Kalshi has processed nearly $4 million in predictions on the Thursday Night Football matchup and 2025 NFL season opener between the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys.
The prediction platform allows its customers to buy and sell sports contracts that relate to outcomes during the NFL season.
Key Takeaways
- Kalshi reported a total of $21 million in contracts for Week 1 as of Thursday morning.
- Prediction platforms allow customers to set the prices of contracts based on their demand.
- FanDuel and Underdog recently announced partnerships with prediction outlets.
While Kalshi and other prediction platforms maintain they are not betting outlets, they still handle large sums of money.
As of Thursday at 9 a.m. ET, Kalshi’s website showed the platform had accepted over $21 million in predictions across all 16 Week 1 matchups, with a good chunk of that represented by the Eagles-Cowboys TNF showdown.
The handle will likely grow significantly larger as the weekend approaches and the time left until kick-off decreases, as seen by the large handle for the Thursday Night divisional bout.
In that vein, the game that posted the second-highest handle – $1.2 million – was the Friday night battle between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers.
The matchup that received the least interest from Kalshi users was between the Carolina Panthers and Jacksonville Jaguars, teams that had a combined record of 9-25 last season, with just $66,962.
Futures predictions pour in
Kalshi’s prediction markets aren’t limited to standalone games. They also have contracts available for future outcomes, such as which team will win the AFC, NFC, and Super Bowl.
The platform has handled $6.9 million in transactions related to the Super Bowl. The Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, and Eagles have frequently swapped places among the most popular picks to win the next championship.
The Ravens and Bills currently have a 13 percent chance to the Eagles’ 12. The Chiefs are close behind at 11 percent probability, before a drop to seven percent for the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers.
Aside from the teams mentioned above, the most popular pick to make the playoffs – a market that has drawn $544,186 in transactions – is the San Francisco 49ers. While the top Super Bowl contenders all have at least a 75 percent chance of qualifying for the postseason, the Niners have an estimated 65 percent chance.
The Packers (64 percent) have also flown up the chart following the trade acquisition of Micah Parsons, while the Lions and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are next and tied for at 61 percent.
The controversy of prediction platforms
Trading platforms operate differently than sportsbooks. They allow customers to buy and sell contracts with one another, meaning the prices of those contracts are directly influenced by consumer demand as opposed to “the house.”
Despite that, several legal sportsbooks have grown wary of these platforms. Numerous state regulators have also argued with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) that sports event contracts allow prediction platforms to operate as unlicensed sports betting platforms.
Rather than getting lost in the rising popularity of prediction platforms, FanDuel in August announced a partnership with CFTC-licensed CME to offer financial prediction markets.
Underdog also announced this week that it is the first platform to offer sports betting, fantasy sports contests, and prediction markets following its partnership with Crypto.com.
