Hi everyone in the forum, I'd like to know if anyone knows about z score (tool statisticians use to measure the reliability of data) and how to apply it to sports system in order to make a much higher profit from it.
thanks in advanced,
Adal
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Hi everyone in the forum, I'd like to know if anyone knows about z score (tool statisticians use to measure the reliability of data) and how to apply it to sports system in order to make a much higher profit from it.
Zscores are simply just saying how many standard deviations away from the mean a certain observation is
There's a real notation but in simple words the formula is..
(Raw score - mean of all scores) / Standard deviation
I've never personally used Zscores in sports betting so I couldn't tell you how to apply it to systems. Although I'm working on a system related to standard deviation which of course as you know, is related to Zscores. You can find my thread for that a bit lower.
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Zscores are simply just saying how many standard deviations away from the mean a certain observation is
There's a real notation but in simple words the formula is..
(Raw score - mean of all scores) / Standard deviation
I've never personally used Zscores in sports betting so I couldn't tell you how to apply it to systems. Although I'm working on a system related to standard deviation which of course as you know, is related to Zscores. You can find my thread for that a bit lower.
Thanks Tp i for the information but when you have a system that is 34-16 how you calc the standard deviation(SD) and how apply the z score to investigate the noise of the data?
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Thanks Tp i for the information but when you have a system that is 34-16 how you calc the standard deviation(SD) and how apply the z score to investigate the noise of the data?
Z scores are not a measure of reliability. Theu are mostly used to find where a stat falls on a normal bell curve. They can be used to put different series on the same scale for comparison.
An example would be football if you have a system that will forecast the margin of victory. Generally, one would take your estimate of MOV, subtract the point spread, and see if you have a bet. A problem develops because there are four variables--1) your estimate, 2)the betting line,3) the overlay, and 4)the actual MOV-- which all have different means and different standard deviations. If you have history of a few years of each series, you can compare z scores instead of raw numbers. Give it a try and you will find that this method will be a little better than the raw numbers. You may also find that you may only want to bet the overlays that are 1 or 2 STD's above or below average.
A spread sheet like excel should do most of the math.
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Z scores are not a measure of reliability. Theu are mostly used to find where a stat falls on a normal bell curve. They can be used to put different series on the same scale for comparison.
An example would be football if you have a system that will forecast the margin of victory. Generally, one would take your estimate of MOV, subtract the point spread, and see if you have a bet. A problem develops because there are four variables--1) your estimate, 2)the betting line,3) the overlay, and 4)the actual MOV-- which all have different means and different standard deviations. If you have history of a few years of each series, you can compare z scores instead of raw numbers. Give it a try and you will find that this method will be a little better than the raw numbers. You may also find that you may only want to bet the overlays that are 1 or 2 STD's above or below average.
A spread sheet like excel should do most of the math.
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