French Open Preview + Daily Picks

2016 French Open First Quarter Preview: Novak Djokovic (1)

Seeded Players (French Open Record)
1. Novak Djokovic (48-11)
7. Tomas Berdych (20-12)
11. David Ferrer (40-13)
14. Roberto Baustista Agut (4-3)
20. Bernard Tomic (2-6)
21. Feliciano Lopez (8-15)
25. Pablo Cuevas (4-6)
31. Federico Delbonis (1-3)

Seed Report
Just looking at the seeds, you can see how punch less this quarter is against Djokovic. The top two “threats” of Berdych and Ferrer have both seen better days. Berdych comes to Roland Garros after firing his coach and completing an absolute mess of a match in Rome, where he lost 6-0, 6-0 to David Goffin. The Czech has been beaten in the opening round at Roland Garros three times since 2009 and gets Vasek Pospisil in this year’s opener. The Canadian is the proud owner of a 1-15 mark on clay in his ATP career and that lone win came in Davis Cup play. However, Pospisil has beaten Berdych twice and who knows what mental state the Czech is in right now.

Ferrer has struggled to return from injuries with great consistency. He made it to the third round in Madrid and Rome, where he lost to Berdych and Lucas Pouille respectively. He lost in the semifinals this past week to Marin Cilic 7-5, 7-5 in Geneva. He may be hard pressed to continue his impressive streak of making the quarterfinals in four years straight in Paris, but it’s still feasible given his draw. The rest of the seeded contingent in this quarter has a combined record of 19-33 and you can’t look at any of those players as a legitimate threat to Djokovic barring an injury to the top seed.

Upset Alert
With five seeds losing their opening round matches in each of the last six years, there are bound to be players who look more prone than others to joining that club. In this quarter, it’s hard to find one despite a number of lackluster lower seeds. Bernard Tomic would be #1 on the list most weeks on clay, but matching up against Brian Baker makes life easier. Still, the Aussie is 0-4 on dirt this year and has just one win since making the Acapulco final in February. It would be a massive ask for Baker to pull that off, but clay was one of his favorite surfaces back in his healthier days.

Bautista Agut is the other seed I will add to the list of potential upset victims, but he gets an out-of-sorts Dmitry Tursunov. Still, the Russian has beaten him twice, including on clay in Rome back in 2014. Tursunov hasn’t won on clay since beating Potito Starace in the first round at Roland Garros in 2014, so it might be asking far too much of him in this spot. Still, if you’re looking for a stunner, this would be one worth a dartboard shot perhaps.

The real deal stunner though could be Mr.First Round Exit himself, Tomas Berdych. Yes, he gets Pospisil who has one more career win on clay than I do (that’s one total), but Mr.Pop owns two wins over Berdych in their careers. Granted, both have come on hard courts, but he is getting a potentially “lost” Berdych in this spot. What mind set Berdych is in after firing his coach after his infamous double bagel loss to David Goffin in Rome is anyone’s guess. Pospisil has been more competitive on clay this year, but just has not found the win column. Tough to say it would happen here, but with Berdych …. all things are possible.

Draw Breakdown
I just can’t see what would trouble Djokovic greatly in this quarter. He opens against Yen-Hsun Lu who has been playing on hard courts on the Challenger circuit. The highest seeds he could meet en route to the quarterfinals are Delbonis (R3) and Bautista Agut (R4). The bottom of the draw looks like it might shape up for nicely for Ferrer. Juan Monaco might have been a tougher out in round two if they meet, but a hip problem for the Argentine may have him in for a rough time. The rest of it looks navigable for the Spaniard who could find himself into another quarterfinal if he can get rolling. Whether it’s Ferrer, Berdych or someone surprising, that prospective QF for Djokovic looks like one he should win.

The dark horses to watch in this quarter are playing each other in the opening round; Borna Coric and Taylor Fritz. These two young and talented players could benefit from the match-ups to get a few wins. Coric seems the likelier with a better repertoire on dirt, but don’t discount Fritz who has the talent to win on clay. He just needs a bit more seasoning, so winning a best of five might not be in the cards for him this year. The winner would get the Tomic-Baker winner, a nice match-up for either on clay. The third round could then yield Bautista Agut if seeds hold. This not being the Spaniard’s best surface, there is certainly room for a surprise run for the survivor of the first round Coric-Fritz battle.

