Week 4’s Sunday in the NFL proved to be a mixed bag of results for sportsbooks and the public.
Key Takeaways
- New York’s giant upset of the Chargers was a key win for the sportsbooks.
- Bettors at Caesars cleaned up on the Steelers, Patriots, Falcons, and Lions.
- Between two Monday night games, operators could use some upsets.
With favorites going 5-8 against the spread and 6-7 straight up, there were some significant wins and losses on both sides.
“The morning games were a push for the customers, with all but one result going in their favor,” said Joey Feazel, Caesars Sportsbook’s head of football. “For the afternoon games … the Rams were the result of the day for customers with their comeback against the Colts, and surprisingly, the Chiefs were not a great result for bettors as the Ravens were all the rage.”
Feazel said before Sunday night’s kickoff that a Packers cover and an over on the total would push the day in the public’s favor, but only one of those hit as the Cowboys got inside the 6.5-point spread in a 40-40 overtime tie in one of the most-bet games of the week.
Good for the books
At BetMGM, the bettors lost four of Sunday’s five most-bet spread teams by tickets: Chargers, Packers, Ravens, and Vikings. In terms of handle, the Colts’ first loss also went the way of the sportsbook.
The best game for operators came in the early window when the Chargers failed to rally past the underdog Giants, who picked up their first win of the season with a 21-18 victory. New York, at +220, was Sunday’s biggest outright underdog.
“The Giants' upset was the only poor result for the bettors,” Feazel said about the early slate.
The Chargers were the most bet team by moneyline and spread tickets at ESPN BET among all early-window squads, getting 94% of ML bets and 90% of handle. As for tickets, 82.3% of bets and 64.9% of handle backed Los Angeles.
The Chiefs’ easy 37-20 win as a 2.5-point underdog was also big for operators. The Ravens were getting 71% of the bets and 81% of the money at BetMGM. The Bills, the season’s largest favorite so far at -16.5, were the third most-bet team at ESPN BET, and with 84% of the wagers, Buffalo failed to cover the spread against the lowly Saints.
Bettors also did well on the over in the Patriots and Falcons games at Caesars, but they missed on three of the top-five totals at BetMGM.
Big for bettors
Caesars reported that the Steelers, Patriots, Falcons, and Lions were “tremendous results for the bettors.” Pittsburgh held off a late Minnesota rally in Dublin, Ireland, while Detroit dominated Cleveland for an easy cover on a double-digit spread. The Lions were getting 70% of the tickets and 62% of the handle at BetMGM.
ESPN BET said a healthy 72% of the handle backed the Rams, despite the Colts getting a slight majority of tickets, and Los Angeles paid off on a moneyline that took 71% of the handle as well. The Bears’ late comeback win over the Raiders in the late slate was another good result for customers at ESPN BET, as more than 70% of the tickets and handle were on Chicago (closed +1.5).
In one of the most anticipated games of the week, the Eagles covered against the Bucs, who were getting the majority of the bets and money at BetMGM. However, bettors who got in on the live spread after the Eagles took an early lead were happy to see Philadelphia take a late safety while trying to run out the clock at the end of the game.
“For the second week in a row, the Eagles' late game score benefited in-play customers who took the Bucs +6.5,” Feazel said. “It just shows that your ticket has life until all the zeros hit the clock if you have an interest in Eagles games.”
MNF previews
The final night of Week 4 is highlighted by two games. As a 2.5-point favorite in the first contest against the Jets, the Dolphins are getting more than 60% of the money at BetMGM and a slight majority of the handle at ESPN BET, which has taken more tickets on New York.
In the second game against the Bengals, the Broncos (-7.5) have received 60% of the tickets and 59% of the handle at ESPN BET. BetMGM has seen more than 60% of the bets backing Denver, but a more robust 86% of the money has come in on the favorite.
As for player props, BetMGM reported that J.K. Dobbins over 64.5 rushing yards, Garrett Wilson over 5.5 receptions, Evan Engram over 1.5 receptions, Braelon Allen over 16.5 rushing yards, and De’Von Achane under 12.5 rushing attempts have all seen 99% of the tickets.
Jets quarterback Justin Fields (+210) is the most-bet anytime touchdown scorer, while Denver receiver Courtland Sutton (+700) has taken the most bets to be the first touchdown scorer between both Monday night games.
