As college football inches closer to its postseason, two candidates have taken a slight lead in Heisman Trophy odds.
Key Takeaways
- Julian Sayin is down to third after being a cofavorite last week.
- The most bets are on Jeremiah Smith Jr., but the most money is on Ty Simpson.
- Jeremiyah Love, the third-largest liability, shortened to +1,800 from +3,000.
The race to win the Heisman is as open as it has been in recent history. There isn’t even a consensus first overall pick in the next NFL draft, and discerning the best player in college football has proved to be quite the task.
Last week, Simpson (3.1% of tickets, 16.6% of the handle) and Mendoza (4.4% of tickets, 3.9% of the handle) were also tied with Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin (4% of tickets, 2.8% of the handle) at +300. All three lengthened in odds, though Sayin dropped to +400 while Simpson and Mendoza retained their titles as co-favorites at +325.
While the three lead the way, their odds lengthening from last week means other candidates are still alive.
One of those players is Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed, who shortened from +1,000 to +550 since last week. Reed only has 1% of wagers and of the pot behind him.
Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia, who opened at +12,500, shrunk from +1,300 to +800. He is responsible for 3% of bets and 3.6% of the money placed in Heisman futures betting markets at BetMGM.
Dark horses in an ever-changing race
Surprisingly, the player with the most bets supporting him has not been mentioned.
Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith Jr. is backed by 7.7% of bets and 5.5% of the pot. He ballooned to +3,000 after being at +1,400 a week ago.
Arch Manning, the preseason favorite at +900, has also lengthened to +25,000 despite having 7.6% of tickets (second) and 7.4% of the handle (third).
A few players who are still in contention for college football’s highest honor are Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love (+1,800), Ole Miss signal-caller Trinidad Chambliss (+2,000), and Oregon QB Dante Moore (+4,000).
Love was +5,000 at opening and +3,000 last week but is responsible for 5.0% of bets and 3.1% of the handle. He’s the third-largest liability at BetMGM, behind Simpson and Moore.
Speaking of Moore, he has 4.4% of tickets and 13.3% of the handle, the second-highest amount of any player.
Chambliss, a Division-II Ferris State transfer, has 0.8% of bets and 0.5% of the money. He wasn’t even given Heisman odds until he appeared at +1,500 in Week 6.
Betting trends
Sportsbooks are notoriously awful at predicting the Heisman winner during the offseason. However, this year’s race is as complicated as any in recent memory.
Most teams will finish their seasons around the end of November, meaning Heisman odds contenders have roughly four games remaining to boost their cases.
Quarterbacks had won seven of eight Heisman trophies until WR/DB Travis Hunter claimed the award in 2024. Wideout DeVonta Smith won it in 2020, and rusher Derrick Henry received the honor in 2015. Quarterbacks also won the award eight out of nine years before that.
