While Fernando Mendoza appears to be a lock to be the first player taken in the 2026 NFL Draft, bettors are banking on a few surprises and better odds on other picks to yield profits this week.
Key Takeaways
- Mendoza is -10,000 to go No. 1, but Ty Simspon is that market’s biggest liability.
- Notre Dame’s dynamic running back is getting love in multiple markets.
- Bettors are split on how many quarterbacks go in the first round.
The Indiana quarterback is a whopping -10,000 to be selected No. 1 by the Las Vegas Raiders on Thursday night, and Mendoza has taken over 50% of both the handle and wagers at BetMGM.
That keeps him from being the book’s biggest liability, and BetMGM is hoping that the Raiders don’t suddenly shift their plans to Alabama QB Ty Simpson (+25,000), who would be the operator’s most costly first pick with 6.6% of the handle.
After the No. 1 pick, though, the draft heads into what a BetMGM spokesperson called “a volatile and unpredictable stretch” with picks two through 10.
Ohio State edge rusher Arvell Reese was -400 early Tuesday to go No. 2, a pick that belongs to the New York Jets. However, Texas Tech defensive end David Bailey has taken a higher ticket percentage than Reese and has moved to a -150 favorite to go second by Wednesday morning.
Ohio State DE Arvell Reese was a -400 favorite to go No. 2 overall in the 2026 NFL Draft at @BetMGM earlier this week.
— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) April 21, 2026
➡️Texas Tech DE David Bailey (-150) has again moved back the favorite today to go No. 2
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Lots of Love
Dynamic Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love is another player sportsbooks are keeping a close eye on. He could go anywhere in the top five, especially if a team trades up to snag the playmaker.
Love is the biggest liability in both the second pick and third pick betting markets at BetMGM, and he’s leading theScore Bet’s fourth overall pick market with 21.7% of the bets and 43.6% of the handle.
At theScore Bet, Love is first in tickets and second in handle behind Bailey to be a top-five pick.
There is growing chatter in league circles that Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love is in play with Arizona at No. 3 overall. Ideally, the Cardinals would like to find a team willing to trade up so they can acquire more picks, and there have already been “exploratory” calls,…
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 20, 2026
Popular picks
Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles leads the top-five selection market with 26.4% of the handle, while Arizona State receiver Jordyn Tyson has taken the most tickets at 14.7%.
Tyson is also one of the most backed players across multiple markets, including leading BetMGM’s top-10 market with 25.2% of the handle at -400. He’s the biggest liability in five exact pick slots, including the eighth, where he’s the favorite at +250.
Ohio State receiver Carnell Tate is the plus-odds favorite to go No. 6 and No. 7 at BetMGM, and while Cleveland, a sensible destination, is at six, there’s a higher handle (25.2%) on Tate going seventh overall, a pick that belongs to the Washington Commanders. College teammate and coveted safety Caleb Downs is getting the handle and tickets in theScore Bet’s draft position market at 9.5.
Low QB market
This is not a QB-heavy draft, and Simpson might be the only other signal-caller to hear his name called during Thursday’s first round. The under 1.5 quarterbacks selected prop at BetMGM is getting 57% of the tickets, but nearly 80% of the money has come in on the over.
Also, Simpson to the Pittsburgh Steelers at +1,600 has seen the most action in the team to draft him market, ahead of the Miami Dolphins and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Dante Moore is actually listed second in handle for theScore Bet’s top overall pick market, but the Oregon QB opted to remain in college and not enter this year’s draft.
First-round favorite
Draft experts, and mock drafts, are judged on how many first-round selections they get right. One player who’s become a consensus with bettors is San Diego State cornerback Chris Johnson.
With odds that have surged to -185 to go on Thursday, the Group of 5 defender is the most-bet player by handle and tickets at BetMGM and theScore Bet to go in the first round. He’s getting 15% of the money in BetMGM’s market, which is filled with longer shots like Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez at +500.
