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NHL october SYSTEM

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Posted: #1
ok here is something I have been researching until my eyes popped out. First of all I was very sceptical with even trying this but after researching past years I have found a way that seems to be profitable in October in the NHL. Last year the system Net +$565.70 from october 3rd to november 1st. This system does not work well into the season when scoring tightens up and I have noticed a few trends with this system also to watch out for and the profit could be even greater.
 
I am half tempted to not post this because it is very easy for the books to beat this system but any how I figure I could get some good feed back on how to avoid the loosing days that this system has wich would increase another 200 ave. over a the month.
 
Important things to keep in mind.
This is a system with no emotion or feeling put into picking teams.
Wagers must be kept the same value on each bet.
This system will have some big profit days follwed by a couple loss days. This is something that is repeated as I have studdied this over the past years. The books adjust to keep things middled as thats how they profit with the average better.
Yetserday I suspected a loss day and ddin't bet anything the system loss $39.10 units not huge but this helps my profit line if I can avoid 2-3 loss days this month.
The +$565.70 was if you had just played the system each day last year from oct 3rd to nov 1st. Thats what it net not laying off any days.
Its important to get the best lines(of course) u will see. It is wise to have a few books to choose from as small amounts will add up for a nice profit.
 
Here it is plain and simple.
 
For the month of October.
You  play every favorite on the puck line -1.5 Get the best lines usualy average of +200 as you will see will some are +160 and others +240.
 
Also play every dog ml+ get best line and don't wait unless u are sure the line is going to increase in your favor.
 
NOW USING 3 UNITS FOR EACH GAME PUT 2 UNITS ON EVERY PUCK LINE -1.5 AND 1 UNIT ON EVERY DOG +ML (some may be -110)
 
 
 
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Posted: #2
I play something similar.  I take the regulation only puck line -.5 +140 for Chicago tonight, then I'd take the Vancouver money line for the game at +105
 
This way if Chicago wins in regulation time I win
If Chicago wins in OT I lose
 
If Vancouver wins in regulation or in OT I win.
 
The only difference is your favs have to win by 2 in regulation time, if they only win by one you lose.  If it goes to OT or shootout your fav would only be able to win by 1...
It's posted in another thread....
 
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Posted: #3

Here is this years totals that I have wagered. Notice I waited until the 9th when Teams were actually playing at home.

October 9th 4 games I wagered 30 each =$120 2 won on puckline and 1 dog won= $180.80 net $60.80

a trend that is common the big fave detroit -250 or bigger usually doesn't cover the puck line but ends up winning by one I am still trying to figure if I should eliminate these games but as for now I will just play em.

Oct 10th +$60.80

7 games wagered $210.00   3 puck lines won and 3 dogs won total $248.20 net $38.20 ytd net= $99.00

again a -202 fav. won by only one run. Last year however one day there were 4 -220 faves that won on the puck line the same day the problem is the + money averages less in those cases.

Oct11th- 13 games $390 wagered 6 puck lines won and 4 dogs total won $554.70 and net of +$164.70 ytd total = $263.70

OK this was a big day and trends have shown there will be a correction the other way in the next few days. aslo a -230 won on the puck line today. I was going to not wager the following day beacause of the big gain but I did anyway because of only a few games being played the loss could only be up to $90

Oct 12th 3 games $90 wagered. No puck line wins (trend corrected itself) 1 dog won $26.50 net loss -$63.50 ytd= $200.20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
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Posted: #4
srtzee I ve seen that thread and trying to determine how to incorporate it in my loosing days but for now I am going to run this system and finish posting the data.
 
Thanks
 
Oct 13th 7 games wagred $210.00 5 puck line wins and 2 dogs total $343.50 net +$133.50 ytd= $333.70
another big day so rule of thumb would be to not wager next day or cut wagers in half. I will learn.
 
Oct 14th 5 games wagered $150 2 puck line wins and 1 dog total $84.80 net loss -$65.20 ytd = +$268.50
 
Oct. 15th 5 games wagered $150 2 puck line wins and 2 dogs total $169.20 net +$19.20 ytd= $287.70
 
Oct 16th 7 games wagered $210 2 puck line wins and 4 dogs total $217.10 net $7.10 ytd = $294.80
 
Oct 17th 7 games wagered $210 4 puck line wins and 2 dogs total $273.33 net $63.33 ytd net $358.13
 
Now I did not play this day as I felt a loss was coming on so I laid off but heres what would have happened. Oct 18th 13 games wagered $390 4 puck line wins and 5 dogs total $ 350.90 net loss -$39.10 ytd= $319.03
 
 
 
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Posted: #5
This system seems only to bet profitable in October I think its because scoring is up and games are blowouts. Well I will cont. to track and play this on this thread. Tonight with only two games will see what happens.
 
in 07 the heavy faves -200 plus have wone and covered the puck line 23 times.
they only one by one run (the worst for this system) 14 times
so I am not sure if laying of the heavy faves on the puck line is profitable or not esp. because when they loos and the dog wins it helps this system.
 
 
 
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Posted: #6
should say in October and Nov 07 heavy faves -200 or more covered the spread 23 times and 14 times they won the game by only one point.
 
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Posted: #7
Good info innovation.  Have to decide if the 23 covers make up for the 14 times they didn't.  And compare that to the 37 wins if you had played the .5 puck line....
 
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Posted: #8

SRTZEE I will have to look into that. I posted the totals the heavy fave's covered the puck line from oct and november 07 to give a better feel on average even though I might not play this into november as it only netted +158 las year and lost money in 06.

Another thing to facor is how often those dogs beat the heavy faves because this help this system. I think I will find it is better to play the system as is and just try and lay off a day or two after a big winning day.

