An investment service company is projecting less wagering on Super Bowl LX than the previous year’s “Big Game.”
Key Takeaways
- Analyst believes sportsbooks won’t obtain such a high hold again, leading to a decrease in revenue.
- Prediction markets will have a greater impact than the previous “Big Game.”
- Seahawks-Patriots lacks the star power and draw of Chiefs-Eagles, analyst says.
Citizens Equity Research analyst Jordan Bender said on Tuesday that he expects the NFL’s Feb. 8 championship game between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots to generate a $1.5-billion handle, a 2% year-over-year dip.
Investment bank Citizens is forecasting a slight, 2% dip in legal wagering on this year's Super Bowl, to $1.5B. Possible explanations: a (relative) lack of promos, a lack of Swift, and an abundance of prediction markets. pic.twitter.com/2ouql0gPae
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) January 28, 2026
Bender cited three seasons for the decrease, including Missouri being the only state to launch legal sports betting since the previous Super Bowl. That will affect promotional spending by sports betting operators, which could be better for those companies’ bottom line.
However, Bender said it’s unlikely that the sportsbooks produce a 17% hold like last year, which led to massive profits. The Citizens analyst projects a 35% year-over-year revenue decrease.
Bender also said sports betting app downloads during last weekend’s AFC and NFC Championship Games were flat compared to the same period in 2025, but the “industry benefited” from weather conditions on the East Coast that keep people at home and wagering.
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Market madness
The Citizens analyst projects legal sportsbooks to feel the competition from prediction market platforms, which have exploded in both number and sports event contract offerings since this time last year, during Super Bowl LX.
“Prediction markets, already seeing impressive volume on the game, are creating some pressure in the legal market,” Bender wrote.
Kalshi and Crypto.com were two of the first trading exchanges to offer Super Bowl game winner markets in 2025. Now, those platforms have evolved, and Polymarket, DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics have all entered the space.
Prediction markets are federally regulated and available in all 50 U.S. states, while legal sportsbooks are active in 39 states. California and Texas, two of the most populous jurisdictions, only have prediction markets. Some legal sports betting states, like New York, Massachusetts, and New Jersey, are trying to force out Kalshi and others, but ongoing legal battles won’t likely be resolved before Feb. 8.
Lack of star power
Bender also predicts that “less of a storyline” will lead to a smaller handle. Last year’s showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles featured big names like Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Saquon Barkley.
It also helped that Taylor Swift, one of the world’s most popular singers, is in a relationship with Kelce, bringing more attention and betting dollars to that game, Bender points out.
This year, the game features a quarterback duel between Seattle’s Sam Darnold and New England’s Drake Maye. Neither has much star power at this point in their careers, especially compared to Mahomes and Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts, who have multiple endorsement deals.
