Underdog System

Let's try this one....

Take the top 3 teams with the highest win %, and chase them on the RL.  If the team is an underdog for the day, then play the ML on that day.
Also, take the bottom 2 teams of the league, and fade them on the RL.

Re-calculate your teams at the beginning of each week.

So far, since May 1st the results would be..
48 wins, 37 losses. (48-0 using the chase method)
  - Betting to win 1% of your bankroll, would show a ROI of 45.77% in 20 days!

May 21st...

Pittsburgh (+105) ML   Game 1
Milwaukee (+122) ML  Game 1
Kansas City (+100) RL  Game 1
Toronto (+155) ML       Game 1

Joe, this is VERY interesting.  Is the chase a double up chase?  What is the longest chase so far?

easy to see the standings. https://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/standings

https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/stats/totals-report/    That is a link to the totals report, once you are there you can click on a team and see very quickly the final score for all games played in '09.

Sofar I just glanced at Toronto.  Now they may not have been in 1st place the entire year but the point I wanted to know was how many games after a RL loser until the next one.  What I saw was that the max was 4.  Today vs. the RedSox is another one that if they lose, it cause the chase to go to 5 for the 1st time.  If I get time I will look at a few others.

I am trying to figure out the best way to bet this.  I don't think I will double up on the chase however a mild progression should work fine because there are times that the wins come very close together.

Yeah cisco, you play on + money basically every time.  It's not a double up... you adjust your risk amount according to the line you get.  I'll be able to explain more later.

What I do, is start out to bet to win a certain amount.  Let's say my game 1 is at +140.  Let's say I want to win $100... so my wager would be $71.43 to win $100.  If I lose, then I go to the next game. 
  Let's say game 2 will be at +150 odds.  So I just add together my losses and divide by the + line. So in game 2 my wager would be $114.28 to win $173.43.  This way I recoup my losses, and still manage to keep my risk low.  The deepest chase so far is game 5.

Also well worth noting, that a few teams a play came up forcing us to take a (-) line.  This happens when both teams are (-) and the RL is at +1½ on our side.  To my knowledge this has happened 7 times this month and the record is at 7-0.

May 22nd...

LA Dodgers (+165) RL    Game 1
Milwaukee (+106) ML     Game 1
Toronto (-105) RL           Game 2
Cincinnati (+160) RL       Game 2  *Fading Cleveland
Baltimore (+110) ML       Game 2  *Fading Washington

Records since beginning to post:
  - Flat wagering (1-3)  33%  -.80 units.
  - Chase system (1-0)  + 1.00 unit.  3 Pending.

Correction..... (1-3) 33% -1.60 units.

Joe, with Bal and Cincy winning you your 100 do you continue to play against them on sat. for the same amount?

No... We will fade them to WIN 1 unit tomorrow.  After the team covers for us, we drop our amount back down to win 1 unit.

..Still cheering for the Dodgers tonight!

joe money.  I like this system.  with my book, I am able to change the runline to -2.5 and get crazy odds like +370... what do you think about maybe chasing up to 8 - 10 times with the better odds?  would probably be about the same risk as chasing 5 times at the 1.5 runline  but how often would the team win by 2 rather than 3...? 

That is pretty crazy... Its worth a shot... my guess is you'd probably make the same amount of money.  You could win 2 or 3 times, but the time you are probably going to win once. And 2 or 3 wins will be more profit than just 1... even though it may seem like a lot from the chase.

Example... If I were to win 3 game 1's @ $100.. I'd be up $300.
 - You could be down (0-3) and win your 4th game of your chase for some crazy +350.. but just be up $100, plus your losses.  So I'd be well ahead of you.

The Risk formula should look like this...

Amount to win / (losses + odds).
 - If you have a (-) line... then you should multiply instead of divide.

On the last note... Bryan perhaps.... follow 1 team or so, and see how that turns out.  Not sure if you want to lay less money and win less often... or lay a little more money, more less often, but have a bigger profit.

Anyways plays for today are...

Baltimore (+130) RL  Game 1  *Fading Washington
Cincinnati (-108) ML  Game 1  *Fading Cleveland
LA Dodgers (+170) RL  Game 2
Milwaukee (+150) RL  Game 2
Toronto (+126) ML  Game 3

Current Record is...
(3-6)  33% (-2.84 units)  *Flat Betting.
(3-0)  +3.00 units 3 Pending.  *Chasing.

bryan, are you using a local or online?  If online, which site?

Looks as if his books says Pinnacle... but I believe even Bookmaker offers this under the Alternative Lines section.

on what day of the week do you determine start of a new week for  this system?  do you think this would work for nba as well.

this system sounds intresting  but I don't  quite get it I think I will watch for a while.

are you going  by pct to determine who the top  three teams are.

I have been checking MLB dot com and comparing against his posted plays and it seems to be accurate sofar.

Yeah.. I hope to keep it pretty accurate.  I just wish Toronto would win already!!

May 24th....

Toronto (+121) ML  Game 4
Milwaukee (+110) ML  Game 3
LA Dodgers (+115) RL  Game 2
Cincinnati (+100)  ML  Game 2   *Fading Cleveland
Baltimore (+117) ML  Game 1    *Fading Washington

Current Records:
(4-10)  28.57%  (-2.17 units)   *Flat Wagering
(4-0)  +4.00 units.  4 Pending.  *Chase Method

I like this system . I think I might try running this on the laubuerche line

joe money.  just did a little bit of back dating... Just looked at Detroit.  from may 2 to may 20, they didn't have a win by 2 or more... thats 16 in a row.  how many games are you going to be chasing this year in case something like this happens?