Oct 19th 2 games wagered $60, 1 puck line won and 1 dog won total $88.50 net +$28.50 ytd = $347.63

(my ytd total is $386.66 I didn't play on the 18th)

 

 

 

 
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Posted: #9

Well it is 10 minutes before last game starts of the 4 games tonight 1 puck line won and 2 dogs so of the $120 wagered totaling 86 so far. I suspect that the last game the fav colorado will win by one and thus today will be a net loss of -$34.00 which is average for what this system does. Remember its over a month of october that this system seems to profit. Today would have been a good day to lay off and we will see one more negative day this week but the system will show profit and turn around after these coupole loss days. I think it might be wise to wait on betting the late games because if u laid off the lte game and only bet the first 3 u would only be a net loss of -$4 for the day. These are things I need to follow. The reverse can be said if no dogs have one or no puck lines have won the late games u could use some strategy. I am just going to post what the system does though according to betting every game.

 

(on a side note I am betting col -125 tto win SU) I will not consider thi into any profit or loss for the system but this is how strong I feel they will win by only one goal.

 
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Posted: #10
oct 20th 4 games wagered 120 1 puck line 2 dogs total 86 net -$34.00 ytd = $313.63
 
Probably have another loss of around -60.00 sometime this week but should have nice profit by weeks end.
 
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Posted: #11
I was just curious, would playing only either PL of +200 or more / Dogs of +200 or more improve the results?  What I mean by this is play the PL at +200 or more and whatever the dog in the game has for a ML and vice versa with the Dog being at +200 or more?
 
Thanks
 
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Posted: #12
PatrickBateman that is an excellent question. I just did a quick check for the first two months last year dogs of +200 or more won 10 out of 42 games or 23.8%. The fav. of -200 or more won by 1 goal 12 times or 28.57% and the fav. of -200 or more won by two or more and beat the puck line 20 times or 47.61% of the time.
 
so on the dogs $10 each would have wagered $420 and returned back $317.40
 
the problem is that the heavy fav's helped on the biggest winning days with this system. I am not sure though that is a an good angle to look into. Thanks you
 
 
 
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Posted: #13
Oct 21st 5 games wagered $150 1 puck line no dogs so a net loss of
 
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Posted: #14
net loss of -$88 and ytd = $225.63
 
Ok biggest loss day so far. Glad to get it out of the way. Dogs will be barking tommorow and this week we should see a couple of big net increase days.
 
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Posted: #15
Thanks for the response, it seems it would be foolish to do what I had suggested.  However, do you have any criteria by which to eliminate games? It seems like there is a large amount of wager you would need to place on some days. Sorry if you have already explained this and I have overlooked it.
 
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Posted: #16
For example, if you are expecting a team to win by 2 or more, wouldn't it seem wise to play games that are expected to go over? The more goals expected to be scored the better the chances the Fave wins by that number...Just a suggestion....I think you are on to something, keep up the excellent work
 
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Posted: #17
Makes sense.....Good work....
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by PatrickBateman:

Thanks for the response, it seems it would be foolish to do what I had suggested.  However, do you have any criteria by which to eliminate games? It seems like there is a large amount of wager you would need to place on some days. Sorry if you have already explained this and I have overlooked it.

I like your input. I feel the same. I noticed that huge fav's of -245 or more didn't cover the spread (win by 2 or more) last year in the first two months ( I don't have time right now to check the whole year). I believe that knowing which games go over would be a great way to narrow the feild down. My issue is then I am just back to capping each game and I get my feelings involved. Other thoughts would be to not play the puck line against a top five defensive team or Play on top five offensive teams.  gotta run back later.

 
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Posted: #19
Another Idea would be to lay off the heavy fav's that have 60% of so called public betting them. It seems that the most popular teams do not play well. I am still thinking of a way to incorporate only playing on dogs and puck lines of +200 or more (patrickbatemans idea) that might be a interesting angle and could possibly be a season long system. By only playing those the number of plays would be reduced and patience would be required but perhaps it might be profitable.
 
Well as for tonight Detriot gave up a goal with lees than 2 minutes left and killed a nice $60 profit but looks like the system broke even
 
Oct 22 5 games wagered $150.00  2 puck line wins and 1 dog total $151.00 Net $1.00 ytd = $226.63
 
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Posted: #20
Hey INNO, thanks for he shout out...would there be anyway we could back track what I suggested?
 
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Posted: #21
Yep, it just takes time I am swamped this week with work and out of town from friday on, so next week I can dig in. I suppose that we can only go back a few years because of the lock out but it would be a good feel for how it might do.
 
 
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Posted: #22
What about just looking over what you have so far this year...Does it improve your outcome?
 
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Posted: #23

Patrick, Well I just briefly looked over this year from the 9th on and If I adapted your Idea of:

Play on every dog ML that is +200 or better (lets say 1 unit)

Then play on every other game using this system (If the puck line -1.5 is +200 or better) Putting 2 units on that and 1 unit on the the for those games

You would have killed the books until Oct. 17th Netting $538.00 using ten dollars as a unit.

But then it ran into 5 straight negative days loosing -222.33

and today would have been a small gain of 21.30 Roughly the Year to date total you would be up +$336.30 not to shabby if somehow you could have laid off the 18th and not played that day you would be up another $112.83

Now with this being said because I couldn't find the puck lines I just Looked for Faves at-145 or less which general will have a +200 puck line.

This look like a great way to cut down the number of games.

 

 

 

 

 
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Posted: #24
Man its late when i post this and my verbage above it just terrible.
 
Above should say play on every game with puck line -1.5 at +200 or better (2 units) and play the dog for that game 1 unit.
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #25
Oct 23rd 7 games wagered $210 3 puck lines won and 3 dogs total $248.5 net+$38.5 ytd = $265.13
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