Everything has a price - I would take Gauff being behind 6-0, 5-0, 40-0 - if you gave me a price that I considered higher than it should ! So you can’t say following someone or going against someone contains value just on that premise ! Unless you state a price - that statement means nothing - not even if they are incorrect 99% of the time
not in the slightest? thatss wild.....sure, relatively something may be +15000, +10000, does not mean it is worth the stab.
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Quote Originally Posted by Calde13:
Everything has a price - I would take Gauff being behind 6-0, 5-0, 40-0 - if you gave me a price that I considered higher than it should ! So you can’t say following someone or going against someone contains value just on that premise ! Unless you state a price - that statement means nothing - not even if they are incorrect 99% of the time
not in the slightest? thatss wild.....sure, relatively something may be +15000, +10000, does not mean it is worth the stab.
Quote Originally Posted by Calde13: Everything has a price - I would take Gauff being behind 6-0, 5-0, 40-0 - if you gave me a price that I considered higher than it should ! So you can’t say following someone or going against someone contains value just on that premise ! Unless you state a price - that statement means nothing - not even if they are incorrect 99% of the time not in the slightest? thatss wild.....sure, relatively something may be +15000, +10000, does not mean it is worth the stab.
If something happens 1 times out of a million - and pays you 2 million every time you hit etc. of course it is value (here she just needed to win 3 points in a row and then it is 40/40 and everything can happen - she could also get injuried etc. - I have seen some wild shit !) - then you just need a big enough bankroll to ride the variance out ! I am doing this professionally (it is my job to bet other people’s money - if you do that - you only bet with value) - I assume you for the most part bet for fun - then you can bet however you want - and it would make sense if you didn’t bet like me - that is the beauty of doing it for fun
Don't mention the frogs - we don't want to scare the toddler - we want him to sleep
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Quote Originally Posted by vaas187:
Quote Originally Posted by Calde13: Everything has a price - I would take Gauff being behind 6-0, 5-0, 40-0 - if you gave me a price that I considered higher than it should ! So you can’t say following someone or going against someone contains value just on that premise ! Unless you state a price - that statement means nothing - not even if they are incorrect 99% of the time not in the slightest? thatss wild.....sure, relatively something may be +15000, +10000, does not mean it is worth the stab.
If something happens 1 times out of a million - and pays you 2 million every time you hit etc. of course it is value (here she just needed to win 3 points in a row and then it is 40/40 and everything can happen - she could also get injuried etc. - I have seen some wild shit !) - then you just need a big enough bankroll to ride the variance out ! I am doing this professionally (it is my job to bet other people’s money - if you do that - you only bet with value) - I assume you for the most part bet for fun - then you can bet however you want - and it would make sense if you didn’t bet like me - that is the beauty of doing it for fun
The only thing I agree with - that is kind of what you also is saying - is that the more unlikely an event is to happen - the harder it is to price correctly - so you need a bigger margin between your “fair price” and the bookmakers price
Don't mention the frogs - we don't want to scare the toddler - we want him to sleep
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The only thing I agree with - that is kind of what you also is saying - is that the more unlikely an event is to happen - the harder it is to price correctly - so you need a bigger margin between your “fair price” and the bookmakers price
Quote Originally Posted by vaas187: Quote Originally Posted by Calde13: Everything has a price - I would take Gauff being behind 6-0, 5-0, 40-0 - if you gave me a price that I considered higher than it should ! So you can’t say following someone or going against someone contains value just on that premise ! Unless you state a price - that statement means nothing - not even if they are incorrect 99% of the time not in the slightest? thatss wild.....sure, relatively something may be +15000, +10000, does not mean it is worth the stab. If something happens 1 times out of a million - and pays you 2 million every time you hit etc. of course it is value (here she just needed to win 3 points in a row and then it is 40/40 and everything can happen - she could also get injuried etc. - I have seen some wild shit !) - then you just need a big enough bankroll to ride the variance out ! I am doing this professionally (it is my job to bet other people’s money - if you do that - you only bet with value) - I assume you for the most part bet for fun - then you can bet however you want - and it would make sense if you didn’t bet like me - that is the beauty of doing it for fun
i agree partly because i exclusively play + odds. 250+ usually...hits often enough that yes in theory i agree...but it is about picking spots. womens tennis i suppose is a better spot than any. these chicks have no clue what their doing half the time....ive seen 4-1 lose to 4-6 more than once lol
1
Quote Originally Posted by Calde13:
Quote Originally Posted by vaas187: Quote Originally Posted by Calde13: Everything has a price - I would take Gauff being behind 6-0, 5-0, 40-0 - if you gave me a price that I considered higher than it should ! So you can’t say following someone or going against someone contains value just on that premise ! Unless you state a price - that statement means nothing - not even if they are incorrect 99% of the time not in the slightest? thatss wild.....sure, relatively something may be +15000, +10000, does not mean it is worth the stab. If something happens 1 times out of a million - and pays you 2 million every time you hit etc. of course it is value (here she just needed to win 3 points in a row and then it is 40/40 and everything can happen - she could also get injuried etc. - I have seen some wild shit !) - then you just need a big enough bankroll to ride the variance out ! I am doing this professionally (it is my job to bet other people’s money - if you do that - you only bet with value) - I assume you for the most part bet for fun - then you can bet however you want - and it would make sense if you didn’t bet like me - that is the beauty of doing it for fun
i agree partly because i exclusively play + odds. 250+ usually...hits often enough that yes in theory i agree...but it is about picking spots. womens tennis i suppose is a better spot than any. these chicks have no clue what their doing half the time....ive seen 4-1 lose to 4-6 more than once lol
Yes, I agree women's tennis is the best spot for things like this. Like say you make a live bet +5000. To me it is MUCH more likely to hit something like this in WTA than hitting it in football, basketball, etc. The one other major sport that might be similar would be baseball since, like tennis, there is no running clock and a team can theoretically come back from any deficit at any time since the only constraint is the number of outs remaining.
