H2 Gambling Capital projects a 71% increase in wagering between the 2022 FIFA World Cup and the 2026 North American event.
Key Takeaways
- H2 Gambling Capital projects that the three North American host countries will generate $5.7 billion in World Cup wagers.
- The expanded format isn’t causing a major increase in handle projections.
- H2 expects operator gross revenue to reach $7.5 billion.
The research and market data firm said in a report last week that it estimates a $60-billion soccer handle globally through legal sports betting channels during the World Cup, which kicks off Thursday and wraps up on July 19.
H2 analysts believe nearly 10% of that worldwide handle will come from the three North American host countries, combining for $5.7 billion. The U.S. is expected to lead the trio with $2.9 billion in wagers, more than double the $1.3 billion soccer handle during June and July 2025.
In other World Cup betting news, this projection is in line with Eilers & Krejcik Gaming’s $2.82 billion handle estimate, which could reach $4 billion if the U.S. men’s national team has a highly successful World Cup.
H2 says Mexico will have the highest soccer share of betting spend, but handle estimates are around $2.5 billion. Canada’s legal sportsbooks are expected to contribute $300 million in World Cup wagering. H2 didn’t factor Canada’s grey markets into that projection.
However, prediction markets are not included in these projections.
“While we recognize their growing popularity in the United States, particularly across domestic sports, we do not expect these platforms to have a material impact on global football betting handle for the 2026 World Cup,” H2 stated in its report.
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Revenue projection
H2’s data shows that the sport’s gross win globally has increased by a compound annual growth rate of 12% over the last decade, despite soccer’s share of total sports betting declining from 69% in 2018 to 56% in 2026. H2 attributes the decrease to “diversification” of the global market, especially in the U.S., where legal sports betting has expanded to 39 states.
“Our (hold) estimate of 12.5% reflects the continued growth of parlay and bet builder betting since 2022, which carries materially higher margins than straight match wagers,” H2 said. “Applying this rate to our World Cup handle estimate yields an estimated gross win for the tournament of approximately $7.5 billion.”
Cautious estimates
The wagering projection also represents a 185% year-over-year increase from 2018’s tournament. More regulated markets, like jurisdictional growth in the U.S. and Brazil launching in 2025, help spur the percentages.
H2 believes the World Cup’s expansion from 32 teams to 48, creating 40 more matches than in 2022, doesn’t necessarily mean a massive handle is coming, as 60% of the increased play occurs in the less-wagered group stage.
“While the expanded tournament creates additional opportunities for operators to drive engagement, we remain cautious in our handle estimates, reflecting the potential dilution in match quality and interest associated with the increased number of fixtures,” H2 analysts said. “Our handle projections are also sensitive to the performance of the largest markets, both in footballing and betting terms, with deeper runs by major nations expected to drive materially higher wagering activity.”
Not having Italy, which represents a robust wagering market, in the field is also heavily weighed into the projections.
Specific factors
Certain factors could certainly increase the estimated amount wagered, such as if one of the North American teams goes on a deep run out of the group stage and into the round of 16 and further.
“A scenario in which multiple major nations reach the latter stages would be expected to drive materially higher engagement, supported by increased media attention and broader consumer interest,” H2 said. “Conversely, early exits for key markets could act as a drag on total wagering activity.”
Operator revenue is predicated on how favorites fare “to a greater extent than in previous tournaments,” according to H2, because of the rise in popularity from player and match prop betting.
“This reflects the continued growth in single-game parlays (or bet builders), which have become an increasingly important driver of operator revenues,” H2 said.
