With Jake Paul’s latest headline bout set to feature on the canvas this Saturday against Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., gamblers are picking a major upset despite a lopsided betting line.
Key takeaways
- Boxers Jake Paul and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. square off this coming Saturday in Anaheim, California at the Honda Center.
- Paul is a heavy favorite to move to 12-1 all-time as he continues to dominate opponents.
- Chavez Jr. appears to be Paul’s toughest competitor yet, however, and bettors are making a bold prediction that an upset could be in store.
According to BetMGM, Paul is currently -600 to win outright, with +150 odds to prevail by unanimous decision.
Despite odds heavily favoring the longtime social media star, who boasts an 11-1 record all-time including 7 KO wins, bettors placed a remarkable 95.6% of the money on Chavez Jr.
“Following up the most bet fight in BetMGM history, Jake Paul looks to take out another former WBC champion in Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.,” said Alex Rella, senior trader at BetMGM. “However, Chavez was a champion over a dozen years ago and he lost to Anderson Silva in 2021, who then lost to Jake Paul in 2022. Fight math may not be perfect, but it can help be indicative of the times and why Jake Paul is a -600 favorite.”
Whether the crowd sees a shrewd opportunity to catch BetMGM undervaluing the former champ, who fought just once since 2021, or merely hopes to see the Problem Child meet his match, is perhaps a different discussion entirely.
Meanwhile, there’s no doubt Chavez Jr. will be a stiff test for Paul, who has yet to face a fighter of Chavez Jr.'s pedigree — except of course for his often-scrutinized tilt with boxing legend Mike Tyson.
“Chavez Jr. is definitely the best boxer Paul has faced,’’ said Shane Volk, risk manager at Circa Sports in Las Vegas.
Paul, nevertheless, appears unphased as always.
“I want to continue to elevate my opponents, and this is a former world champion who has an amazing resume following in his dad’s footsteps,” Paul said at a promotional press conference in May. “This guy is a great fighter and I want to test myself against the best in the world.”
Other books expect similar result
Alongside BetMGM, other sportsbooks view this upcoming fight similarly, regarding the gap between Paul and Chavez Jr., whether that’s due to talent level or their enormous 11-year age difference.
BetRivers and FanDuel have some of the widest margins, where Paul is a -715 and -700 favorite respectively, at both books. Others, such as DraftKings, give Chavez Jr. marginally more respect, however, Paul is listed as a heavy favorite at -575.
Paul’s record was spotless over his last five fights, with wins over Mike Tyson, and Nate Diaz during that stretch, his only career loss coming via split decision back in 2023 to Tommy Fury.
Chavez Jr., meanwhile, boasts a lifetime 54-6-1 record with 34 KOs but is a meager 3-2 over his previous five fights. Four of those occurred between 2020-2021.
