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#1
I finally realized developing a sucessful NBA system is not going to happen in a few weeks or even months. As I said about my NFL system I worked for years developing it, so I am going to try and be patient and do the same for the NBA. I thought I had something that would work, but so far I am not even getting 50% overall. I think my problem is I am not patient ... if it doesn't work I tweak it and tweak it and tweak more. That's good and bad. So now I have a multitude of systems and variations ... and backtesting shows some sucess, but I keep playing different ones and getting 50%.
Soooooo .. I'll share some of them and if someone is patient, and sticks with one for a while they may show a profit, where I couldn't (stick with it that is.) So what I'll do is track them and post the results and stop making "predictions" so to speak, but let you make the choice from various systems. And if you have one I can understand I'll track it too and include it. I'm looking for concensus in systems and see how that works.
This may take a while to get all together, but as you guys may know, I'm pretty dedicated to make this work. So let me know what ideas you may have and any suggestions.
First off I want to post like I did in Cappers thread the backtesting results for my latest system. Formatting this for this forum absoluty sucks, but I will do my best.
Games Win Lose Push Win %
25 15 10 0 60%
50 27 23 0 54%
75 42 33 0 56%
100 56 44 0 56%
125 69 56 0 55.2%
150 84 66 0 56%
175 97 78 0 55.4%
200 113 86 1 56.5%
250 144 105 1 57.6%
300 176 121 3 58.7%
318 188 126 4 59.1%
25 15 10 0 60%
50 27 23 0 54%
75 42 33 0 56%
100 56 44 0 56%
125 69 56 0 55.2%
150 84 66 0 56%
175 97 78 0 55.4%
200 113 86 1 56.5%
250 144 105 1 57.6%
300 176 121 3 58.7%
318 188 126 4 59.1%
As you can see the backtesting looks promising. Now I just need to either keep it up, figure out what I am doing wrong theory wise, or find the mistakes I may have made. It just looks to good to be true, so it probaly is. This system is for all games ... I have some filters I have added to make the results look a bit better. This filter cuts out about 60% of the total games played.
Games Win Lose Push Win %
25 6 4 0 60%
50 9 9 0 50%
75 16 10 0 61.5%
100 19 13 0 59.4%
125 27 16 0 62.8%
150 36 20 0 64.3%
175 40 24 0 62.5%
200 48 28 0 63.2%
250 67 34 0 66.3%
300 88 39 1 68.8%
318 92 41 1 68.7%
25 6 4 0 60%
50 9 9 0 50%
75 16 10 0 61.5%
100 19 13 0 59.4%
125 27 16 0 62.8%
150 36 20 0 64.3%
175 40 24 0 62.5%
200 48 28 0 63.2%
250 67 34 0 66.3%
300 88 39 1 68.8%
318 92 41 1 68.7%
Believe it or not this system does not rely on the line!!! I'm trying to think of a way to include the line, but that will take some work. I basically let the books figure out the day to day adjustments to the line .. ie injuries and such. I'm looking more at the tendencies of the two teams past, if that makes sense.
I'll post the picks for these two systems in a few minutes.
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