The NFL produced another up-and-down day for the sportsbooks on Sunday, but the public won the most-bet game of Week 15.
Key Takeaways
- The Bills came from behind again to be the biggest win for the public on Sunday.
- Four double-digit favorites covered and won in Week 15.
- The Steelers are a 3-point favorite at home on Monday night.
Favorites went 8-6 against the spread and 9-5 on the moneyline, including the highly-popular Buffalo Bills, who rallied from a three-touchdown deficit to beat the Patriots 35-31 as a 3.5-point favorite.
The Jaguars, Texans, Bears, Eagles, and 49ers all covered double-digit spreads, while the Seahawks beat the Colts by just two points as a -13.5 favorite against the 44-year-old, out-of-retirement quarterback Phillip Rivers.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account“Overall, it was a mixed bag of results today,” said Joey Feazel, Caesars Sportsbook head of football. “The decision of the (early schedule) was the Patriots/Bills game, with the need being the Patriots. Despite a large lead, they ended up with a loss that ended in favor of our customers. In the (late slate), Philip Rivers keeping things close went in our favor, as well as the Saints and Broncos getting it done.”
Public pounds Bills, favorites
Buffalo came from behind for the second consecutive week, igniting live bettors who jumped on this team when it trailed in the first half. The Bills were also a popular wager before Sunday.
The line was -1.5 heading into the weekend, but with over 60% of the money in the most-bet game of the week at multiple sportsbooks coming in on Buffalo, the Patriots closed as more than a field-goal underdog.
This led to the biggest win of the week for the public, as 69% of the handle and 66% of the tickets at BetMGM backed the favorite.
“The Bills were a popular selection both before and during the game, both on the spread and moneyline,” Feazel said. “Their comeback was thoroughly appreciated by bettors as we head for a late battle of the AFC East.”
The public also did well on the Eagles, the most-bet team by handle in Week 15 at theScore Bet. Philadelphia easily covered as a 12.5-point favorite in a 31-0 shutout of the Raiders. The 49ers had no trouble getting past the Titans 37-24, but half-point cover went the way of the public as 94% of the money at theScore Bet backed San Francisco.
The Texans (-10) had the most money of all spread teams at BetMGM, and they pulled bettors through with a 40-20 win over the Cardinals.
“The Texans are slowly becoming a team that many playoff teams might want to avoid, and bettors have been noticing this for the past couple of weeks and were not hesitant to lay the 9-10 point spread on the Texans all week,” Feazel said.
Wins for the books
A Caesars bettor cleaned up on the Rams, who covered as a 6-point favorite in a 41-34 win over the Lions, hitting on a $110,000 bet, but overall, Detroit was one of the most-bet teams of the week and helped the sportsbooks.
The Colts, who were only getting 34% of the handle at BetMGM, keeping it close was a big win for the books. Getting just 6% of the moneyline wagers, the Saints pulling off an outright upset over the Panthers killed off parlays and gave operators a much-needed win in the late afternoon slate.
“The anticipated Philip Rivers return certainly did not disappoint,” Feazel said. “While he did not look like an Olympian on the field, he certainly competed in a game with the spread at -13.5 for the Seahawks all week. We continue to be Saints fans week in and week out, and that was no different this afternoon as bettors were backing the Carolina Panthers at the small spread of –2.5.”
The Cowboys failing to win or cover as a 5.5-point favorite in a 34-26 loss to the Vikings on Sunday night might’ve pushed the overall day toward the books. Dallas was getting 73% of both the spread tickets and money, as well as 89% of the moneyline handle, at BetMGM. It did help the public that the game easily went over 48 points.
Elimination time
The Chiefs ended Sunday in utter disappointment as they were eliminated from the playoffs in a 16-13 loss to the Chargers, and quarterback Patrick Mahomes suffered a season-ending knee injury.
For the sportsbooks, the result of such a critical game in the big scheme of the NFL season turned out to be mixed. The Chargers were only getting 43% of the handle, but the 6-point underdog was the second most-bet team by tickets at BetMGM and most-bet at theScore Bet.
At +240, Los Angeles was getting 82% of the wagers and 70% of the handle on the moneyline at BetMGM.
The Bengals were also eliminated from the postseason after the Ravens (-3) destroyed Cincinnati 24-0. Baltimore was getting 62% of the handle but just 44% of the wagers at BetMGM.
MNF insights
The Steelers are a 3-point favorite when they host the Dolphins on Monday Night Football in a split game at BetMGM.
Miami is getting 64% of the money, but 65% of the bets have come in on Pittsburgh. It's all Steelers at DraftKings, which has seen 83% of the money and 66% of the tickets back the home favorite. More than 90% of the total’s money at BetMGM has come in on under 42.5, while DraftKings has seen a split with 51% of the bets on the under and 64% of the handle on the over.
Miami running back De’Von Achane, a popular bet the last few weeks, has the most-wagered player prop with over 82.5 rushing yards. He’s also the most-bet anytime touchdown scorer with odds of -125 and first touchdown scorer at +400.
