John Mateer opened well behind other candidates with more name-brand value, but the Oklahoma quarterback is now the favorite in Heisman Trophy odds.
Key Takeaways
- Mateer only had a 3.9% implied chance to win the award when odds opened.
- Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza is shockingly up to second after routing No. 9 Illinois.
- Arch Manning finally shortened in odds after a disappointing start to the year.
Mateer, a Washington State transfer, was only +2,500 when Heisman odds were first posted during the offseason.
One month into the 2025 college football season, the junior gunslinger leads all candidates while posting a stat line of 1,125 passing yards, 190 rushing yards, and 11 total touchdowns to three interceptions.
The Sooners star’s surge to the top of the board came at the expense of Miami’s Carson Beck. The former Georgia star was the leader at several top sportsbooks just last week, but he’s down to +1,200 after he only had 160 yards and an interception in a win over Florida on Saturday. Beck opened at +2,000 and had been as high as +700 last week.
Beck is tied with Oregon’s Dante Moore, who amassed 1,049 total yards, 11 passing touchdowns, and an interception en route to a 4-0 start. Moore, like Beck, was also +2,000 at opening.
Mateer’s top rival for the Heisman through four weeks is Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, a +5,500 underdog at the time of opening. The California transfer already has 975 yards and 16 total touchdowns in four games for his new school, the most recent of which was a 63-10 demolition of No. 9 Illinois.
Georgia QB Gunner Stockton completes the top five at +1,400, well above his opening line of +3,500.
Signal-callers Marcel Reed (Texas A&M), Josh Hoover (TCU), Joey Aguilar (Tennessee), and Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) are all even at +1,500. Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith Jr. (+1,600) and Julian Sayin (+1,700) are just behind.
Significant movement
One of college football's biggest stories so far is the disappointing campaign of Arch Manning, the preseason Heisman odds leader.
The Texas QB is only +2,500 to win the award after opening at +900 and creeping as high as +600. Manning had his best game of the season Saturday, completing 85.7% of his passes en route to 309 yards and five total touchdowns in a blowout victory over Sam Houston State, 55-0.
Manning’s odds are an improvement on the +3,000 number he found himself at last week, but they’re still well off the leaders.
Penn State’s Drew Allar has also lost a considerable amount of momentum in the betting markets. A +1,300 preseason candidate, he’s now +3,000 with 626 yards, four touchdowns, and an interception in three games.
While those two have fallen, several others have made noticeable leaps up the board. Alabama’s Ty Simpson, Florida State’s Tommy Castellanos, and USC’s Jayden Maiava are at +2,000 after they opened at +5,500, +6,000, and +6,000, respectively.
Georgia Tech’s Haynes King moved to +2,500 after opening at +9,000 (1.1% implied chance).
Important weekend matchups
The upcoming week of college football action has several high-profile matchups that could play huge roles in the Heisman race.
No. 6 Oregon will visit No. 3 Penn State in a chance for Moore and Allar to improve their stock. No. 17 Alabama will visit No. 5 Georgia, while No. 4 LSU will travel to face No. 13 Ole Miss.
