While Ohio State is still favored to win the College Football Playoff, bettors are backing Penn State to win the national championship more than any other team.
According to BetMGM, Penn State has the high mark with 10.5% of tickets to win the national championship, ahead of both Texas and LSU (10%), to go with 13.2% of the handle.
Key Takeaways
- Penn State is only just off outright championship favorite Ohio State (+550).
- Oklahoma has shortened from +7,000 at opening down to +2,000.
- Texas still has the highest share of the handle despite its slow start.
The Nittany Lions opened at +850 and are down to +600 after a 3-0 start, during which they outscored their opponents 132-17. Their first test of the season will come next Saturday when they host sixth-ranked Oregon (+700 to win the national championship).
Penn State’s national championship odds are only just behind reigning champion, Ohio State. The Buckeyes opened at +450 but are slightly down to +550 even though they are also 3-0 and beat Texas in Week 1.
Speaking of the Longhorns, their 15.5% share of the total handle for national championship futures is the highest in the nation. However, they’ve lengthened from +550 at opening to +700 to win their first title since 2005.
Fellow SEC team Georgia opened and remains at +600 following its overtime victory over Tennessee. Despite that, the Bulldogs are responsible for just 5.2% of bets and 3.7% of money in the national championship futures market.
Mixed in with the leaders is LSU, which shortened from +2,000 at opening to +1,000. The Tigers already beat Clemson on the road and Florida at home, giving bettors the confidence to give them the second-highest split of tickets (10%) and third-highest share of the handle (11.7%) to win the CFP.
Stock up, stock down
Oklahoma isn't a Tier 1 contender but has picked up more steam than any other team in national championship odds.
Led by quarterback John Mateer, one of the top two candidates in Heisman odds, the Sooners are 3-0 with a standout victory over No. 15 Michigan and an average margin of victory of 24 points.
BetMGM gave Oklahoma +7,000 odds when the market first opened, but they’re now down to +2,000. Despite that, they still only have 1.8% of tickets and 1.5% of the handle.
Miami and Florida State have also made substantial ground on the odds board. The Hurricanes are at +2,000 after opening at +3,500, while the Seminoles moved from +10,000 at opening to +5,000. The teams have a combined 4.9% of tickets and 6.3% of money backing them.
In the opposite vein, Clemson and Notre Dame are headed in the wrong direction.
Both schools are just 1-2, and in the Fighting Irish's case, they’re in grave danger of failing to qualify for the CFP due to their lack of an auto-bid. Clemson lengthened from +2,000 to +5,000 to win the natty, while Notre Dame went from +1,200 to +2,500.
South Carolina also ballooned from +4,000 at opening to +15,000 after quarterback LaNorris Sellers was knocked out of last weekend’s loss to Vanderbilt with a head injury.
Where are the 'sharps'?
Texas was the most popular pick to win the national championship during the offseason. Despite its uninspiring performances thus far, the “sharp money” is still behind the Longhorns, as their handle is 5.5 percentage points ahead of their ticket share.
Penn State, the flavor of the month, also has “sharp money,” with a 2.7 percentage-point differential between handle and ticket share.
Georgia has the worst differential, with a ticket share 1.5% larger than its split of the handle.
