made, collectively,$2.4 million betting almost exclusively on U.S. military operations,” says Nicolas Vaiman, co-founder of the small data analytics firm Bubblemaps.
— 60 Minutes (@60Minutes) May 17, 2026
“And now here's the crazy part: 98% win rate.”… pic.twitter.com/YQmRSn30UW
The accounts were anonymous, but Bubblemaps said the activity showed a striking pattern: more than 80 trades, a 98% win rate, and repeated trades on specific dates connected to major wartime developments. Those included U.S. strikes, the removal of Iran's supreme leader, and a ceasefire announcement.
The report placed those trades inside a wider debate over prediction markets and nonpublic information. More than $1 billion has reportedly been staked this year on military decisions and outcomes, creating a sharp enforcement problem for regulators.
Betting on military outcomes has become increasingly popular on prediction markets. One digital investigator says these markets are vulnerable to corruption because so many people may have access to inside information. https://t.co/GXoMbGWflF pic.twitter.com/5JguJPRgep
— 60 Minutes (@60Minutes) May 17, 2026
Military events can involve officials, planners, analysts, service members, and families who may learn sensitive details before the public does. That makes war-related contracts unusually exposed to information leaks.
CBS also reported that federal investigators are examining oil-market trades made shortly before a March 23 announcement about U.S.-Iran talks. No charges have been filed in connection with those trades.
On March 23, more than $800 million was staked on the chance of oil prices dropping. Fifteen minutes later, an announcement from the president sent the price of oil plummeting by more than 10%.
— 60 Minutes (@60Minutes) May 17, 2026
It has not been determined if the trade was made with inside information or if the… pic.twitter.com/JWsZvO2ocp
Polymarket told the program that it refers suspicious activity to law enforcement and cooperates with investigations.
"When our systems identify suspicious activity, we act — including through referrals to law enforcement and cooperation with investigations," and "insider trading is not welcome on Polymarket, and those who attempt it will be identified,” the operator said.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversees the regulation of prediction markets in the U.S., while the White House has warned staff that using nonpublic information on prediction markets can be a criminal offense.
