I'm testing a new system I thought up. Very simple system that I've been breaking down for about an hour, and it seemed to go over .500 in December. It's an NBA Home/Road Bounceback ATS system. I'm mulling over whether to incorporate a chase element into it, but I think I'm going to decide against it. Let's see how it does. Disclaimer: I'm not betting money on this sytem.
Tonight's play: Houston -9. The play is to fade the Knicks.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I'm testing a new system I thought up. Very simple system that I've been breaking down for about an hour, and it seemed to go over .500 in December. It's an NBA Home/Road Bounceback ATS system. I'm mulling over whether to incorporate a chase element into it, but I think I'm going to decide against it. Let's see how it does. Disclaimer: I'm not betting money on this sytem.
Tonight's play: Houston -9. The play is to fade the Knicks.
Fade Seattle , fade Miami , and fade Milwaukee. Which means, take Washington, Memphis, and Charlotte to cover. We'll see what the lines are tomorrow morning.
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Houston covers. System is 1-0.
Tomorrow's plays are:
Fade Seattle , fade Miami , and fade Milwaukee. Which means, take Washington, Memphis, and Charlotte to cover. We'll see what the lines are tomorrow morning.
We're taking: Washington -8.5 , Memphis -6.5 , Charlotte -7.5
I'm going to break games into 2 classes for testing purposes. Last night's Knick's games was class 2. Of today's games, the Seattle game is class 1 and the other games are class 2.
Right now I'm going to call every bet a 2 unit bet, just ot leave open the option of cutting the bet in half for one of the classes.
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Lines are up.
We're taking: Washington -8.5 , Memphis -6.5 , Charlotte -7.5
I'm going to break games into 2 classes for testing purposes. Last night's Knick's games was class 2. Of today's games, the Seattle game is class 1 and the other games are class 2.
Right now I'm going to call every bet a 2 unit bet, just ot leave open the option of cutting the bet in half for one of the classes.
Bounceback Loss ATS at Home: Class1: 1-0 (0-0) + Class2: 0-0 (0-0) = 1-0 (0-0)
Bounceback Loss ATS on Road: Class1: 1-0 (0-0) + Class2: 2-1 (0-1) = 3-1 (0-1)
Tonight's plays ==> two teams that are playing each other: Detroit to win ats on road class 1 ==> Detroit +3 San Anton to win ats at home class 2 ==> San Anton -3.
Hmmm. We have conflicting picks. I'm going to make the rule that the team with the better record home vs. away is our pick. Since San Anton is 17-2 at home and Detroit is 13-6 away, we're going with San Anton. Over the course of time we'll figure out what works best.
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Last night's results:
LA Clips to lose ats at home class 1 ==> Orlando -3.5 ==> won
Dallas to win ats at home class 2 ==> Dallas -2.5 ==> won
One-game chase test, not a core system play:
Orlando to win ats on road class 1 ==> Orlando -3.5 ==> won
This system gotten off and running very quickly. I'm liking the look of things.
Bounceback Loss ATS at Home: Class1: 1-0 (0-0) + Class2: 0-0 (0-0) = 1-0 (0-0)
Bounceback Loss ATS on Road: Class1: 1-0 (0-0) + Class2: 2-1 (0-1) = 3-1 (0-1)
Tonight's plays ==> two teams that are playing each other: Detroit to win ats on road class 1 ==> Detroit +3 San Anton to win ats at home class 2 ==> San Anton -3.
Hmmm. We have conflicting picks. I'm going to make the rule that the team with the better record home vs. away is our pick. Since San Anton is 17-2 at home and Detroit is 13-6 away, we're going with San Anton. Over the course of time we'll figure out what works best.
All right. Obviously, making up a rule in mid-system is ridiculous. Instead of using a made up rule for last night's game, we will independently track the games with conflicting teams.
Bounceback Loss ATS at Home: Class1: 1-0 (0-0) + Class2: 0-0 (0-0) = 1-0 (0-0)
Bounceback Loss ATS on Road: Class1: 1-0 (0-0) + Class2: 2-1 (0-1) = 3-1 (0-1) Conflicting Teams Tracking: Home: 0-1 Favorite: 0-1 Better Home vs Away Record: 0-1
Tonight's Plays:
Charlotte to lose ats on road class 2 ==> Cleveland -7.5
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All right. Obviously, making up a rule in mid-system is ridiculous. Instead of using a made up rule for last night's game, we will independently track the games with conflicting teams.
