thoughts on a system my buddy has been doing

Question

Hey guys, i don&#x27;t post too often but enjoy reading the great posts on the site. My buddy has been using this system for a while now and i just wanted to see what you guys thought on it. He seems to be making money with it. Not sure if this has been discussed before i am sure it has but here it is anyway.The basic premise it to bet $1000 on a two team parlay. The first leg of the parlay is always on a very good home favorite min -170. The second leg is to pick another home team that is a favorite but not as large say -130 that the game starts after the first leg is over. Obviously he does this to hedge his bet.Now all or his parlays pay min 1.7 to one. Thus in the later game when he hedges it is always on the dog this getting him juice back on the bet. He bets $1000 on the late game at say &#x2B;135. Anyway the whole thing comes down to having to pick a winner in the first leg. Once you win that game (who was a big fav) you win  money. In this case either up $700 or up $350.What he likes about it is that you really are only betting on the fact that a big favorite needs to win but you are not risking the huge juice to do so. Yes he does not win what he bet but the long term return on his investment seems to be huge. His words " if you take the juice out of play on a big home favorite you will make money in the long run"Please flame away

juicethis · Answer

Hey guys, i don&#x27;t post too often but enjoy reading the great posts on the site. My buddy has been using this system for a while now and i just wanted to see what you guys thought on it. He seems to be making money with it. Not sure if this has been discussed before i am sure it has but here it is anyway.The basic premise it to bet $1000 on a two team parlay. The first leg of the parlay is always on a very good home favorite min -170. The second leg is to pick another home team that is a favorite but not as large say -130 that the game starts after the first leg is over. Obviously he does this to hedge his bet.Now all or his parlays pay min 1.7 to one. Thus in the later game when he hedges it is always on the dog this getting him juice back on the bet. He bets $1000 on the late game at say &#x2B;135. Anyway the whole thing comes down to having to pick a winner in the first leg. Once you win that game (who was a big fav) you win  money. In this case either up $700 or up $350.What he likes about it is that you really are only betting on the fact that a big favorite needs to win but you are not risking the huge juice to do so. Yes he does not win what he bet but the long term return on his investment seems to be huge. His words " if you take the juice out of play on a big home favorite you will make money in the long run"Please flame away

totalguy · Answer

This is about as bad as it gets.  This is the equivalent of betting the -170 favorite straight, then taking those winnings and betting half on either side of the -130 game.  Just brutal.

shenanigans14 · Answer

Holy shit..... I just lost a few IQ points reading this

HutchEmAll · Answer

What he likes about it is that you really are only betting on the fact that a big favorite needs to win but you are not risking the huge juice to do so.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;If the first game loses, you sure as he$$ are risking the juice.  &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Your friend

hoopsstar22 · Answer

Is your buddy DevilFan?

gratefulbets · Answer

It&#x27;s always "a buddy of mine" and generally from a new poster. After 3 years of seeing these types of posts, I can only say:

gratefulbets · Answer

And by the way, when you hedge on a -130 fav, the dog will be &#x2B;120, not &#x2B;135...

stuartFL · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by totalguy] &#xD;&#xA;This is about as bad as it gets.  This is the equivalent of betting the -170 favorite straight, then taking those winnings and betting half on either side of the -130 game.  Just brutal.[/Quote]

gratefulbets · Answer

Here&#x27;s the probability of why you&#x27;re friend doesn&#x27;t exist...&#xD;&#xA;The books are savy at setting the ML&#x27;s so that the average win % matches the ML&#x27;s break even point (This is a fact. I have tracked these for years).. &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Using your example: -1.70 breaks even at 63% , and -1.30 breaks even at 57%. The probabibility of both winning together is .57 x .63 = .36. So 36% of the parlays should win. But let&#x27;s be generous and call it 40%. &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Let&#x27;s assume you played 10 parlays, On 6.3 plays (63%), the first game would win, so you would then bet another unit on the hedge dog. Out of the 6.3 games, only 4 (40%) would win both legs of the parlay.&#xD;&#xA;So if you bet 10 parlays, 4 would win &#x2B;1.70 = &#x2B;6.80. But you also hedged another unit on the dog,: &#x2B;6.80 - 4.00 = &#x2B;2.80 net.&#xD;&#xA;Now on the other 2.3 parlays that you lost, you won the hedge bet of &#x2B;1.20 x 2.3 = &#x2B;2.76. But you also lost the original parlay bets of 2.3 units...&#x2B;2.76 - 2.30 = 0.46 net. &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;So far you netted &#x2B;2.80 and &#x2B;0.46 = &#x2B;3.26 net units. &#xD;&#xA;However, you still have 3.7  games remaining  that were bet on as parlays that did not win the first leg, so they lost 1 unit each.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;&#x2B;3.26 -3.70 = -0.44 units..&#xD;&#xA;or as Vegas likes to say, you.ve been punked!

hoopsstar22 · Answer

The math doesn&#x27;t lie.

juicethis · Answer

thanks guys. It never really made much sense but i really did not know the math to be able to explain it to him. Not that i am sure he will care as he believes in it. But you hear all kinds of crazy ideas so i just wanted to see what the experts or at least guys who know the math thought on it.

thoughts on a system my buddy has been doing

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