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Huge hedge question with Cibulkova....need tons of help

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Posted: #1
I might not even have a chance to do much with this bet, but Im wondering what some of you would do.

I have Cibulkova 200 for about 12,000 to win the French Open

She has been unstoppable in the first 3 rounds, but now faces the #1 Azarenka.

The Line is -350



In this situation is there anything I SHOULD do? to get some winnings? 

Or is the logical way to go is to let it ride because there really isnt any way to make some cash out of it?

Just to let you know , the minimum I would like is at least 2000 of a hedge. But is it worth it?



 
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Posted: #2
Personally, I'd let that one ride so far. Gonna be a close one! If she happens to make it to the final, then I would hedge with Sharapova, providing she makes it there herself, which I think she will. I have Sharapova winning it.

GL
 
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Posted: #3
Its not possible to hedge it this early in the tournament. You buy Aza at -350 and if Cibulkova pulls out a miracle, then you lose your hedge and will need to hedge again in next match...  you need to wait until the semis at least to get a prop bet (something like anyone other than Cibul to win the tourney)
 
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Posted: #4
Cibulkova is the one woman who has consistently given Azarenka fits. Check out their match history. BUT this version of Azarenka is very difficult to beat.
 
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Posted: #5
put $1,050 on azarenka. If she wins, you get your bet amount back plus $100 profit.
 
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Posted: #6
Oh, just saw you want minimum of $2,000 hedge. I don't think you can do that yet. Do $1,400 to win $400. If Azarenka wins, you still double your original bet amount. If Cibulkova wins, you still essentially have $10,600 of hedge money to play with.
 
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Posted: #7
Wait a minute, you need Cib to win the whole tourney, yet are looking to hedge in the first week against the #1 player?  You do realize Cibulkova would still have to beat another THREE very good players AFTER this right?  You cant hedge in the fourth round! It's not like this is Nadal playing Djokovic and then having a clear path afterwards.
 
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Posted: #8
Here is how I see future lines if this helps you out any....hedge accordingly to how you believe the bracket plays out.

Cibulkova +130
Stosur -170

Cibulkova -320
Stephens +195

Cibulkova -135
Kuznetsova +115

Cibulkova -110
Errani -110

Cibulkova -260
Kerber +150

Cibulkova -480
Martic +260
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by rzagza:

Wait a minute, you need Cib to win the whole tourney, yet are looking to hedge in the first week against the #1 player?  You do realize Cibulkova would still have to beat another THREE very good players AFTER this right?  You cant hedge in the fourth round! It's not like this is Nadal playing Djokovic and then having a clear path afterwards.

RZ, I dont necessarily disagree with the hedge here. This is likely the win or lose match for the guy here. If Cibulkova wins here, she will likely be favored in every match until the finals and has a pretty clear path to the finals. He can affordably hedge the rest of the way if she is indeed favored in every match as I expect.. Keep in mind, he has $11,800 of hedge money to play with up to break even point. 
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by dougieaction:


RZ, I dont necessarily disagree with the hedge here. This is likely the win or lose match for the guy here. If Cibulkova wins here, she will likely be favored in every match until the finals and has a pretty clear path to the finals. He can affordably hedge the rest of the way if she is indeed favored in every match as I expect.. Keep in mind, he has $11,800 of hedge money to play with up to break even point. 

She will be a dog against Stosur in the very next round, so no this is not "the" match.  He only staked $200 on the wager, and Cibulkova is still a longshot to win this thing even if she gets past the 2 top 5 players she's staring down in the next 3 days.  Have you seen Sharapova's form in this tourney?
 
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Posted: #11
Assuming you hedge $1,400 on azarenka...

Azarenka loses...-$1400 + $200 on cibulkova $1600 to win $12000

Next match you likely have to hedge $2000

Cibulkova wins again...$3600 to win $12,000

You would now be in the semis...

You now have to hedge $4,000-$5,000

Cibulkova wins....$7600-$8600 to win $12,000 and youd still have another match youd have to hedge.
 
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Posted: #12
After doing the math, I agree RZ. Way too early to hedge. It's only $200. Just let it ride. 
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by rzagza:


She will be a dog against Stosur in the very next round, so no this is not "the" match.  He only staked $200 on the wager, and Cibulkova is still a longshot to win this thing even if she gets past the 2 top 5 players she's staring down in the next 3 days.  Have you seen Sharapova's form in this tourney?

Sharapova isn't in her side of the bracket, but I understand. If Cibulkova can get past Azarenka I think he has a legitimate shot of seeing her get to the finals. I could easily see a Cibulkova-Sharapova final if Cibulkova takes down Vika.
 
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Posted: #14
Thanks guys
 
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Posted: #15
now it gets interesting?
 
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Posted: #16
Did you hedge?
 
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Posted: #17
Would be nice if Stosur got knocked off for you. You pretty much have to wait til the semis to hedge. 
 
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Posted: #18
u can hedge by betting against Cibulkova to win the tournament if you really wanted (betfair) where she is currently +1250 to win it all, you would get around 800$ profit. 
 
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Posted: #19
 
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Posted: #20
Fuck this is confusing what should i do....ill give out .5% of what i win if someone can figure out a perfect way to do this right



although just by doing some quick thinking , i dont think its worth it to do anything unless sharapova gets bounced
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by dougieaction:

Did you hedge?


nope, didnt hedge
 
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Posted: #22
should i just use 1000 to pick cibulkova's potential opponnents TO WIN THE TOURNEY, and then just pick the most likely to win the tournament also?
 
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Posted: #23
What do i do??????


do i continue to ride it out?
 
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Posted: #24
Nice work mate, Id probably lay off a bit on the Stosur match, be a shame to not make any money out of a great bet
 
 
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Posted: #25
If you are going to do anything then as stated above you can fade Cibulkova on Betfair; far better than betting everyone else to win it.
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