Bounceback Loss ATS at Home: Class1: 1-0 (0-0) + Class2: 0-0 (0-0) = 1-0 (0-0)
Bounceback Loss ATS on Road: Class1: 1-0 (0-0) + Class2: 2-2 (0-1) = 3-2 (0-1) Conflicting Teams Tracking: Home: 0-1 Favorite: 0-1 Better Home vs Away Record: 0-1
Tonight's plays: Detroit to win ats on road class 1 ==> Detroit -7 Memphis to lose ats on road class 2 ==> Lakers -12.5 Lakers to win ats at home class 1 ==> Lakers -12.5
Pending one-gm chases: Charlotte to lose on 1/18, Phoenix to win on 1/18
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Last night's results Phoenix to win ats at home class 1 ==> Phoenix -13 ==> lost Orlando to win ats on road class 1 ==> Orlando +6.5 ==> won
Current Breakdown: class record (1-gm chase record)
Bounceback Loss ATS at Home: Class1: 1-0 (0-0) + Class2: 0-0 (0-0) = 1-0 (0-0)
Bounceback Loss ATS on Road: Class1: 1-0 (0-0) + Class2: 2-2 (0-1) = 3-2 (0-1) Conflicting Teams Tracking: Home: 0-1 Favorite: 0-1 Better Home vs Away Record: 0-1
Tonight's plays: Detroit to win ats on road class 1 ==> Detroit -7 Memphis to lose ats on road class 2 ==> Lakers -12.5 Lakers to win ats at home class 1 ==> Lakers -12.5
Pending one-gm chases: Charlotte to lose on 1/18, Phoenix to win on 1/18
Last night's results: (Memphis play removed - was a mistake - should not have been listed - coincidentally we played the game anyway because of the Lakers being listed)
Detroit to win ats on road class 1 ==> Detroit -7 ==> lost Lakers to win ats at home class 1 ==> Lakers -12.5 ==> lost
Current Breakdown: class record (1-gm chase record)
Bounceback Loss ATS at Home: Class1: 1-0 (0-0) + Class2: 0-0 (0-0) = 1-0 (0-0)
Bounceback Loss ATS on Road: Class1: 1-0 (0-0) + Class2: 2-2 (0-1) = 3-2 (0-1) Conflicting Teams Tracking: Home: 0-1 Favorite: 0-1 Better Home vs Away Record: 0-1
Tonight's Plays:
Utah to win ats at home class 2: ==> Utah -9.5
Pending one-gm chases: LALakers to win at home on 1/17
Charlotte to lose on road on 1/18
Phoenix to win at home on 1/18
Detroit to win on road on 1/19
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Last night's results: (Memphis play removed - was a mistake - should not have been listed - coincidentally we played the game anyway because of the Lakers being listed)
Detroit to win ats on road class 1 ==> Detroit -7 ==> lost Lakers to win ats at home class 1 ==> Lakers -12.5 ==> lost
Current Breakdown: class record (1-gm chase record)
Class one: Team's su home or away win pct. is .667 or better but worse than .750. Conversely, if we're playing that team to lose, the team's su home or away win pct is .333 or worse but better than .250.
Class two: This is obvious. Team's s su home or away win pct is .750 or better. If we're playing to lose, the team's su win pct is .250 or worse.
Setup to win ats: the team did not cover it's last game, but did cover the game before that.
Setup to lose ats: the team covered it's last game, but did not cover the game before that.
This system seems to always play big favorites. For that reason, we probably won't be very far over or under .500 very often. Right now, we are 8-6 overall, with our one bright spot being 3-0 on class 2 favs to win ats at home.
I'll finish out the month, and maybe rethink the team selection criteria.
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Team selection criteria
Class one: Team's su home or away win pct. is .667 or better but worse than .750. Conversely, if we're playing that team to lose, the team's su home or away win pct is .333 or worse but better than .250.
Class two: This is obvious. Team's s su home or away win pct is .750 or better. If we're playing to lose, the team's su win pct is .250 or worse.
Setup to win ats: the team did not cover it's last game, but did cover the game before that.
Setup to lose ats: the team covered it's last game, but did not cover the game before that.
This system seems to always play big favorites. For that reason, we probably won't be very far over or under .500 very often. Right now, we are 8-6 overall, with our one bright spot being 3-0 on class 2 favs to win ats at home.
I'll finish out the month, and maybe rethink the team selection criteria.
Setup to win ats at home: the selected team covered it's last game at home, but did not cover the home game before that.
Setup to win ats on road: the selected team covered it's last game on the road, but did not cover road game before that.
The same basic rules apply for bounceback losses ats at home and on the road. Just wanted to clarify the setups because I stated them incorrectly in the last post.
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Correction on setups to win and lose ats:
Setup to win ats at home: the selected team covered it's last game at home, but did not cover the home game before that.
Setup to win ats on road: the selected team covered it's last game on the road, but did not cover road game before that.
The same basic rules apply for bounceback losses ats at home and on the road. Just wanted to clarify the setups because I stated them incorrectly in the last post.
