My NCAA / NFL System

Just found this site today - greetings..

This is my first year of using a system. I just posted this info as a comment to an article on the front page .. then found the forums. So I figured I would repost here and see if anyone has any comments.

I do a simple comparison of Pass Y/A OFF versus OPP DEF and Rush Y/A OFF versus OPP DEF.

I have correctly picked the following upsets recently using these basic calculations and stat comparisons:

Navy defeats Wake Forest (22 pt spread) underdog wins
Boise State defeats Oregon (11 pt spread) underdog wins

New Mexico State defeats Nevada (19.5 pt spread) underdog wins
Oklahoma State defeats Missouri (14 pt spread) underdog wins

Here is an example of how I calculated Oklahoma State to beat Missouri STRAIGHT UP!

                      OP      OR     DP     DR     P     R

Oklahoma St. 11.5      6.1    4.9      4.5    23    42

Missouri         10.2     5.9    6.6       2.7    45    16

P= OP Rank + DP Rank compared to all other games (low = good)
R= OR Rank + DR Rank compared to all other games (low = good)

I weight PASS @ 2.5x RUN

So OSU was favored 22 Rank points in Passing x 2.5 = 55
MIZZ was favored by 26 Rank points in Rushing = -26

So OSU was favored by 29 Rank points which isn't a large margin (range from 0.5 to 149.5 margin) - but enough to win the game.

I picked 30/36 Straight Up winners this week.

Very Interesting.  Will you be posting your plays? 

I will post my NCAA plays in a couple days...

30 out of 36 winners is impressive. I'd like to see your posted plays and reasoning behind them with this system.

It doesn't look like I'm going to have time to put together my NCAA until tuesday or wednesday... but I will post all of my data here when I do...

To be fair about the 30/36 ... they were just winners - not ATS.. and this week there weren't many upsets... although I did pick 2 of the big upsets for the week.

What I'm trying to learn is when to bet single bets, when to bet parlays, and teasers... even though I've picked some ridiculous upsets this year correctly, I haven't won much $ because I combine my upsets with what I consider "sure things" (haha - i know) ... in a parlay.. and end up losing

anyway - I'll be back tomorrow or wednesday with my NCAA picks for saturday

if this works for any games you could start looking at 3 point dogs and taking them on money lines just bet to win 1 unit if you lose bet the next game plus line to win a unit plus money back.....

Team A +3  ML +150
Team B -3   ML -160     bet team A on ML .67 to win 1 unit if you lose go to next game..........

Team C +4.5   ML +160
Team D -4.5   ML -180    bet team C on ML 105 to win 1.67

make sense?

You should weigh your numbers to the competition they faced during the year because they become skewed becasuse of different levels of competition.

Here are my picks for this week.

The number in the first column is the confidence rank of the winner straight up based on the statistics I review. So I'm saying the winner of row 50 is favored by a VERY narrow margin.

The WINNER is just the straight up winner. The SPREAD is just there for reference - see explanations of side notes below.

*** I have to split this into multiple posts because it exceeds the 7800 Character Limit***

Washington St.

USC	-42.5
Washington	Oregon St.	-16
Michigan	Penn St.	-24.5
Syracuse	South Florida	-24
UNLV	Air Force	-4	Air Force
Toledo	Northern Illinois	-9.5
Virginia	North Carolina	-4.5	North Carolina
Clemson	Georgia Tech	-2.5	Georgia Tech
Texas A&M	Texas Tech	-20.5
UTEP	Tulsa	-18
Virginia Tech	Boston Coll.	-3	Boston Coll
Hawaii	Boise St.	-23.5
Vanderbilt	Georgia	-14.5
LA Lafayette	Arkansas St.	3	Ark St – MONEYLINE
Duke	Miami (Fl)	-3	Miami Fl
Middle Tenn. St.	Louisville	-14.5
Iowa St.	Nebraska	-8
Colorado	Kansas St.	3.5	Kansas St – MONEYLINE
Army	Buffalo	-12
Colorado St.	Utah	-21.5
Utah St.	Nevada	-22
Rutgers	Connecticut	-1	Conn
Mississippi	Alabama	-12
Miami (Oh)	Bowling Green	-9.5
Mississippi St.	Tennessee	-7.5

	North Texas	LA Monroe	-17.5
Indiana	Illinois	-15.5
Rice	Southern Miss	2
Baylor	Oklahoma St.	-17
South Carolina	LSU	-2
Michigan St.	Ohio St.	-3
East. Michigan	Akron	-4.5
Texas	Missouri	4	*Mizz Teas
Kansas	Oklahoma	-20	Kansas
Maryland	Wake Forest	-2.5
Idaho	Louisiana Tech	-20.5	Idaho
Pittsburgh	Navy	2.5
UCLA	Stanford	-2.5
Purdue	Northwestern	-4
Arizona	California	-2.5
Memphis	East Carolina	-8
San Diego St.	New Mexico	-14.5	San Diego
Troy	Florida Intl.	9.5	*Fla Atl Teas
West. Kentucky	Florida Atlantic	-2.5
Kentucky	Arkansas	7.5	*Ark Tease
UAB	Marshall	-3
New Mexico St.	San Jose St.	-2

Near the top you see teams that I would play to COVER because they have a large statistical advantage and don't have to cover much.

The 2 MONEYLINE picks are underdogs to win. This week, I don't see any big upsets in my rankings. If they were big dogs I would consider also making a bet with the points (like last week New Mexico State +19.5 when my rankings had them favored to win - so taking the points was a VERY confident play).

I added 3 TEASER picks in there this time - something new. My thinking here is that I have them 'slightly' favored to win in an upset, but adding 6-7 points to the 4-7 they already have could strengthen the play.

And also towards the bottom you will see some picks for underdogs I have projected to LOSE the game but could cover because the spread is so high and the statistical matchup suggests otherwise. (another consideration for teaser play)

-----------------------

To Wrap up... these are my 48 winners for the weekend.. but I would only say the top 35 listed are what I would consider "My Picks" - the others are close matchups - and I would consider other factors on those.

I look forward to seeing how this turns out - this is the first time I've posted my picks anywhere.

last note... the first column didn't paste.. so the first part about the RANK might not make sense. But the games are still listed in order of confidence...