The Boston Celtics trading former Finals MVP Jaylen Brown to the Philadelphia 76ers dramatically impacted NBA Finals odds at sportsbooks and NBA prediction market prices.
Key Takeaways
- The 76ers are fifth in odds to win the NBA Finals at BetMGM.
- Kalshi and Polymarket bumped the 76ers from 1% chance of winning the title to as high as 6%.
- Reports suggest Brown wore out his welcome in Boston.
Brown, who spent his first 10 years in Boston was traded for Paul George, two first-round picks, and two second-rounders Wednesday.
BetMGM shared with Covers that the 76ers were only +6,600 (1.5% implied chance) to win the Finals before the trade. They vaulted to +2,000 (4.8% chance), which is fifth on the board.
BetMGM also noted 35% of bets and 40% of money wagered in the NBA Finals futures market - both highest amounts - were on the 76ers. That represented roughly a 13-hour period from approximately 6 p.m. ET on Wednesday through 7 a.m. on Thursday.
.@sixers odds to win NBA Championship at @BetMGM
— BetMGM News (@BetMGMNews) July 2, 2026
Before Jaylen Brown trade: +6600
After: +2000 ⬆️
40% of money (most) is on 76ers to win the NBA title since the trade pic.twitter.com/IKcen9N6MP
A similar trend emerged in the Eastern Conference futures market. The Sixers moved from +2,000 (4.8% chance) to win the conference pre-trade to +700 (12.5% chance), drawing 54% of bets and 68% of the handle during the period after the trade was reported.
The Celtics did not enjoy the same surge in NBA championship odds. They fell from +700 (12.5% chance), the third-shortest amount and shortest in the East to +1,400 (6.7% chance). They also lengthened from +260 (27.8% chance) to +450 (18.2% chance) to win the conference.
The Sixers now have the second-largest share of tickets to win the title (8.8%), only behind the Golden State Warriors (15.7%). They’re also third in handle (9.4%), trailing the Oklahoma City Thunder (32%) and Warriors (12.5%).
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Prediction markets adjust to trade
Just like sportsbooks, NBA prediction markets underwent significant changes after the Brown trade was reported.
Market data from Polymarket shows the Sixers jumped from 1.1% to 5.7% by Thursday morning, peaking as high as 6%. The Celtics dropped from 8% to 6%.
The Thunder (21%) and San Antonio Spurs (17%) are the obvious market leaders, followed by the defending champion New York Knicks (11%). The Celtics are still fourth, although the Sixers and Miami Heat (5.8%) are just behind.
Kalshi’s markets went through a similar adjustment. The Sixers went from 1% to 6% by 8 a.m. on Thursday, although they dropped back down to 4% during the two ensuing hours.
Kalshi also dropped the Celtics from 10% to 7%, which, like Polymarket, is fourth on the board.
The 2027 Finals are still about a year away, but Kalshi and Polymarket already reported approximately $10.5 million in total combined trades in their next champion markets.
Rivalry renewed
The Brown trade will add another chapter to the Celtics-76ers rivalry. The two teams will meet the customary four times during the regular season.
The 76ers recovered from a 3-1 deficit to eliminate the Celtics in the first round of the playoffs last year. Brown went on a livestream the following day and said Sixers star center Joel Embiid was a flopper.
"Flopping has ruined our game."
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) July 1, 2026
Now Jaylen Brown and Joel Embiid are teammates 👀
(via fchwpo/Twitch) pic.twitter.com/ctIl1dmzwJ
Sources told The Herd's Colin Cowherd that Brown has a “disease” which made him think he was always the smartest in the room, leading to strained relationships in Boston.
NBA sources believe Jaylen Brown thinks he’s the smartest person in the room, per @colincowherd
— NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral) July 2, 2026
“I had two NBA sources … two people in the league, one an executive, one a scout, say that Jaylen Brown has — it’s a disease. He suddenly thinks he’s the smartest guy in every room… pic.twitter.com/aBhgNSfXiF
