Posted:
#126
Which I'm assuming he will do...need him to have him in a 2 teamer
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WIMBLEDON 2014 PICKS with short reasoning
(won't count that)
Posted:
#134
Quote Originally Posted by lsu-saints4ever:
ROGER100....This Ferrer match is a good example of what I was talking about..Do u think he would've lost that 2nd set 6-0 if it was the 5th set? Of course not..He was purposely trying to tire his opponent out after being down 2-0, even if it meant losing the set...Only to come on strong and win the next 2 sets
ROGER100....This Ferrer match is a good example of what I was talking about..Do u think he would've lost that 2nd set 6-0 if it was the 5th set? Of course not..He was purposely trying to tire his opponent out after being down 2-0, even if it meant losing the set...Only to come on strong and win the next 2 sets
Yeah, I've been thinking about this. It seems to me that this kind of situation can be compared to football or basketball: Big fav gets up very big, begins resting starters, other team comes back late and gets backdoor cover.
And I think the market probably adjusts for this -- i.e., the possibility of the backdoor cover, or garbage-time shenanigans -- can keep the spread lower than the Power Ratings would suggest it ought to be.
It's similar with OT in basketball: when a game goes into OT, it usually screws under betters. But if you look at long-term trends, Overs and Unders each cash 50% of the time. So...the market's number would be too high if games were graded at the end of regulation (in other words, there's a preponderance of unders cashing in games ending in regulation, a preponderance of overs in games that go to OT).
So my suspicion is that the phenomenon you're talking about is accounted for in the market. If it's not, then we should be able to exploit the mis-pricing by pounding the big dogs ATS...
At any rate, Kvitova covered the -5 with ease, so your picks were 1-0 ATS for the day.
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Posted:
#139
My bankroll is chilling as u saw it only used a free play for that 8 teamer and lost the other parlay but got it all back and some with kvitova straight then kvitova live at 2-2 for my entire balance...sparty chimes in 30 minutes later when it's 5-2 and rushes back to my thread to try and discredit me lol...but anyway if have a huge rollover to meet therefore I'm going bttw tonite...picks in a few
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Posted:
#141
By the way xibeleli as you saw it only made that many bets with bets in was unsure about because it tried a couple parlays one was a longshot...As it mentioned the matches in was unsure about lost sure enough....coco was a surprise though and did f me in the assignment is will be the 1st to admit that...had she won today's thread would've been very profitable...but the past is the past
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