Sports betting is more than just simple trends. Anyone who bet on NFL contract incentives this weekend learned that the hard way.
NFL player props based on contract incentives performed horribly, with a list of incentives posted by Underdog going just 8-25 (24.2%).
Key Takeaways
- The majority of contract incentives shared online were not obtained by players.
- Road underdogs were the most profitable teams against the spread.
March Madness bettors are familiar with the strategy of taking all underdogs and waiting for a profit. Last spring’s tournament proved that there was more to it than just that, as favorites dominated, causing massive losses for bettors who blindly bet underdogs.
The same phenomenon has been attributed to contract incentives, yet a similarly disappointing result occurred.
Week 18 Incentives
— Underdog NFL (@UnderdogNFL) January 2, 2026
QBs:
Aaron Rodgers 1 win = $500k
Sam Darnold 150 passing yards = $500k
Sam Darnold 3 TD passes = $500k
RBs:
Saquon Barkley 87 all purpose yards = $250k
Rico Dowdle 7 scrimmage yards = $1M
Rico Dowdle 1 TD = $250k
Nick Chubb 94 rush yards = $250k
Tony Pollard…
Using Underdog’s list, only eight incentive-based player prop bets cashed in Week 18. Those were:
- Aaron Rodgers win.
- Sam Darnold 150 passing yards.
- Rico Dowdle seven scrimmage yards.
- Kareem Hunt 31 scrimmage yards.
- Keenan Allen six catches.
- Keenan Allen nine receiving yards.
- Stefon Diggs 30 receiving yards.
- Hunter Henry five receptions.
While it’s impossible to know the exact losses that would've occurred betting these odds, they would’ve reached $177.28 for a $10 bettor if every line was set at -110 odds. For clarity, that wasn’t the case, since the Pittsburgh Steelers were underdogs against the Baltimore Ravens, and Sam Darnold’s projected passing line was more than 200 yards.
An additional list of mostly defensive-based incentives can be found below.
NFL Contract Incentives ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/OCGeu1985I
— Toad Sports (@ToadSports) December 30, 2025
Of the 29 players that required at least one sack, only Seattle's Uchenna Nwosu and Washington's Von Miller recorded one.
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NFL playoff betting notes
With the NFL playoffs beginning on Saturday, there are several notable headlines entering the matchups.
The Los Angeles Rams are the largest road favorite in NFL playoff history, having been installed at -10.5 (-108) at FanDuel against the Carolina Panthers.
The Green Bay Packers are also 1.5-point road favorites against their NFC North rivals, the No. 2-seed Chicago Bears, despite being the No. 7 seed themselves. Similarly, the No. 6-seed Buffalo Bills are -1.5 against the No. 3-seed Jacksonville Jaguars.
