They started further down the board, but top sportsbooks now have Miami quarterback Carson Beck and Oklahoma QB John Mateer leading the race to win the Heisman Trophy.
Key Takeaways
- Beck was only a +2,000 underdog to win the award when odds were first published.
- Joey Aguilar was off the board three weeks ago but is now +1,200.
- Arch Manning has 14.3% of the handle behind him but fell to +3,000.
Beck’s ascent so far is unexpected. According to BetMGM’s insights, the former Georgia gunslinger opened at +2,000 and was at +2,200 when Week 1 kicked off.
In the weeks since, Beck’s odds have shortened to +1,200, +100, and the current value of +700 (12.5% implied chance). Despite that, he only has 3.8% of tickets and 6.9% of the handle backing him.
The Miami star’s Herculean climb in odds was nearly mirrored by Mateer, whose season began with him finding himself linked to illegal sports betting.
Mateer opened at +2,500 and didn’t move before Week 1. His odds dropped to +1,300 in Week 2 and +800 in Week 3. He’s currently +900 with 5.3% of tickets and 5.7% of money.
Tennessee QB Joey Aguilar has made up the most ground on the leaders. He’s currently fourth at+1,200, only trailing Beck, Mateer, and Oregon’s Dante Moore after opening at +5,000 and being off the board before Week 1.
Aguilar - who only has 1.2% of tickets and 1.6% of the money - shrank from +5,000 entering the weekend after he accrued up 371 passing yards, five total touchdowns, and two interceptions against Georgia.
.@Vol_Football +145 were the most bet underdog to win on Saturday at @BetMGM
— John Ewing (@johnewing) September 13, 2025
Kicker just missed game-winner 😬
Game heading to OT.
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER pic.twitter.com/E5rOJ8COnE
The underdog and his Volunteers ultimately fell in front of their home fans 44-41 to the Bulldogs in overtime.
On the other side, Georgia’s Gunner Stockton shortened slightly to +1,200 after he picked up 342 total yards and three touchdowns in the victory.
Who’s trending down?
As the Heisman odds continue to evolve, Texas quarterback Arch Manning is firmly headed in the wrong direction.
The preseason favorite at +600 moved from +1,200 entering the weekend to +3,000 after he went for 114 passing yards, three total touchdowns, and an interception in a 27-10 win against UTEP. Manning completed just 44% of his passes and threw only one touchdown, and he now ranks 88th in QBR for the year.
Manning still has 10.9% of the tickets and 14.3% of the money behind him.
LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier has also failed to live up to the preseason hype. After opening as the leader at +850, he’s now +1,500 after going for 220 yards, a touchdown, and an interception in a win over Florida. He hasn’t scored more than one touchdown or thrown for more than 237 yards in any of his three games.
Two other notable quarterbacks, LaNorris Sellers and Cade Klubnik, are almost already out of the race despite being among the top preseason candidates.
Sellers, who was lost to a head injury during Saturday’s defeat to Vanderbilt, is now at +8,000 after being as low as +700 in Week 2. Klubnik is down all the way to +10,000 amid Clemson’s 1-2 start after being at +900 in Week 1.
What about non-QBs?
Ohio State phenom and wide receiver Jeremiah Smith Jr., the leader of all non-quarterbacks, has moved from +1,000 in Week 1 to +1,600. However, he’s gotten better each game and just had nine receptions for 153 yards and a touchdown against Ohio.
Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love is exactly where he opened over the summer at +5,000. However, it's a noticeable step back from where he was in Week 2 (+2,500).
