World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is coming off his third career major championship, and he’s the betting favorite in the Charles Schwab Challenge odds this week at the storied Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas.
Here are my top golf picks for the event and the final stop in The Lone Star State during the 2025 PGA Tour season.
Golf picks for the Charles Schwab Challenge 2025
- Berger to win outright (+2500 at DraftKings)
- Gerard to win outright (+7000 at FanDuel)
- English Top 30 (-105 at DraftKings)
- Novak Top 30 (+137 at bet365)
- Spieth Over 2.5 Round 1 bogeys or worse (-125 at DraftKings)
Charles Schwab Challenge outright picks
Outright pick: Daniel Berger
+2500 at DraftKings
Daniel Berger took down the 2020 Charles Schwab, and he’s rolling with 10 straight cuts made while gaining true strokes across the board, including ranking second in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and third on approach during the heater.
He’s also picked up two Top 5s during the run and an additional six Top 25s. The strong finishes have come in top-heavy fields, too, and this week’s Charles Schwab isn’t a who’s who of PGA Tour stars.
Outright pick: Ryan Gerard
+7000 at FanDuel
Ryan Gerard is quietly turning in an excellent 2025 PGA Tour season, and he impressively ranks ninth in adjusted scoring average and 11th in Par-4 scoring average.
While the underlying numbers don’t jump off the page, he's gained true strokes across the board and knocked on victory’s door with a solo second at the Valero in April. He's also a Korn Ferry winner and has a Mackenzie Tour win on his resume.
Finally, his T8 in the PGA Championship last week was his seventh Top 20 of the year, and Gerard finished the event third in true strokes gained tee-to-green.
Charles Schwab Challenge prop picks
Finishing position pick: Harris English Top 30
-105 at DraftKings
I’m anticipating Harris English carrying over his strong T2 showing at the PGA Championship — which included a Sunday-low 65 — to the Charles Schwab this week. He’s flashed at Colonial, too, with a pair of Top 5s earlier in his career and a T12 in 2023.
He's also gained true strokes across the board in consecutive events, with his T11 in the Truist preceding last week’s career-best finish in a major.
His ball-striking, in particular, has my attention. He ranks third in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and fifth on approach through his past eight rounds, and his putter finally caught up at Quail Hollow with +2.51 true strokes gained on the greens in the final round.
Finishing position pick: Andrew Novak Top 30
+137 at bet365
While the PGA Championship was a write-off for Andrew Novak, he was dialed in through his previous four events with his win in the Zurich team event, two more Top 5s, and a T17 in the Truist.
Additionally, he gained true strokes across the board during the four-event run, including ranking third in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and 17th in true strokes gained putting.
This will be Novak’s third trip to Colonial, and I expect a rebound showing following the missed cut at Quail Hollow last week.
Charles Schwab Challenge first-round pick
Round 1 pick: Jordan Spieth Over 2.5 bogeys or worse
-125 at DraftKings
Colonial is definitely a familiar track for the Texan, and Jordan Spieth won here in 2016 and has another seven Top-10 finishes. Still, he just missed the cut at the PGA Championship and ranks 96th on approach and 108th in driving accuracy in this field across his past two events.
It’s not exactly the recipe for avoiding squares on the card, and the 10-time PGA Tour winner also ranks a ho-hum 58th in bogey avoidance. I expect a bounce-back week for Spieth, but it won’t be without a few blemishes along the way.
Spieth has also averaged 3.0 bogeys or worse per round across his past two visits to Colonial, and he’s 92nd on Tour in Round 1 scoring average.
Charles Schwab Challenge odds
- Scottie Scheffler: +250
- Jordan Spieth: +2200
- Daniel Berger: +2200
- Tommy Fleetwood: +2500
- Hideki Matsuyama: +2800
- Aaron Rai: +3000
- Maverick McNealy: +3000
- Si Woo Kim: +4000
- Harris English: +4000
Odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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