It only took one week of college football action for Heisman Trophy odds to be thrown for a loop.
LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is now the odds-on leader to win the Heisman, while consensus pre-season favorite Arch Manning took a huge fall.
Key Takeaways
- Arch Manning had a disappointing season opener in a loss to Ohio State
- Miami's Carson Beck took the largest step in likelihood to win the Heisman
- Despite winning, OSU WR Jeremiah Smith Jr. lost traction due to having a mediocre game
Just two weeks ago, several top sportsbooks, including bet365, BetMGM, Caesars, ESPN Bet, and FanDuel, all gave Manning Heisman odds between +600 and +700.
The nephew of NFL legends Peyton and Eli Manning did not go as he would’ve hoped. Visiting the national champion and third-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes, Manning went 17-30 for 170 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, to go with 38 rushing yards on 10 carries in a 14-7 loss.
FanDuel now has the shortest Heisman odds for Manning, though he’s down to +1400, or a 6.7 percent implied chance. ESPN Bet has the longest odds of +2000, which translates to a 4.8 percent implied probability.
Nussmeier experienced a much different beginning to the season. His ninth-ranked LSU Tigers beat No. 4 Clemson on the road, 17-10, while he went 28-38 for 232 yards and a touchdown. He’s as low as +750 to win the Heisman at bet365.
South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers isn’t far behind at +900 following a hard-fought win over Virginia Tech, 24-11. Sellers didn’t accomplish much as a runner but went 12-19 for 209 yards and two total touchdowns.
Major movement in Heisman odds
| Player | Heisman odds (bet365) |
|---|---|
| Garrett Nussmeier | +750 |
| LaNorris Sellers | +900 |
| Carson Beck | +1200 |
| Gunner Stockton | +1200 |
| John Mateer | +1400 |
| Cade Klubnik | +1400 |
| Arch Manning | +1600 |
| Jeremiah Smith Jr. | +1600 |
| Sam Leavitt | +1600 |
| Drew Allar | +1800 |
| Dante Moore | +2000 |
| Jackson Arnold | +2000 |
Although he is third in Heisman odds at most sportsbooks, one of the biggest Week 1 winners was Miami QB Carson Beck.
The former Georgia star returned to the field for the first time since he suffered a torn UCL to beat national runner-up Notre Dame as a three-point underdog, 27-24. He went 20-31 for 205 yards and two touchdowns amid pouring rain to take down the sixth-ranked team in the country. FanDuel has him at +950, making them the only sportsbook to rank Beck above Sellers (+1000 at Fanduel).
Oklahoma QB John Mateer also had an excellent day in his pursuit of the Heisman.
Shrugging off the weight of a scandal in which he was accused of participating in illegal sports gambling, the first-time Sooner went 30-37 for 392 yards, three touchdowns, an interception, and had seven carries for 24 yards and a rushing TD in a 35-3 win over Illinois State. Mateer had only been around +3000 in late August.
Georgia QB Gunner Stockton also moved ahead in the race, settling as low as +1200 at bet365 and BetMGM. He racked up 263 total yards and four TDs in only three quarters of a 45-7 win against Marshall.
In the opposite vein, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik and Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith Jr. fell down the ladder due to their Week 1 performances.
Klubnik went 19-38 for 230 yards and an interception in the loss to LSU. Smith Jr. was limited to six receptions for 43 yards in the win over No. 1 Texas.
A quarterback’s award?
Top sportsbooks previously reported that Manning was the most popular Heisman bet nearly across the board.
“Action has been steady on the National Championship thus far around Texas, as well as Arch Manning in the Heisman market,” Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars Sportsbook, said in a statement shared with Covers. “Both are heavy leaders in handle and tickets.
Seven of the last nine Heisman winners were quarterbacks. Notably, that did not apply to last year’s winner, Travis Hunter, who played cornerback and wide receiver at the University of Colorado.
All but two of the top 20 leaders in Heisman odds are quarterbacks. The exceptions are WR Smith Jr. and Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love.
You can check out the latest College Football odds.