But what makes tennis unique is being an individual sport you can sometimes watch a collapse happen in real time and make bets that on paper look like extremely long shot bets but the reality of what you're watching tells you it is actually much more probable.
Also, in my experience it seems to be best to kind of stagger bets when you're swinging for the fences like this. Like for instance let's say a girl is up 5-1 in the third set and serving for the match and her opponent is +5000. The girl serving completely collapses but it is not uncommon to see the same girl regain her composure for just long enough to get over the line.
So like the underdog breaks to make it 2-5, then holds, then breaks again to make it 4-5. At that point you're back on serve and feeling great about your +5000 bet. Then she gets broken next game and match is over. That's where it's helpful to have other bets in place too such as set 3 over 8.5 & 9.5 or game spreads. I've just been in "close but no cigar" situations like this too many times to not have a little extra insurance there. It's also not uncommon at all for similar situations in closer matches like a girl serving at 5-3, getting nervy and is broken, but then breaks right back to end the match.
But I only make plays like this when I'm watching the match and I actually feel like there's a significant edge. Those edges definitely appear in WTA from time to time.
1
@vaas187
Yes, I agree women's tennis is the best spot for things like this. Like say you make a live bet +5000. To me it is MUCH more likely to hit something like this in WTA than hitting it in football, basketball, etc. The one other major sport that might be similar would be baseball since, like tennis, there is no running clock and a team can theoretically come back from any deficit at any time since the only constraint is the number of outs remaining.
But what makes tennis unique is being an individual sport you can sometimes watch a collapse happen in real time and make bets that on paper look like extremely long shot bets but the reality of what you're watching tells you it is actually much more probable.
Also, in my experience it seems to be best to kind of stagger bets when you're swinging for the fences like this. Like for instance let's say a girl is up 5-1 in the third set and serving for the match and her opponent is +5000. The girl serving completely collapses but it is not uncommon to see the same girl regain her composure for just long enough to get over the line.
So like the underdog breaks to make it 2-5, then holds, then breaks again to make it 4-5. At that point you're back on serve and feeling great about your +5000 bet. Then she gets broken next game and match is over. That's where it's helpful to have other bets in place too such as set 3 over 8.5 & 9.5 or game spreads. I've just been in "close but no cigar" situations like this too many times to not have a little extra insurance there. It's also not uncommon at all for similar situations in closer matches like a girl serving at 5-3, getting nervy and is broken, but then breaks right back to end the match.
But I only make plays like this when I'm watching the match and I actually feel like there's a significant edge. Those edges definitely appear in WTA from time to time.
@vaas187 Yes, I agree women's tennis is the best spot for things like this. Like say you make a live bet +5000. To me it is MUCH more likely to hit something like this in WTA than hitting it in football, basketball, etc. The one other major sport that might be similar would be baseball since, like tennis, there is no running clock and a team can theoretically come back from any deficit at any time since the only constraint is the number of outs remaining. But what makes tennis unique is being an individual sport you can sometimes watch a collapse happen in real time and make bets that on paper look like extremely long shot bets but the reality of what you're watching tells you it is actually much more probable. Also, in my experience it seems to be best to kind of stagger bets when you're swinging for the fences like this. Like for instance let's say a girl is up 5-1 in the third set and serving for the match and her opponent is +5000. The girl serving completely collapses but it is not uncommon to see the same girl regain her composure for just long enough to get over the line. So like the underdog breaks to make it 2-5, then holds, then breaks again to make it 4-5. At that point you're back on serve and feeling great about your +5000 bet. Then she gets broken next game and match is over. That's where it's helpful to have other bets in place too such as set 3 over 8.5 & 9.5 or game spreads. I've just been in "close but no cigar" situations like this too many times to not have a little extra insurance there. It's also not uncommon at all for similar situations in closer matches like a girl serving at 5-3, getting nervy and is broken, but then breaks right back to end the match. But I only make plays like this when I'm watching the match and I actually feel like there's a significant edge. Those edges definitely appear in WTA from time to time.
This !!
"I Bleed Orange and Blue..."
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Quote Originally Posted by bringit:
@vaas187 Yes, I agree women's tennis is the best spot for things like this. Like say you make a live bet +5000. To me it is MUCH more likely to hit something like this in WTA than hitting it in football, basketball, etc. The one other major sport that might be similar would be baseball since, like tennis, there is no running clock and a team can theoretically come back from any deficit at any time since the only constraint is the number of outs remaining. But what makes tennis unique is being an individual sport you can sometimes watch a collapse happen in real time and make bets that on paper look like extremely long shot bets but the reality of what you're watching tells you it is actually much more probable. Also, in my experience it seems to be best to kind of stagger bets when you're swinging for the fences like this. Like for instance let's say a girl is up 5-1 in the third set and serving for the match and her opponent is +5000. The girl serving completely collapses but it is not uncommon to see the same girl regain her composure for just long enough to get over the line. So like the underdog breaks to make it 2-5, then holds, then breaks again to make it 4-5. At that point you're back on serve and feeling great about your +5000 bet. Then she gets broken next game and match is over. That's where it's helpful to have other bets in place too such as set 3 over 8.5 & 9.5 or game spreads. I've just been in "close but no cigar" situations like this too many times to not have a little extra insurance there. It's also not uncommon at all for similar situations in closer matches like a girl serving at 5-3, getting nervy and is broken, but then breaks right back to end the match. But I only make plays like this when I'm watching the match and I actually feel like there's a significant edge. Those edges definitely appear in WTA from time to time.
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