So much for unpredictability on the first Sunday of the NFL regular season.
Key Takeaways
- Favorites dominated in outright wins, while unders helped the sportsbooks ease the losses on parlays and teasers
- Circa Sports Survivor contestants did well, thanks to the Broncos, Cardinals, and Bengals
- The Vikings are slightly favored over the Bears in an evenly split Monday Night Football matchup
Favorites went an impressive 11-2 on the moneyline to dominate the betting landscape and give bettors the edge in Week 1 against the sportsbooks. It was a start reminiscent of last year, when favorites won at a clip over 70%, which led to unprecedented customer-friendly stretches that zapped sports betting operator profits.
“The 2025 season has picked up right where 2024 left off, with favorites continuing their strong run,” Craig Mucklow, Vice President of Trading at Caesars Sportsbook, said.
On Sunday, the Las Vegas Raiders and Buffalo Bills were the only two underdogs to win outright, and both were in the top five of the most-bet plus-odds moneyline teams.
“Every favorite won on Sunday (afternoon) except for the Patriots, reinforcing the trend that has consistently benefited bettors,” Mucklow said. “One standout exception was the Raiders, who entered Week 1 as a popular underdog throughout the offseason. They were the only dog to win outright, and their victory aligned with customer sentiment.”
The Los Angeles Chargers made it three with a Friday night victory over the Kansas City Chiefs, but bettors feasted on parlays and teasers with so many favorites winning outright. The Lions, Giants, and Browns were BetMGM’s most-bet underdogs that failed to pull off an upset.
The Bucs' moneyline win was good for Caesars bettors.
“Overall, Week 1 resulted in a modest win for customers, primarily driven by outcomes in the moneyline and total markets,” Mucklow said.
A bettor in Nevada won $92,528.40 on a $1.5K 9-leg NFL ML parlay 🤑
— Caesars Sportsbook (@CaesarsSports) September 8, 2025
Bills ML (-120)
Jaguars ML (-155)
Bengals ML (-260)
Eagles ML (-320)
Packers ML (-130)
Rams ML (-145)
Commanders ML (-320)
Steelers ML (-155)
49ers ML (-125) pic.twitter.com/3gmTyqzZwK
Good and bad
Favorites also went 8-5 against the spread, including 3-1 during Sunday’s late afternoon slate.
However, BetMGM was on the winning side in four of the top five most-bet teams by tickets and handle. The one that hurt was Arizona, a 6.5-point favorite who won 20-13 over the New Orleans Saints. The Cardinals had the second-highest handle percentage at ESPN BET as well.
“Early results were good for the sportsbook with the Cowboys/Chargers covering as underdogs in primetime games to start the season,” BetMGM data analyst John Ewing told Covers on Monday. "The Browns, Jets, Raiders, and Titans covering on Sunday were also positive for the book.”
The sportsbooks were happy to see the Cleveland Browns lose by just a point as a 5.5-point underdog to the Cincinnati Bengals. The Denver Broncos came up a point shy of covering against Tennessee in a 20-12 win. At 84%, the Broncos had the largest handle percentage differential among all teams at ESPN BET.
At BetMGM, the Steelers, Giants, Broncos, and Lions were the most-bet spread teams that failed to cover.
The 49ers beating the Seahawks by four and the Rams winning by five were good for bettors at Caesars. Victories by Commanders and Colts worked out for the operator.
“The spread market was neutral, with results breaking even,” Mucklow said.
Going under
The sportsbooks got some money back on point totals. Bettors flock to overs, but the under went 11-2 on Sunday, with the over missing by double digits in seven games.
Steelers-Jets had the lowest total on the board at 38, but it was the highest-scoring game at 32-30 before Sunday night’s 41-40 Bills-Ravens thriller. Counting Thursday and Friday, unders went 12-3, with Monday’s Vikings-Bears game pending.
Bettors went 2-3 against BetMGM’s most-wagered totals. Overs in the Raiders-Patriots and Panthers-Jaguars games had at least 75% of the money at ESPN BET, but both went under.
Survivors thrive
It was a good week for survivor pools. Circa Sports Survivor, the most publicly lucrative contest in the country, all of the top five teams picked won: Broncos, Cardinals, Eagles, Jaguars, and Bengals.
The Patriots, with 269 selections, were the most costly losers. With a record number of entries (18,718) battling it out in the one-loss-and-done competition worth over $18.7 million, 518 have been eliminated heading into Monday Night Football. Just 74 selections are sweating out Vikings-Bears, and 24 participants failed to turn in a Week 1 pick.
#CircaSurvivor 2025 🏈🏆Week 1 Selections pic.twitter.com/yA2N5RviRv
— Circa Sports (@CircaSports) September 7, 2025
MNF insights
The Vikings enter their season opener as a slight 1.5-point favorite at Chicago. ESPN BET reported 50.7% of the bets and 65.3% of the handle have come in on the Bears in a game that opened as a pick’em.
The moneyline tickets and money are nearly dead even at ESPN BET. BetMGM has seen 60% of the money favoring the favorite, but a closer 52% of the bets are on the Vikings.
As for the total of 43.5, ESPN BET said 65% of the money and 62% of the tickets are on the over.
