Four-time All-Star Outfield Kyle Tucker signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday threw World Series and MLB futures odds for a loop.
The Dodgers, who were already favored to win the World Series, nearly have a one-in-three chance to win the championship, according to top sportsbooks.
Key Takeaways
- The Dodgers are spending more than 1.5 times as much as the team with the second-highest bill.
- Sportsbooks had the Dodgers at +240 to win the World Series before last season began.
- Only two franchises have ever three-peated in the World Series, the most recent being the Yankees (1998-2000).
The Dodgers are the reigning back-to-back World Series champions. They beat the Toronto Blue Jays in seven games last year and the New York Yankees in five games before that.
If there’s a price to pay for winning, the Dodgers are willing to handle the bill. With Tucker agreeing to a four-year, $240 million deal, LA will pay an estimated $575.6 million in payroll and estimated tax bill, more than 1.5 times that of the New York Mets, who are second in estimated spending ($372.7 million).
According to BetMGM, the Dodgers’ most recent investment into Tucker dropped them from +300 to +225 to win the World Series, meaning they have a 30.8% implied chance to win three straight titles. They also moved from +160 to +130 to win the National League and -375 to -650 to win the NL West.
DraftKings showed that the Dodgers shortened from +300 to +250 to win the World Series, +165 to +135 to win the NL, and -500 to -600 to win the NL West.
theScore Bet revealed a similar movement. Their World Series odds showed the Dodgers dropped from +300 to +225 and shortened from +140 to +125 to win the NL.
The Dodgers also have a market-leading 37% of bets and 36.1% of the handle in World Series futures bets at theScore Bet. Additionally, 85.9% of all World Series winner tickets placed since Thursday night were on the Dodgers.
The Blue Jays are second in both tickets and handle, but well behind at 15.4% and 19.4%, respectively.
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Does the MLB need a salary cap?
The Dodgers’ ability to spend an exorbitant amount of money has been the source of controversy amid their dynastic run.
Unlike the NFL and NBA, where teams have a maximum threshold for their spending, MLB teams spend as much money as they’d like, instead imposing a luxury tax. However, that could soon change, as the league’s Collective Bargaining Agreement will expire on Dec. 1 this year.
Until changes are made or teams step up to the plate, the league will run through Los Angeles. BetMGM’s second-place team in World Series odds, the Yankees, are at +1000, meaning they are separated by a 20.9% difference in implied probability. That’s an extraordinary amount, considering there hasn’t been a single pitch thrown.
According to SportsOddsHistory, the Dodgers were a +240 favorite when the season began last year.
Given they’re as low as +225, they are considered 1.4% more likely to win the title this year than they were the last one.
How do the Dodgers stack up historically?
SportsOddsHistory’s odds date back to 1985. In that time, there was only one World Series champion that had shorter preseason odds than the 2026 Dodgers: the 1999 New York Yankees, who swept the Atlanta Braves after beginning the year at +200.
Interestingly, the Yankees only had the third-best regular-season record in 1999. Their 98-64 finish was behind the Braves (103-59) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (100-62).
BetMGM has the Dodgers at a projected win total of 103.5 ahead of the new campaign, while DraftKings moved them from 99.5 to 102.5 after the Tucker signing.
The Dodgers won 93, 98 and 100 games in the last three regular seasons and tied the fourth-most wins in an MLB season in 2022, going 111-51.
