The NFL is taking a cautious approach to prediction markets following its previous strong objections to the platforms, which are seeing trading volumes increase ahead of Super Bowl LX.
The league has recognized the sector’s growth and its potential to engage fans but remains concerned about unresolved integrity and oversight issues.
Key Takeaways
- The NFL is monitoring prediction markets but is not prepared to engage without clearer regulatory standards.
- League leadership continues to cite integrity risks and missing safeguards compared to regulated sports betting.
- The NFL previously strongly opposed the platforms, with its executive vice president submitting written testimony to the House Committee on Agriculture in December.
NFL executive vice president Jeff Miller told Front Office Sports that the league views prediction markets as innovative but uncertain, noting that regulation remains unsettled. He added the NFL is evaluating the space cautiously while maintaining its long-standing principles on game integrity and consumer protection.
Miller's comments reflect a softer tone than the league used late last year. Miller submitted written testimony to the House Committee on Agriculture in December, expressing concern about futures-style contracts tied to sporting events. He said the league was troubled by nationwide offerings, including in states where sports betting remains illegal, as well as the absence of safeguards common in regulated wagering.
Those safeguards include integrity monitoring, information-sharing, restrictions on markets that are easily manipulated, official league data requirements, identity verification, and problem gambling resources.
Commissioner Roger Goodell echoed those concerns in December, saying the league was not prepared to enter the prediction market space due to a lack of regulatory framework. The NFL also prohibited prediction market advertising during the Super Bowl.
Miller said the league's posture mirrors its approach following a 2018 Supreme Court decision that allowed states to legalize sports betting, when the NFL waited to understand the market before forming partnerships.
The league later entered agreements with sportsbooks, including DraftKings and FanDuel, under frameworks it considered adequate. Miller said such future engagement with prediction market platforms would require the same.
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Prediction market operator expands compliance efforts
As the NFL remains cautious, prediction market operators are working to enhance their compliance efforts. Kalshi recently announced it expanded its surveillance and enforcement measures as trading volume tied to Super Bowl outcomes surpassed $160 million. The platform allows users to trade event contracts across sports, politics, and culture.
Kalshi said it operates under federal oversight, banning insider trading and market manipulation. At the same time, it is running know-your-customer and anti-money-laundering checks on users and reporting trades daily to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The company formed an independent surveillance advisory committee, appointed a head of enforcement, and entered partnerships with compliance and analytics firms to monitor suspicious activity.
Kalshi added it conducted more than 200 investigations over the past year, froze accounts, and referred several cases to regulators and law enforcement.