After some thinking, I've decided that anyone who puts their mind to it can think up a system that will go a little over .500 and field test it publicly. It's the systems that go well over .500 that are the good ones.
Also, coming up with a system and testing it over a month does no one any good either. I'm going to continue to come up with systems and test them, just not publicly.
So, this will be my last post for now. Good luck everyone.
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After some thinking, I've decided that anyone who puts their mind to it can think up a system that will go a little over .500 and field test it publicly. It's the systems that go well over .500 that are the good ones.
Also, coming up with a system and testing it over a month does no one any good either. I'm going to continue to come up with systems and test them, just not publicly.
So, this will be my last post for now. Good luck everyone.
Finished the month out with this system. Here's what it did
Current Breakdown: Bounceback W ATS @Home: C1: 2-2 (1-1) + C2: 6-4 (3-1) = 8-6 (4-2) Bounceback W ATS @Road: C1: 2-2 (1-1) + C2: 2-0 (0-0) = 4-2 (1-1) Bounceback L ATS @Home: C1: 1-2 (1-1) + C2: 0-3 (1-2) = 1-5 (2-3) Bounceback L ATS @Road: C1: 1-3 (2-0) + C2: 3-6 (4-2) = 4-9 (6-2) * One chase pending in the bounceback L ATS @ Road category.
So, what conclusions do we draw out of this?
1 - Don't play a bad home record team to have a bounceback ATS loss @ home. Bad teams must be streaky enough so that they get their home covers in bunches more than spread out.
2 - Playing a bad road record team to have a bounceback loss ATS away doesn't seem to work until the team has 2 straight losses away ATS, not just one. The system was 6-2 in the 2-loss ATS situation.
3 - Playing elite home and away teams (class 2 here) to get a bounceback W ATS seemed to work pretty well. 6-4 off home ATS losses and Boston went 2-0 for us off 2 away ATS losses. With 4 losses in the home ATS category we tried 4 one-game chases on those teams and went 3-1. So, our composite chase record for home and away in this category is (6 + 2 + 3) = 11 chase wins and one chase loss for 11-1. Pretty damn good for a 2-game chase.
Basically, it comes down to this:
1 - It seems like you can chase bad road teams to lose on the road ATS after they pile up 2 wins on the road ATS.
2 - You can chase elite (class 2 here) home or away teams to win home or away ATS after they lose one home or away ATS.
I'm sure I'll have to revise these conclusions in the future, but for now, that's what this system has come up with.
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Finished the month out with this system. Here's what it did
Current Breakdown: Bounceback W ATS @Home: C1: 2-2 (1-1) + C2: 6-4 (3-1) = 8-6 (4-2) Bounceback W ATS @Road: C1: 2-2 (1-1) + C2: 2-0 (0-0) = 4-2 (1-1) Bounceback L ATS @Home: C1: 1-2 (1-1) + C2: 0-3 (1-2) = 1-5 (2-3) Bounceback L ATS @Road: C1: 1-3 (2-0) + C2: 3-6 (4-2) = 4-9 (6-2) * One chase pending in the bounceback L ATS @ Road category.
So, what conclusions do we draw out of this?
1 - Don't play a bad home record team to have a bounceback ATS loss @ home. Bad teams must be streaky enough so that they get their home covers in bunches more than spread out.
2 - Playing a bad road record team to have a bounceback loss ATS away doesn't seem to work until the team has 2 straight losses away ATS, not just one. The system was 6-2 in the 2-loss ATS situation.
3 - Playing elite home and away teams (class 2 here) to get a bounceback W ATS seemed to work pretty well. 6-4 off home ATS losses and Boston went 2-0 for us off 2 away ATS losses. With 4 losses in the home ATS category we tried 4 one-game chases on those teams and went 3-1. So, our composite chase record for home and away in this category is (6 + 2 + 3) = 11 chase wins and one chase loss for 11-1. Pretty damn good for a 2-game chase.
Basically, it comes down to this:
1 - It seems like you can chase bad road teams to lose on the road ATS after they pile up 2 wins on the road ATS.
2 - You can chase elite (class 2 here) home or away teams to win home or away ATS after they lose one home or away ATS.
I'm sure I'll have to revise these conclusions in the future, but for now, that's what this system has come up with.
"2 - Playing a bad road record team to have a bounceback loss ATS away doesn't seem to work until the team has 2 straight losses away ATS, not just one. The system was 6-2 in the 2-loss ATS situation."
===> Obviously, the bolded words should read "win" not "loss". Sorry about that.
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"2 - Playing a bad road record team to have a bounceback loss ATS away doesn't seem to work until the team has 2 straight losses away ATS, not just one. The system was 6-2 in the 2-loss ATS situation."
===> Obviously, the bolded words should read "win" not "loss". Sorry about that.
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