This is my first year of using a system. I just posted this info as a comment to an article on the front page .. then found the forums. So I figured I would repost here and see if anyone has any comments.
I do a simple comparison of Pass Y/A OFF versus OPP DEF and Rush Y/A OFF versus OPP DEF.
I have correctly picked the following upsets recently using these basic calculations and stat comparisons:
Navy defeats Wake Forest (22 pt spread) underdog wins
Boise State defeats Oregon (11 pt spread) underdog wins
New Mexico State defeats Nevada (19.5 pt spread) underdog wins
Oklahoma State defeats Missouri (14 pt spread) underdog wins
Here is an example of how I calculated Oklahoma State to beat Missouri STRAIGHT UP!
OP OR DP DR P R
Oklahoma St. 11.5 6.1 4.9 4.5 23 42
Missouri 10.2 5.9 6.6 2.7 45 16
P= OP Rank + DP Rank compared to all other games (low = good)
R= OR Rank + DR Rank compared to all other games (low = good)
I weight PASS @ 2.5x RUN
So OSU was favored 22 Rank points in Passing x 2.5 = 55
MIZZ was favored by 26 Rank points in Rushing = -26
So OSU was favored by 29 Rank points which isn't a large margin (range from 0.5 to 149.5 margin) - but enough to win the game.
I picked 30/36 Straight Up winners this week.
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