One other match of note in the opening round is Hyeon Chung vs Quentin Halys. Halys won a Challenger on clay this year and will of course be receiving the support of the home French crowd. Chung though is every bit good enough to win here as he’s shown to be a good fighter with solid court coverage. His problem has been serve consistency, something that Halys can do at a different level when everything falls into place. This figures to be one of the more entertaining first round matches.

Predictions
Djokovic advances to the semifinals. Berdych and/or Tomic loses early. Ferrer beats Father Time and continues his quarterfinal streak.

Seeded Players (French Open Record)
4. Rafael Nadal (70-2)
6. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (25-8)
12. David Goffin (5-4)
13. Dominic Thiem (2-2)
18. Kevin Anderson (11-6)
24. Philipp Kohlschreiber (13-11)
26. Joao Sousa (2-4)
32. Fabio Fognini (13-7)

Seed Report
This quarter would look much more dangerous for Nadal if Tsonga hadn’t been injured and Fognini had muddled his way to a 9-9 record so far this season. Still though, this has some tricky dates for a Rafa return to glory. Tsonga was a semifinalist last year at Roland Garros, but withdrew from Rome due to a thigh injury. It might have been the prudent thing to do after the Frenchman reported being sick in Madrid and then picking up the thigh issue in Rome preps.

In Tsonga’s bottom half of the quarter, David Goffin will be highlighted as one to watch. He has a manageable draw with wildcard Gregoire Barrere to open and then one of two veterans, Carlos Berlocq or Paolo Lorenzi. The highlight first round match in this part of the draw is 26th seed Philipp Kohlschreiber against Nicolas Almagro. They have met nine times with Almagro leading 5-4, but no meetings since 2013. Almagro won his first title in nearly four years back in April in Estoril, to show he still has some chops on clay.

You’ll hear plenty from the talking heads about Fabio Fognini this week an a possible third round encounter with Nadal if seeds hold. That’s a big IF. Fognini’s form has as always been both shite and formidable this season. A first round match against a resurgent Marcel Granollers could make a Rafa-Fab showdown moot.

Thiem stands out as the most dangerous seed in this quarter though. The Austrian may head to Paris with the Nice title in his pocket for the second straight season. His clay form has been solid in 2016 and all he seems to lack at Grand Slams is the experience of getting a break-thru moment. He has only made it past the third round of a Slam once in his career, so getting a step further would be a big win for him.

Upset Alert
Fognini is boom or bust for me in this quarter. Granollers is a tough first match and the Spaniard and Italian have split four career meetings on clay. With everyone talking about the prospects of a Nadal-Fognini third round match, it would be #FabMode at its best for him to lose before then. Both Kohlschreiber and Sousa should also be on high alert in round one. Almagro has every possibility to beat Kohlschreiber and Damir Dzumhur owns two wins over Joao Sousa in their careers. Both have come on clay. Form favors Sousa, but he’s lost two of the four first rounders he has played at Roland Garros in his career.

Draw Breakdown
Up top, Nadal has two problematic spots before he can think of a deep run. Despite overall shite form, Fabio Fognini could be waiting in round three for Rafa or he could be done in round one against Marcel Granollers. The Pig thinks Rafa might be sending Granny a fruit basket for that to happen. Fognini has beaten Rafa three times in their last six meetings, but Nadal has won the last two.

The more problematic match could be a potential fourth round showdown with Dominic Thiem. Thiem’s biggest concern to get to that spot might be Kevin Anderson. Even though Anderson is still seeking his best form upon returning from multiple injuries, he may have a mental edge on the Austrian. Anderson has beaten him all four times they have played, but this would be the first on Thiem’s preferred clay surface. Anderson might do well to be there at all with a hot Alexander Zverev his potential second round foe. Zverev is in the Nice final this weekend and could pose a serious threat if he’s not suffering from burn out.

Nadal and Thiem have split two matches on clay this year, with Rafa winning the most recent in Monte Carlo in straight sets. The best of five format should benefit Rafa’s willingness to grind if that is the match-up. Thiem is one of the biggest movers and shakers on tour this season, but he’s still very green on experience with just four matches at Roland Garros. That should play into Nadal’s hands, but Thiem is likely to be a very tough out regardless.

