Jake Paul might be a polarizing figure in the sports and entertainment world, but when it comes to Friday’s bout against Anthony Joshua, sportsbooks want to see the YouTuber-turned-boxer get knocked out early.
Key Takeaways
- Jake Paul, as a significant underdog, has created massive liabilities in boxing markets.
- DraftKings expects this bout to be the fight of the year in terms of handle.
- Paul has created a strong betting interest in the sport.
Money is pouring in on the +700 underdog Paul to win the eight-round sanctioned heavyweight fight broadcast live on Netflix from Miami, causing a projected $100-million liability for DraftKings, sportsbook director Johnny Avello told Covers on Friday.
“That’s a big hit. Believe me, that’s a big liability on any event that we do,” Avello said. “We’ve been in these situations before, but it’s not like it’s an everyday occurrence. It has to be an event that’s really promoted, and it’s on a platform that a lot of viewers can see it and bet on it.”
Friday’s fight certainly meets Avello's criteria. Only about 15% to 20% of the money DraftKings expects to be wagered was in on Friday morning, meaning the vast majority is still to come, and the operator is projecting the Paul trend to continue.
“The liability will be significant by the time we get to the fight,” Avello said.
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Major spectacle
Boxing isn’t what it used to be in terms of national interest, but when Paul fights, people pay attention, especially bettors and sportsbooks.
Paul’s rise to boxing stardom is directly tied to his influence in the social media space, where he has 20.9 million followers on YouTube, 28.2 million on Instagram, and 4.4 million on X.
Avello also expects Paul-Joshua to top Canelo Alvarez-Terence Crawford, the latter of whom won the September bout, as the fight of the year by handle.
However, because Joshua is listed as a -1,200 favorite, bettors aren’t taking his side to win so little, leading to a wild split discrepancy. DraftKings reported that 90% of the money and 82% of the wagers are backing Paul in his biggest challenge yet as a professional boxer.
Avello said that keeps this bout from reaching the kind of handle Paul versus Mike Tyson generated a year ago, which was one of the most-bet combat sports events ever at multiple sportsbooks.
“What it will most likely top is our largest liability on a fight because of the odds,” Avello said. “With this being on Netflix, Jake Paul’s got the star power, the whole fight being David versus Goliath, it’ll be one of the most-watched boxing events of all time.”
Paul is popular
DraftKings isn’t alone in being on the hook for a major loss if Paul, who’s 12-1 professionally, finds a way to beat the accomplished Joshua, who is 28-4 with 25 knockouts but is coming off of elbow surgery.
BetMGM reported on Friday that 93% of the tickets and 83% of the bets are backing the social media star at +550.
Joshua is getting just 20.1% of the wagers at theScore Bet, and Fanatics Sportsbook told Covers this week that Paul is a popular pick with 72% of the bets.
“A Problem Child win would be a real problem for the books,” BET99 sportsbook manager Cliff Adelman said. “Betting traffic has been completely one way on Jake Paul since he opened at +625. He has been bet down steadily, but there is still very little appetite for Anthony Joshua at -850."
Propping up the fight
There are several other prop markets, like method of victory and total rounds, attracting bettors. Avello said DraftKings is getting sprinkled with “good action everywhere.”
Paul to win by knockout/technical knockout or disqualification with odds of +1,200 is the most-bet prop at BetMGM. Paul to win on points/technical decision (+1,200) is third. Joshua is getting action at +450 to win on points/technical decision and +650 to win by unanimous decision.
With this being a high-profile fight on a popular streaming service, it’s no surprise where bettors are leaning in terms of how long the bout will last. DraftKings reported that 98% of the money in the total rounds market is on the over 2.5 at -145. The online sportsbook is even offering a +150 boost to take Joshua to win in the first two rounds, which is generating some action.
JAKE PAUL vs. ANTHONY JOSHUA TONIGHT‼️
— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) December 19, 2025
Anthony Joshua to finish Jake Paul in R1-R2 is boosted to +150 💪 pic.twitter.com/KNCZJvDaD1
theScore Bet customers are getting in on Joshua to win by KO, the most-bet prop by handle. Fanatics’ most popular prop is Joshua to win in the first round. Paul has never been knocked out.
“We even dangled a juicy no-vig line on Joshua to finish Jake in Round 1 at +350, yet bettors continue backing Jake to avoid an early knockout at -350,” Adelman said. “That lines up with broader trends we are seeing on the fight to go over 2.5 rounds and to go the distance. On the novelty side, our specials bettors are leaning toward Jake winning at least one round on the scorecard, Joshua to sport white gloves, and Jake Paul having the longer walkout.”
