Sportsbooks are hoping last week’s high dose of NFL outright-winning favorites turns into a slate of upsets this week. Bettors, meanwhile, are expectedly loading up on popular teams in high-profile matchups in Week 2.
Key Takeaways
- The Eagles are dominating wagers in the Super Bowl rematch with the Chiefs.
- Bills-Jets offers a unique look into the moneyline market.
- Bettors are heavily backing the Cowboys, Broncos, and Cardinals.
“Week 2 features a Super Bowl rematch, and bettors are showing their support for the defending champs,” BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said. “The Eagles winning would be a great outcome for customers, along with the Cowboys, Bills, and Lions, who are all favored by nearly a touchdown.”
Philadelphia enters this rematch at Kansas City as a slight 1-point favorite in the late-afternoon showdown after being a small underdog earlier in the week. The Eagles are getting 77% of the bets and 83% of the handle at BetMGM.
Driving action
ESPN BET reported that Philly, fresh off a win and non-cover against Dallas last Thursday, is less hammered with 74% of the tickets and 70% of the money.
“The Super Bowl rematch is our most-bet game of the weekend,” said Adrian Horton, ESPN BET’s senior director of North American trading. “We briefly flipped to Chiefs -1.5 on Tuesday, but it’s been steady action on the Eagles to move the line back to where we opened with Philly as a slight favorite. Right now, a little more than two-thirds of bets and handle are on Philly to cover -1.5 in Kansas City, and the over 46.5 is one of our most bet totals as well.”
While the Eagles are also the most-bet team at BetMGM, Patrick Mahomes and Co. are getting just 34% of the tickets and 21% of the moneyline handle with odds of -105 despite the Arrowhead Stadium advantage.
Needing upsets
In terms of tickets, there isn’t a single underdog among the top five most-bet teams this week at BetMGM, and three favorites are getting at least 70% of the moneyline handle.
“An upset to break up the big favorites' moneyline parlays would be a positive for BetMGM,” Cipollini said.
One of the most intriguing games for bettors is Bills-Jets. Buffalo is a -6.5 favorite, the most-bet team, and is getting over 95% of the moneyline handle at ESPN BET and DraftKings.
Here’s where it gets really interesting: The Bills have seen 69% of the tickets at DraftKings, but 70% of the money wagered has come in on the Jets, who are also the most-bet team by handle at BetMGM.
Over 46.5 points is the most-bet total at the online sportsbook as well.
One-sided affairs
While the Bills are getting over 70% of both the bets and handle at ESPN BET, they aren’t alone in one-way action. The Steelers, 3.5-point favorites versus Seattle, have seen a whopping 81% of the money.
The Broncos are also getting 80% of the handle as 1.5-point favorites over the Colts. The 49ers (-3.5 at New Orleans) and the Falcons (+3.5 at Minnesota on Sunday night) are two other high-handle teams at ESPN BET this week.
Bettors are all over a Dallas bounce-back at ESPN BET, with 91% of the money and 85% of the tickets coming in on the 3-point favorite over the Giants. DraftKings bettors have honed in on the Cardinals, 6.5-point favorites that are getting 82% of the money and nearly 70% of the bets against the Panthers.
Tight calls
Possibly no team looked worse in Week 1 than the Dolphins, and with Sunday’s opponents, the Patriots, coming off an opening loss as well, bettors wasted no time in picking a moneyline side.
The Pats are the most-bet underdogs of the week at BetMGM, with odds of +110 to win outright. The Dolphins are getting just 30% of the moneyline handle at DraftKings, but New England is only getting a slight 51% edge in handle as a 1.5-point underdog.
The Ravens are hefty 11.5-point favorites over the Browns on Sunday, but DraftKings bettors are showing an interesting split, with 52% of the handle on Cleveland and 59% of the bets backing Baltimore. Also, the Browns are the second most-bet underdog at BetMGM with enticing +600 odds.
Bears-Lions is showing a similar split at BetMGM in a game between two 0-2 teams, with Chicago getting the higher bulk of the money. The Rams (-5.5) are attracting 73% of the bets at ESPN BET, but they’re only getting 48% of the handle against the Titans.
Total trend
Unders ruled in Week 1 and kept that trend going on Thursday night when Commanders-Packers stayed below the total to kick off Week 2. Three of the top five most-bet totals by tickets for this week are unders at BetMGM: Rams-Titans (41.5), Broncos-Colts (43.5), and Bucs-Texans (42.5).
After Bills-Jets, the total with the highest over percentage at DraftKings belongs to Cardinals-Panthers, with 87% of the money, but 58% of the bets are on the under. The highest under percentage so far is on Monday’s first of two games between the Buccaneers and Texans.
Propping up
Bettors liked what they saw from the Patriots' Kayshon Boutte last week after he went over 100 yards receiving, so they’re backing his over 37.5 yards (-155) as the most-bet player prop at BetMGM this week.
Cleveland wide receiver Cedric Tillman’s over 41.5 receiving yards (-120) is the second-most popular prop, followed by his quarterback Joe Flacco’s over 238.5 passing yards.
Sticking with the theme of going against the Bengals' defense, the most-bet player to score an anytime touchdown this week is Browns wideout Isaiah Bond at +1,800. Then follow Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence and Baltimore’s Derrick Henry, the latter of whom is also the most-bet player at ESPN BET, followed by Eagles running back Saquon Barkley.
