As the San Antonio Spurs prepare to meet the New York Knicks in the NBA Cup final Tuesday, oddsmakers remain convinced a different team will hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy in the spring.
Key Takeaways
- The NBA Cup final losers either made the conference finals or won the NBA title.
- No team that lost the NBA Cup semifinal made it past the first round of the playoffs.
- Three teams are listed ahead of the Knicks, and six ahead of the Spurs in NBA title odds.
The NBA Cup was born out of an idea to mimic European soccer leagues, which frequently compete in mid-season competitions separate from their domestic league.
The inaugural championship game was played Dec. 9, 2023, when the Los Angeles Lakers beat the Indiana Pacers, 123-109.
Sadly for the Lakers, they eventually fell to the Denver Nuggets in only five games in the first round of the playoffs.
The losing Pacers shocked the basketball world by going on a run to the conference finals, two rounds further than the Lakers. They were eventually swept by the Boston Celtics, who went on to win the title.
Half a year later, the Milwaukee Bucks took on the Oklahoma City Thunder in the second NBA Cup final. The Bucks entered as underdogs but held the favorites to just 81 points and were crowned champs.
Despite that victory, and like the Lakers, fortune didn’t favor the Bucks. They were knocked out of the playoffs by the Pacers, who ended up going on a magical run to the NBA Finals.
The Thunder, meanwhile, responded from the loss to not only reach, but win the Finals in seven games.
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Cup doesn't convince oddsmakers
So, what’s the takeaway?
Not only has an NBA Cup champion never gone on to win the Larry O’Brien Trophy, but both winners were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. While the Knicks and Spurs are fighting for glory, both could be putting their long-term future at risk, if the trend holds.
The Cup runner-up has a much better track record, reaching the conference finals or Finals both times.
Sportsbooks’ NBA Finals winner odds also indicate Tuesday’s victor will still have a long way to go to prove it is the best team in the league.
According to FanDuel, the defending champion Thunder are already -105 to win their second straight title (and the second in the franchise’s history). Those odds translate to a 51.2% implied chance.
After them are the Nuggets (+750) and the Houston Rockets (+1,200), before the Knicks check in at +1,300 (7.1% implied chance).
The Cleveland Cavaliers (+1,900) and Lakers (+2,200) also have better odds than the Spurs, who are down at +2,500 (3.9% chance).
Thunder in trouble?
If the NBA title odds are any indication, it will take a lot for a team to beat the Thunder in a seven-game series. However, the Spurs already stole their chunk of flesh, eliminating OKC in the Cup quarterfinal.
The New Orleans Pelicans and Pacers, the 2023-24 Cup semifinal losers, and the Atlanta Hawks and the Rockets, the 2024-25 Cup semi losers, all either did not make the playoffs or were eliminated in the first round.
So, if history repeats itself, it could spell trouble for the Thunder and Orlando Magic, both of whom lost in this year's semifinals.
