Just days after John Mateer became the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, an injury to the Oklahoma quarterback has adjusted the futures betting market’s odds once again.
Key Takeaways
- Oklahoma’s quarterback will miss multiple games following hand surgery on Wednesday
- Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza has risen to the favorite role
- The Sooners were affected in other betting markets as well
Sooners head coach Brent Venables announced on Tuesday that the Washington State transfer is scheduled to have surgery on his right hand on Wednesday, which will sideline him for multiple weeks.
"After consulting with medical experts, it became clear that surgery is the best option for John and his short - and long-term future," Venables said. "He's extremely disappointed he will miss some game action, but is eager to correct the issue and move forward. As he is with everything, we know he will be aggressive with his rehabilitation and work to return to the field as quickly as possible."
Change at the top
Mateer became sportsbooks’ favorite in the Heisman market after he totaled 300 yards and scored two touchdowns in No. 7 Oklahoma’s 24-17 win over Auburn last Saturday. BetMGM listed him at +700 after Week 4, but shortly after the news of impending surgery broke, Mateer moved back to +2200.
No. 11 Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza took over the favorite role with odds of +650 to win the Heisman as Mateer fell back to 14th in BetMGM’s market.
ESPN BET said Mateer was at +750, the shortest odds in the Heisman betting market, shortly after Oklahoma’s big win on Saturday. His odds went to +2000 and now shifted to an even higher +4000 on Wednesday.
Taking better options
Mendoza, ESPN BET’s favorite at +650, was still as high as +3500 before Saturday’s 63-10 win over Illinois. His odds shortened to +1100 after the game, and he’s seen the most bets at 14.7% and the most money at 25.2% in the market since then.
Miami’s Carson Beck, last week’s favorite, is listed second behind Mendoza at ESPN BET with odds of +1000. His number got as low as +650.
Between Saturday morning and Tuesday afternoon, Mateer had taken 9.5% of the money in ESPN BET’s Heisman market, second-most behind Mendoza.
Following the injury news, USC quarterback Jayden Maiava has drawn the most attention from bettors with 20.2% of the handle. Washington QB Desmond Williams Jr. has taken the most action with 22.8% of the tickets, with LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier being the only other player to receive double-digit percentage in bets since Mateer’s injury news.
Market moves
Odds makers have adjusted other college football markets since the news. OU opened the National Championship betting at +7000 but got to as short as +1500 coming off that Week 4 Auburn win at BetMGM. After Tuesday’s setback, the Sooners fell back to +1500. They’ve taken less than 2% of the market’s bets and 1.5% of the handle.
ESPN BET made a lesser move, pushing OU from +1600 after last Saturday to +2000, where the Sooners were after Week 3.
Mateer could reportedly miss at least a month of games. That would include the Red River Rivalry with No. 10 Texas and preseason Heisman favorite Arch Manning. The Sooners host Kent State before that massive SEC game, and then they play at South Carolina and at home against No. 13 Ole Miss.
Those are three huge league games that could hurt OU’s chances of making the College Football Playoff and winning the conference. Before Tuesday, the Sooners were listed sixth in BetMGM’s SEC winner market with odds of +800, shortened from the preseason’s +2500 and +2200 after Week 3. Mateer’s injury pushed them back to eighth with league odds of +1500.
