Bettors that are getting their money down in the NBA title futures market appear to be focused on one particular side of the league.
Key Takeaways
- The Thunder and Nuggets are two of the most-bet teams to win it all.
- Bettors love Luka Doncic and the Lakers this season, with or without LeBron James.
- The Warriors are a big liability at one sportsbook.
That shouldn’t surprise you when the 2025-2026 regular season kicks off on Tuesday night. Six of the last nine NBA titles have been won by a Western Conference team, and the majority of the talent resides on that side of the Mississippi River.
“As has been the case in recent years, the Western Conference is once again stacked with talented rosters, which has resulted in our title favorites consisting mostly of teams from the West,” said David Lieberman, Caesars Sportsbook’s lead pro basketball trader.
That’s not necessarily a bad thing for sports betting operators, though. The Oklahoma City Thunder, who won the Western Conference and the NBA title last year, are one of the most-bet teams at FanDuel, ESPN BET, DraftKings, and BetMGM.
A repeat champion from the West would actually help sportsbooks.
“The star-studded Lakers, Warriors, Nuggets, and Mavericks are all popular picks to win the NBA Championship this year,” said Halvor Egeland, BetMGM’s trading strategy manager. “While the Thunder are receiving support from bettors to go back-to-back, the team's low odds make them a good outcome for the sportsbook.”
Big two at the top
As the +200 NBA Finals odds favorite, Oklahoma City is the top team by handle at FanDuel, and the Thunder are getting 9.4% of the bets and 12% of the money at BetMGM, good for second and third. At ESPN BET, nearly 25% of all wagers in the Finals winner market have come in on OKC, but the reigning champs have seen just 7.2% of the money.
The leader in handle at the online sportsbook is the Denver Nuggets, who have received a whopping 48% of the money and 21% of the tickets. The Nuggets, who won the title in 2022-23, are +650 to win it again at FanDuel, where they’re the most-bet team by tickets and second in handle.
Bettors believe this is a two-team race this season. No other NBA squad is getting more than 8.3% of the tickets or 7.2% of the handle.
However, the biggest liability at BetMGM is the Golden State Warriors, who are getting 9% of the handle with odds of +2,500 to win it all.
Leaning on Luka
Lakers star LeBron James starts the season tonight on the bench, but that isn’t keeping Los Angeles from being among the most-bet teams. BetMGM reports 15.9% of the money is on the Luka Doncic-led Western Conference contender. Los Angeles is also third in bets and fourth in handle at ESPN BET but seventh in money at DraftKings.
No matter how long James is out with a sciatica issue, bettors believe in Doncic. Not only are the Lakers the second biggest liability in the NBA winner market at BetMGM with odds of +1,600, but Doncic is the biggest liability to win MVP at +325, getting a leading 25.1% of the tickets and 40.5% of the handle.
Doncic has seen 33.3% of the handle at ESPN BET, ahead of Denver’s Nikola Jokic (18.1%), OKC’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (10.9%), and San Antonio’s Victor Wembanyama (10.8%).
Over or under?
The popular total wins market is being led by an Eastern Conference team at BetMGM. The Boston Celtics are the most-bet over team by tickets at 41.5 wins this season. The Dallas Mavericks are second at 41.5, and the Phoenix Suns are third at 30.5.
The Warriors lead in money at 46.5, followed by the Toronto Raptors (39.5) and the Mavericks (41.5). The most-bet under team by tickets is the Houston Rockets (52.5), while the Indiana Pacers lead in money at 37.5 wins.
Other notable futures
The leader to win the Western Conference at multiple sportsbooks is the Nuggets, who are getting 33% of the handle at DraftKings, but the Suns are BetMGM’s biggest liability in that market. The Knicks are at 19% of the money to win the East, ahead of the favorite, Cleveland.
Dallas Maverick Cooper Flagg is a -170 favorite to win Rookie of the Year at DraftKings, where he’s getting 43% of the bets and 23% of the handle. The former Duke star has taken nearly 40% of the handle at ESPN BET, but the biggest rookie market liability at BetMGM is Ace Bailey (+1,000).
Cooper Flagg signs a flag 🏳️🤣
— Covers (@Covers) July 12, 2025
How much will that be worth if Flagg wins NBA Rookie of the Year?
He is currently -190 to win the award 🏆pic.twitter.com/0CHuwPCven
Boston’s Joe Mazzulla leads BetMGM’s Coach of the Year market with 7.7% of the tickets, but Miami’s Erik Spoelstra is getting 16% of the handle. Phoenix coach Jordan Ott is the biggest liability with 9.3% of the handle on odds of +10,000.
Opening-night insights
There are just two games to kick off the NBA season on Tuesday. The Thunder begin the title defense as a 6.5-point favorite over the visiting Rockets. DraftKings has 61% of the Rockets vs. Thunder prediction bets and 51% of the money coming in on Houston, while FanDuel reported that 81% of the moneyline handle is on the Thunder.
In the nightcap, Golden State is -2.5 on the road against the LeBron-less Lakers, but FanDuel has seen 53% of the moneyline handle in Warriors vs. Lakers predictions back the home team. DraftKings reported that 67% of the money and 65% of the tickets are on the Warriors covering the spread.
