Underdog System

Question

Let&#x27;s try this one....Take the top 3 teams with the highest win %, and chase them on the RL.  If the team is an underdog for the day, then play the ML on that day.Also, take the bottom 2 teams of the league, and fade them on the RL.Re-calculate your teams at the beginning of each week.So far, since May 1st the results would be..48 wins, 37 losses. (48-0 using the chase method)  - Betting to win 1% of your bankroll, would show a ROI of 45.77% in 20 days!May 21st...Pittsburgh (&#x2B;105) ML   Game 1Milwaukee (&#x2B;122) ML  Game 1Kansas City (&#x2B;100) RL  Game 1Toronto (&#x2B;155) ML       Game 1

JoeMoney1440 · Answer

Let&#x27;s try this one....Take the top 3 teams with the highest win %, and chase them on the RL.  If the team is an underdog for the day, then play the ML on that day.Also, take the bottom 2 teams of the league, and fade them on the RL.Re-calculate your teams at the beginning of each week.So far, since May 1st the results would be..48 wins, 37 losses. (48-0 using the chase method)  - Betting to win 1% of your bankroll, would show a ROI of 45.77% in 20 days!May 21st...Pittsburgh (&#x2B;105) ML   Game 1Milwaukee (&#x2B;122) ML  Game 1Kansas City (&#x2B;100) RL  Game 1Toronto (&#x2B;155) ML       Game 1

MONEYshotS · Answer

Joe, this is VERY interesting.  Is the chase a double up chase?  What is the longest chase so far?

cisco · Answer

you always play for &#x2B; money correct?&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;So your 37 losses would be for even money?

cisco · Answer

easy to see the standings. https://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/standings

MONEYshotS · Answer

https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/stats/totals-report/ That is a link to the totals report, once you are there you can click on a team and see very quickly the final score for all games played in '09.

Sofar I just glanced at Toronto. Now they may not have been in 1st place the entire year but the point I wanted to know was how many games after a RL loser until the next one. What I saw was that the max was 4. Today vs. the RedSox is another one that if they lose, it cause the chase to go to 5 for the 1st time. If I get time I will look at a few others.

I am trying to figure out the best way to bet this. I don't think I will double up on the chase however a mild progression should work fine because there are times that the wins come very close together.

JoeMoney1440 · Answer

Yeah cisco, you play on &#x2B; money basically every time.  It&#x27;s not a double up... you adjust your risk amount according to the line you get.  I&#x27;ll be able to explain more later.

JoeMoney1440 · Answer

What I do, is start out to bet to win a certain amount. Let's say my game 1 is at +140. Let's say I want to win $100... so my wager would be $71.43 to win $100. If I lose, then I go to the next game.
Let's say game 2 will be at +150 odds. So I just add together my losses and divide by the + line. So in game 2 my wager would be $114.28 to win $173.43. This way I recoup my losses, and still manage to keep my risk low. The deepest chase so far is game 5.

Also well worth noting, that a few teams a play came up forcing us to take a (-) line. This happens when both teams are (-) and the RL is at +1½ on our side. To my knowledge this has happened 7 times this month and the record is at 7-0.

May 22nd...

LA Dodgers (+165) RL    Game 1
Milwaukee (+106) ML     Game 1
Toronto (-105) RL           Game 2
Cincinnati (+160) RL       Game 2 *Fading Cleveland
Baltimore (+110) ML       Game 2 *Fading Washington

Records since beginning to post:
- Flat wagering (1-3) 33% -.80 units.
- Chase system (1-0) + 1.00 unit. 3 Pending.

JoeMoney1440 · Answer

Correction..... (1-3) 33% -1.60 units.

MONEYshotS · Answer

Joe, with Bal and Cincy winning you your 100 do you continue to play against them on sat. for the same amount?

JoeMoney1440 · Answer

No... We will fade them to WIN 1 unit tomorrow.  After the team covers for us, we drop our amount back down to win 1 unit...Still cheering for the Dodgers tonight!

bryan11 · Answer

joe money. I like this system. with my book, I am able to change the runline to -2.5 and get crazy odds like +370... what do you think about maybe chasing up to 8 - 10 times with the better odds? would probably be about the same risk as chasing 5 times at the 1.5 runline but how often would the team win by 2 rather than 3...?

JoeMoney1440 · Answer

That is pretty crazy... Its worth a shot... my guess is you'd probably make the same amount of money. You could win 2 or 3 times, but the time you are probably going to win once. And 2 or 3 wins will be more profit than just 1... even though it may seem like a lot from the chase.

Example... If I were to win 3 game 1's @ $100.. I'd be up $300.
- You could be down (0-3) and win your 4th game of your chase for some crazy +350.. but just be up $100, plus your losses. So I'd be well ahead of you.

The Risk formula should look like this...

Amount to win / (losses + odds).
- If you have a (-) line... then you should multiply instead of divide.

On the last note... Bryan perhaps.... follow 1 team or so, and see how that turns out. Not sure if you want to lay less money and win less often... or lay a little more money, more less often, but have a bigger profit.

JoeMoney1440 · Answer

Anyways plays for today are...Baltimore (&#x2B;130) RL  Game 1  *Fading WashingtonCincinnati (-108) ML  Game 1  *Fading ClevelandLA Dodgers (&#x2B;170) RL  Game 2Milwaukee (&#x2B;150) RL  Game 2Toronto (&#x2B;126) ML  Game 3Current Record is...(3-6)  33% (-2.84 units)  *Flat Betting.(3-0)  &#x2B;3.00 units 3 Pending.  *Chasing.

manifesto · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by bryan11] joe money.  I like this system.  with my book, I am able to change the runline to -2.5 and get crazy odds like &#x2B;370... what do you think about maybe chasing up to 8 - 10 times with the better odds?  would probably be about the same risk as chasing 5 times at the 1.5 runline  but how often would the team win by 2 rather than 3...?  &#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA;bryan, are you using a local or online?  If online, which site?

JoeMoney1440 · Answer

Looks as if his books says Pinnacle... but I believe even Bookmaker offers this under the Alternative Lines section.

jv040 · Answer

on what day of the week do you determine start of a new week for &#xD;&#xA;this system?  do you think this would work for nba as well.

jv040 · Answer

this system sounds intresting  but I don&#x27;t  quite get it I think I will watch for a while.

jv040 · Answer

are you going  by pct to determine who the top  three teams are.

MONEYshotS · Answer

I have been checking MLB dot com and comparing against his posted plays and it seems to be accurate sofar.

JoeMoney1440 · Answer

Yeah.. I hope to keep it pretty accurate. I just wish Toronto would win already!!

May 24th....

Toronto (+121) ML Game 4
Milwaukee (+110) ML Game 3
LA Dodgers (+115) RL Game 2
Cincinnati (+100) ML Game 2   *Fading Cleveland
Baltimore (+117) ML Game 1    *Fading Washington

Current Records:
(4-10) 28.57% (-2.17 units)   *Flat Wagering
(4-0) +4.00 units. 4 Pending. *Chase Method

jv040 · Answer

I like this system . I think I might try running this on the laubuerche line

bryan11 · Answer

joe money. just did a little bit of back dating... Just looked at Detroit. from may 2 to may 20, they didn't have a win by 2 or more... thats 16 in a row. how many games are you going to be chasing this year in case something like this happens?

Underdog System

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