Sensational sophomore quarterback Drake Maye has overtaken Matthew Stafford in NFL MVP odds entering Week 14.
Key Takeaways
- The New England Patriots star is the odds-on favorite (greater than 50% implied probability) for the first time.
- Stafford's Los Angeles Rams unexpectedly lost to the Carolina Panthers as 10-point favorites last week.
- Dak Prescott still has ground to make up but is closing fast.
| Player | BetMGM | DraftKings | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | -120 | -135 | -125 |
| Matthew Stafford | +115 | +125 | +130 |
| Dak Prescott | +1,500 | +1,500 | +1,600 |
| Jordan Love | +1,500 | +1,900 | +1,600 |
| Josh Allen | +2,500 | +2,500 | +3,000 |
| Caleb Williams | +6,000 | +6,500 | +5,000 |
| Sam Darnold | +6,600 | +6,500 | +10,000 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +10,000 | +9,000 | +15,000 |
| Jonathan Taylor | +10,000 | +10,000 | +10,000 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | +10,000 | +10,000 | +10,000 |
Maye has been locked in a two-horse race atop the odds board with Stafford.
The Rams quarterback, by far the senior of the two, had crept below the -200 mark last week. However, Los Angeles blew a game against the Panthers as a 10-point favorite as Stafford went 18-for-28 for 243 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions.
Maye, who got to see Stafford play Sunday before taking the field against the New York Giants on Monday Night Football, went 24-for-31 for 282 yards and two touchdowns in a 33-15 win.
The New England Patriots’ young star leads the league in passing yards (despite not throwing for 300 yards in a single game), is fourth in touchdowns (23), and has just six interceptions. He’s also second in EPA per play and fourth in QBR.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google accountMaye had been the MVP before, when he was +225 during Week 11, according to PENN Entertainment’s theScore Bet. This is the first time he’s led with odds shorter than +100.
Bettors backing Maye, Patriots
Insights from theScore Bet shared with Covers revealed Maye has received the third-most bets and the fourth-most money to win MVP since the start of the season.
His 7.9% of bets since Week 1 is only behind Jonathan Taylor (13.5% of bets, 7.8% of handle) and Baker Mayfield (11.1%, 6.9%).
His 8.1% share of the handle only trails Stafford (6.6% of bets, 23.6% of handle), Patrick Mahomes (4.5%, 11.9%), and Josh Allen (5.3%, 10%).
Maye’s success has also made a significant impact on Super Bowl futures betting. The Pats were given the ninth-longest preseason Super Bowl odds of +8,000 but moved from +1,100 to +1,000 (fifth best) following their 10th straight win.
The Patriots are the eighth-most popular Super Bowl pick at theScore Bet dating back to the start of the season. Their 5.8% of bets and 6.1% of handle are below the following teams:
- Kansas City Chiefs - 12.4%, 18.6%
- Buffalo Bills - 10.4%, 10.2%
- Los Angeles Rams - 9.5%, 8.9%
- Philadelphia Eagles - 8.7%, 8.7%
- Detroit Lions - 8.3%, 7.9%
- Baltimore Ravens - 5.6%, 7.7%
- Green Bay Packers - 5.9%, 6.4%
- Indianapolis Colts - 6.2%, 4.9%
Dak, Love still in hunt
Maye and Stafford have made it difficult for everyone else, but Dak Prescott seems keen on joining the MVP race.
The Dallas Cowboys signal-caller closed to about +1,500 at top online sportsbooks this week following a 320-yard, two-touchdown, one-interception showing in a win over the Kansas City Chiefs. The Cowboys are riding a three-game winning streak and appear to have one of the NFL's most explosive offenses thanks in part to CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.
Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love is also close behind leading into an enormous matchup with the NFC-leading Chicago Bears on Sunday. There’s a drop in odds between those four and the rest of the pack.