The other half of the draw looks best for Goffin heading in, but the Belgian must overcome a lack of success at the French Open. He made the fourth round in 2012, but has also been dismissed twice in the opening round. Last year, he made the third round before being tossed aside by Jeremy Chardy. The third round looks like the biggest trouble spot for Goffin with Kohlschreiber or Almagro possible.

Tsonga is the X-factor to me. A healthy Tsonga has a legit shot to make another nice run in Paris. He opens with Jan-Lennard Struff and then sees Marcos Baghdatis or Gilles Muller. Very winnable. Sousa is the seeded player he could meet in round three with round four perhaps throwing Goffin, Kohlschreiber or Almagro his way. Almagro beat Jo early in the year on clay in Buenos Aires. He’ll surely be rooting for Kohlschreiber to be there instead as the German is 0-9 against this year’s 6th seed.

Tsonga has been past the third round each year since 2012 and has made two semifinals and a quarterfinal in that span. It’s easy to see that he enjoys the spotlight in his home Slam. Health is the biggest question and one that should be answered early. A Tsonga-Goffin fourth round clash would be very good with both having beaten the other once on clay in two meetings.

Two names to watch here among the unseeded players: Alexander Zverev and Jiri Vesely. Both immensely talented on clay and capable of beating some of these lower seeds. Don’t be surprised if one of them sticks around until the third round or farther.

Predictions
Nadal wins the quarter, but with plenty of trouble. Thiem makes his best run to-date at this tournament to the fourth round and flirts with beating Rafa. A Nadal-Fognini match never happens. An unseeded player surprises and makes the fourth round.

2016 French Open Third Quarter Preview: Stan Wawrinka (3)

Seeded Players (French Open Record)
3. Stan Wawrinka (27-10)
8. Milos Raonic (8-4)
10. Marin Cilic (16-9)
16. Gilles Simon (16-10)
22. Viktor Troicki (11-7)
23. Jack Sock (6-3)
29. Lucas Pouille (1-3)
30. Jeremy Chardy (14-9)

Seed Report
This part of the draw has a lot of possibilities. You start with the defending champion Wawrinka, who comes to Paris in better form after winning the title match in Geneva. That was a tournament the Stanimal might not even have expected to effort in, but he needed the positive results for his confidence. Wawrinka had been consistent, but not great at Roland Garros until last year. Prior to his championship run, the Swiss had been a fourth round out three of the five previous years. That was sprinkled with a quarterfinal run and a first round exit in 2014. His run in Geneva this past week should energize him some to start.

Raonic is an intriguing option here, but stuck in the tougher half of the quarter. He made the quarterfinals at Roland Garros in 2015. He comes to Paris with decent clay form, beating those you expect and losing to those you expect him to lose to on this surface. Without the likes of an elite player in his half, Raonic may have a shot to repeat his 2015 run. He simply needs his body to hold up.

Cilic, like Wawrinka, really needed what he found in Geneva this week. The Croat who had been in and out with injury, made the final where he lost to Stan Wawrinka on Saturday. He’s made the fourth round three times at this tournament, including last year. It looks about 50-50 for him to get there this year with Jack Sock potentially in his path to that round.

Gilles Simon has made the fourth round every other year since 2011. This year would be one of the “others” and his path is full of land mines. Diego Schwartzman possibly (R2) and either Viktor Troicki or Grigor Dimitrov (R3). His style makes him tough to beat though and he matches up decently with those guys.

The bottom three seeds in this quarter are the ones I think you should really monitor. Sock, Pouille and Chardy all have big game and a chance to make big waves. Pouille has been especially hot during the Euro clay swing this season with his first ATP final in Bucharest and a semifinal showing in Rome. Sock has made solid progression each year in Paris with the fourth round being his best finish in 2015. Chardy made the fourth round in 2015 for the second time in his career. He is an enigma as far as consistency though.

Upset Alert
Viktor Troicki is an easy choice in this quarter due to his difficult match-up against Grigor Dimitrov. The two have split a pair of hard court meetings this season and have never met on clay. Neither is in great form, so it is a bit of a toss-up. Troicki’s saving grace could be Dimitrov’s putrid French Open record (3-5). Dead Baby Fed – trying that out, what do you think – has lost in the opening round three of five times. Jeremy Chardy will also have a difficult opener against veteran Leonardo Mayer. Chardy leads the head-to-head 2-1, but they have not met since August 2015 and not on clay since 2012. Expect an extremely competitive match in that one.

