Prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi are divided on the outcome of an event contract offering odds on whether Cardi B performed during the Super Bowl.
Both operators offered contracts to customers on the matter, and many buyers remain unhappy with how each handled its respective market.
Key Takeaways
- While users argue she did perform, Kalshi said it was impossible to tell.
- Polymarket originally resolved the market ‘Yes’ before disputing it, while Kalshi invoked a rule that would let it decide the outcome.
Cardi B appeared during Bad Bunny’s halftime set during Sunday’s matchup between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks, and while some bettors view this as a definitive yes that she performed at the Super Bowl, Kalshi and Polymarket have been left in a bind to figure out what actually counts as a performance.
Polymarket had received more than $4.4 million in wagers on whether the popstar would perform during the halftime show, and deemed to resolve the market as a "Yes" after she was seen dancing and lip-syncing with other celebrities during the performance. However, the operator has since disputed this decision, and the outcome of the market will be announced in a final review later this week.
Cardi B dances on stage during Bad Bunny’s #SuperBowl Halftime performance in La Casitapic.twitter.com/NdBgjTMLmv
— Complex Music (@ComplexMusic) February 9, 2026
For Kalshi, what counts as a performance was more ambiguous. The platform defines a performance in three rules: the performer must appear on stage, the performance must include dancing or singing, and it is either a scheduled performance or a guest appearance at another artist’s performance.
If these conditions are met, the market would then resolve to "Yes."
While those rules may seem to count Cardi B at the Super Bowl as a performer, Kalshi has another rule about what doesn’t count as a performance, which includes “dancing or appearing on stage without singing/ playing instruments.”
A spokesperson for Kalshi told Business Insider, that while it was clear she was mouthing words and dancing, it was unclear whether she was actually singing, adding that it was "impossible to tell either way."
Kalshi has since invoked a rule that allows it to determine the outcome of a market, paying out users who said Cardi B would perform at 26 cents per share and 74 cents per share for those who said no. Kalshi users have since expressed their unhappiness with the decision online and in the market.
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Insider trading controversy
Kalshi and other prediction apps have also had to fend off complaints of insider trading on their Super Bowl Halftime Show markets.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour attempted to address those concerns Tuesday on CNBC. The hosts of the program questioned if these markets allow for fair-market trading.
"If (Bad Bunny) can tell people what the lineup is and if he wants to divulge that beforehand, that's fair game, and that's part of what the risk in the market is," Mansour said.
