Monday

I’d love to take the Storm-2.5 and the over tonight.  I just can’t 

I was looking at some past trends and filtering out some situations .  Initially the Storm qualified for a play, but the data became foggy was because they lost by so much against PHX last game the play became obsolete. 

why is this total above 165 after she Storms last game ?  Even if it’s the Wings (who are 25-10 to the over, their last 35 games and also 8-27 ATS in the same 35 games.  At this point the Wings are on my don’t touch list until they come back in balance. 

Technically the over is in play but the Storm were an under team last season and game was confirmed no changes to this point. 

Bucking the Wings current over trend might be a sharp idea because the Storm are not a type of team to bet overs  on when the total is so high.  In the other hand can we trust the Wings to stay under control defensively.  

Last note: Storm also finished last season 6-15 ATS after a very solid start to 2024. 

It’s just one of those games where 2 fat guys are playing teeter totter and who is going to win the battle. One of them is going to be sent flying. 

Low line home dog that pretty much means the Wings have to get a lead at some point.  To be comfortable with low line home dogs might like the team to have a 10 point lead somewhere in the game.  If the Storm play like last game they could but this is the Wings.  The past data doesn’t support either team. 

I lean Storm and under but finding a spot in game (mostly looking at the total) might be the best way to play this one.  Lean under in game live betting. Even that sounds dangerous. 

In past seasons I tried to ride a bad ATS trending team like the Wings, but that failed. They never got hot.  Unless they pick up the pace (after all it’s only one game) I won’t trust them. 

They went 13-27 ATS last year.  The worst team by a full three games (Sky next worse at 16-24).  

Seattles team total is:

84.5 -110

after game 1’s terrible output this could be an over for them. If not their next game lines and team total will be out of favor and the lines will adjust. 

if Seattle struggles to open up the game the team total may be appealing to me.  They should be able to get 75 here tonight and if not a serious line adjustment will be on the table. 

if I can get a team total for Seattle at 75 or less I will test the waters.  

On the flip side  don’t think any half can get 95 points.  Seattle usually can’t reach that level.  So high half, or quarters at high premium lines will be considered. 

This is a year in which volatility could be an issue.  Because of the rosters being invaded by a new team GSV opportunities can rise.  That means high points because of lack of D and low points and shooting problems because of bench depth.  

stay on the in game and find opportunities.  Do your homework by using past stats.  

@WNBASharp31

 This is valuable info to me.  I think the wings can accomplish winning spreads against teams with lesser benches and after playing a team that killed them last game.  

if I’m playing on the wings it’s best to play on them after a big shocking loss.  Also against a lesser team.  Increase the lines and decrease the opponent strength.  

@spottie2935

 The biggest adjustment concern the Sun. All 5 starters gone. All very good players. In the last 6 years they have lost in the finals 2 times and the semi-finals 4 times. Granted the starting 5 was not the same the last 6 years. Although now a basic total dismantle of the team gives many other teams players who know how to win. 

@gotime

 Yes so we should expect improvements from teams that have lacked high performances in past seasons.  As for the Sun their lines will be much different now.  They should be vulnerable to good and bad streaks, and inconsistencies. 

play against the Sun after a failed cover and  maybe catch them on a down trend. If they cover one can wait for another failure.  

The team should be on a down trend winning, scoring and defense wise.  See if we can take advantage. 

Seattles team total  on fire as we suspected 

Seattle team points is 25 If this continues it’s 100 point game yet the team total is 88.5 

After a 50 point 1st Q the total for the 2nd Q is 39.5 even in a Wings game.  That shows what the books know about 2nd quarters.  It’s much more about resting starters and fatigue. After a high potent start

And no I’m not playing an under at this point.  It’s too volatile 

This is why the Wings are so terrible in their last 35 games.  It continues in the first half.  

I’m not laying extra points in the second half but the Storm look to continue this high level play tonight.  A nice bounce back for the Storm so far.