Draw Breakdown
Wawrinka’s win on Saturday to claim the Geneva title should do well for his sagging confidence. A rematch against Lukas Rosol to open, should also help him to get away to a good start as he’s beaten the Czech four times. That includes a three setter this past week. Their matches are usually competitive. Chardy is the only seed that the Swiss would have to face before the fourth round. Wawrinka has won all four previous meetings, but the sets have been tight. Wawrinka got a nice draw here and should have every opportunity to be in position to make the quarterfinals depending on how he handles the pressure.

A likely fourth round match for Wawrinka could come against 16th seed Gilles Simon or 22nd seed Viktor Troicki. Simon will need to be good early though as a second round encounter against either Diego Schwartzman or Guido Pella will be tough. Pella has beaten his countryman twice, but has never done anything at Roland Garros. Schwartzman could be the tougher out for Simon.

In the top half where Milos Raonic is the lead seed, the Canadian could run into the French buzzsaw in round three. That is where he is seeded to battle Lucas Pouille. Both Raonic and Pouille have workable draws to get to that point. The winner there could be headed to a fourth round showdown against either 10th seed Marin Cilic or 23rd seed Jack Sock. Cilic gained some form in Geneva this week, but his second round match figures to be harsh. He gets either Albert Ramos-Vinolas or Horacio Zeballos. Cilic is 5-1 combined against those two, but both have played him tight even in the losses. Sock has an easier road with Robin Haase first-up and then either Dustin Brown or or Dudi Sela.

There looks to be a lot of room for upheaval in this top half of the quarter, but it looks that it will fall to one of the seeds. Raonic without a doubt has everything needed to get through this part of the draw. His problem has been securing wins against the top tier players on dirt, which he would not face early here. Cilic has been consistent at the French Open, but never scored a big win in the latter portion of the tournament. That could leave Jack Sock with a chance to really cement himself as the best on clay from the US right now with another solid run. That would suit Raonic just fine. The 8th seed holds a 7-1 record against Sock.

Predictions
If Raonic’s body holds up, he should be in position for a breakthrough moment in Paris. Despite Wawrinka’s run in Geneva, he’s just been too inconsistent this year to trust and The Pig thinks the pressure of being the defending champion will play on him here. Raonic has already proven he can beat the Swiss on the big stage, with the five set thriller over Wawrinka at the Australian Open. Jack Sock makes the fourth round again and looks to have Milos on the ropes at times for a spot in the quarterfinals. Grigor Dimitrov continues his free fall into irrelevancy.

2016 French Open Fourth Quarter Preview: Andy Murray (2)

Seeded Players (French Open Record)
2. Andy Murray (28-8)
5. Kei Nishikori (8-5)
9. Richard Gasquet (18-12)
15. John Isner (9-7) R4 2014
17. Nick Kyrgios (2-3) R3 2015
19. Benoit Paire (6-6) never passed R3
27. Ivo Karlovic (4-10) 5/6 trips R1 exit
33. Steve Johnson (3-3) R3 last year

Seed Report
Andy Murray heads into Roland Garros this year with plenty of momentum, winning two of the three Euro Masters events on clay this spring. Murray quietly has made the semifinals at the French Open in three of the last four years, but expectation may be a shade higher this year due to his win over Novak Djokovic last week. Nishikori poses a large threat in spite of his pedestrian record at Roland Garros. He showed that last year with a quarterfinal run, where he ultimately lost to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in five. He also pushed Djokovic in Rome last week which should do wonders for his confidence.

Gasquet has been consistent in Paris like he has in many Slams, but like the others, the fourth round seems to be his ceiling more often than not. He’s made that point in four of the last five years at Roland Garros. Isner and Kyrgios are the power arms in this quarter at #15 and #17. Isner’s best finish here is the fourth round, which he has done once in 2014. Kyrgios pushed to the third round last year and might expect more this year with improved play on clay. The Aussie went 7-3 on clay in the build-up swing to Paris with wins over Milos Raonic and Stan Wawrinka.

Benoit Paire is Benoit Paire. If he could swap out his forehand for a second backhand, maybe he’d be a more consistent threat. Instead, he often winds up living up to the moniker “Don’t Care Paire.” After a nice run to start the Euro clay swing, Paire cooled and lost his first match in both Madrid and Nice. The pathetic 6-3, 6-0 loss to Adrian Mannarino in NIce highlighted the “Don’t Care Paire” attitude. He has never made it pas round three at the French Open.

Karlovic and Johnson round out the seeds in this quarter. Johnson slipped in as a seed due to the withdraw of Roger Federer. Johnson did make the third round in 2015. Karlovic has had a bad season at just 2-9. He lost his first six matches of the season and his age (37) seems to be catching up to him at this point. This is by far his least favorite surface. More on Ivo below.

Upset Alert
Enter Ivo. Karlovic has lost his first match in Paris five of his last six trips to Paris, so he was on upset alert as soon as he lost last year. He faces Albert Montanes in round one. The Spaniard has some game on clay, but hasn’t won at the French Open since 2013. Still, with Karlovic’s poor track record, he’s got to feel good about pulling an upset. Steve Johnson too should be on high alert as he draws a tough assignment with Fernando Verdasco to open. The lefty from Spain has won both of their previous meetings. They both came on clay and both came in Houston, where conditions should have helped Johnson more than he’ll find in Paris.

I’ll put Paire on this list just because he is Benoit Paire. He faces qualifier Radu Albot, who is a solid Challenger-level player. Paire had issues dispatching qualifier Gustao Elias in round one last year, so perhaps history repeats itself.

Draw Breakdown
Murray’s half looks very beneficial to the Scot through the first four rounds. The highest seed he could face is John Isner. Paire and Karlovic are also in his half, but wouldn’t seem to pose much threat. Murray really should have a pretty sweet ride into the quarterfinals. It will be in his best interest to take care of business and conserve energy for the latter rounds, where he’ll face some stiff tests if he wants to advance far.

Take a long look at the winner of the Nicolaz Basilashvili-Kyle Edmund first rounder. The winner likely gets John Isner in round two. Basilashvili is on a hot streak with a Challenger title on clay prior to his run through qualifying at Roland Garros. Edmund also won a Challenger title on clay and was pressing Alexander Zverev in Nice before he rolled an ankle. He should be fine and that makes this a high quality first round match, I think. The winner has plenty enough to trouble Isner in round two.

In Nishikori’s half of the quarter, the #5 seed should be okay until the third round. His opener comes against Simone Bolelli and then likely Andrey Kuznetsov who takes on Benjamin Becker in round one. The third round is seeded to see Nishikori go against Johnson, but that spot could very well be Verdasco or maybe a crafty vet like Ivan Dodig.

The other part of that half of the quarter looks highly competitive with Gasquet and Kyrgios as the seeds. Gasquet faces Thomaz Bellucci in his opener. Kyrgios takes on feisty Italian Marco Cecchinato. Based on what we’ve seen from both, it would be disappointing not to get a Gasquet-Kyrgios third round clash. The Frenchman owns a 4-2 lead in their head-to-head series with two wins coming on clay. Kyrgios did pummel Gasquet 6-0, 6-4 on an indoor hard court in Marseille in their only meeting this season.

Nishikori probably won’t mid seeing Gasquet a third time this season. The 5th seed has overturned a lopsided head-to-head record against the 9th seed in 2016. After losing the first six meetings, Nishikori beat Gasquet both in Madrid and Rome in straight sets. It now appears that Nishikori has Gasquet’s number. Nishikori is 3-0 against Kyrgios, but it was a struggle when they met in Madrid with Nishikori winning 6-7 (6), 7-6 (1), 6-3.

All eyes are on a potential Murray-Nishikori quarterfinal in this quarter. The only thing standing in the way would appear to be in Nishikori’s half, where a fourth round match against Gasquet or Kyrgios will test his mettle.

Predictions
The Murray-Nishikori quarterfinal doesn’t disappoint. Nishikori vanquishes his demons against Murray, who owns a 6-1 record against the 5th seed. Gasquet-Kyrgios proves to be the second best match in this quarter. Benoit Paire loses to an unseeded player. Jordan Thompson becomes a name you know.