Live betting- school of hard knocks

Alright, the topic is live betting, some of you probably love it, and some of you don't even think about it. I made my first live bet four days ago, and I want to share my thoughts and maybe get some feed back from those of you out there who are having success doing it. I don't expect anyone to disclose their trade secrets, but a little constructive criticism or analysis would be helpful. Here are my bets and some reasoning for the plays...

 

100 is one unit

 

10/9 Clem+250>100 WF was clearly better, but they couldn't put the game away, so I jumped on Clemson at a nice price.

WF+150>200 Got it at just the right time, I never saw anything better after this bet.

(W)+200

 

10/10 Memphis+6.5 220>100 Again, the better team but really bad beat here, if you watched the game you know the coach went for it.

(L)-100

 

10/10 BOS ov8.5+310>100 To be honest I bought this bet as an insurance to the Memphis bet. Secondly, after Dk's wild first inning I thought the wheel was going to fall off soon. 

(L)-100

 

10/11 OU-6.5+249>100 After OU came out and scored quickly and UT only got a field goal to answer, then after the next series the best price was +270, it never got higher than that for the rest of the game. After UT took the lead I got OU+249 thinking I could get some plus $ when OU regain the lead. It never happened.

(L)-100

 

10/11 LSU+6.5 +305>100 Sometimes you don't want to see what's in front of you. And I clearly remember saying to myself LSU will get back into this game.

(L)-100

 

10/11 BOS+300>100 Hey, if anybody can stage a come back these guys can. And I was absolutely giddy when they belted out one homer after another.

TAM-118>230 Again, another insurance bet after Rays answered and chased Beckett.

(W)+0.95

 

10/12 BAL+3.5 +560>100 Again, I refused to see what was in front of me. I kept saying to myself the D will show up and Flacco will get into a groove.The only groove I saw was the price sky rocketing...+760 +850 +1000 +2000

(L)-100

 

10/12 DAL-4.5 +550>100 I got this bet in after Cards went ahead by a touch down 21-14. I was anticipating the boys to answer and buy some Cards back around -125 or maybe even plus money. Looking back I regret not getting the same +500 when the 2nd touchdown by Cards was under review. During the review +500 was still on the board but I said to myself what if the score stands?  Cards+150 after DAL took the lead. I badly miss played.

(L)-100

 

10/12 PHI+1050>100 Moyer promptly rocked and I saw the dollar sign, again. Disregarding Kuroda's dominance over the Phillies, I reasoned it's still early and anything can happen. Top of the 7th, Kuroda out, Wade in, 2 men on and nobody out, here's my chance! I was ready and willing to accept a small profit and take LAD -350-400, unless of course they hit a grand slam and throw in a few more runs to tie it. Lies, lies, and more lies.

(L)

 

So here it is, the reality, the truth. If it looks easy, it ain't. When I look back on these plays I see a prevailing trend: I'm a sucker. I always wait until the price is +250 or better thinking it's a lock because I'll have outs later on as the game progress. The other part is I don't have the timing down right. To have success live betting you need perfect timing and nerves of steel. If you second guess yourself for just a few seconds you may never see that opportunity again. The OU/UT and ARI/DAL could have been profitable had I made more savvy decisions. I know, coulda, shoulda, woulda...no excuses, you either get the cash or you don't. And I didn't, this time. I'll try again next week, and I'll bet smaller, until I get a better feel for it and learn how to spot the prime bets. Welcome to the school of hard knocks. I'm a student, and the class is in session.

 

 

 

 HEDGING IS THE KEY. YOU CAN PLAY BOTH SIDES FOR A GUARANTED PROFIT BY HEDGING. IT WORKS IN OVER 80% OF ALL GAMES.IN ALMOST EVERY GAME BOTH SIDE RECEIVE A +VALUE SOMEWHERE DURING THE GAME. YOU AUTOMATICALLY WIN WHEN THAT HAPPENS. HOWEVER WHEN ONE TEAM IS  A NEGATIVE YOU STILL CAN WIN BY HEDGING BOTH SIDES. EXAMPLE TEAM A IS AT -120 YOU PLAY $ 12 ON THEM TO WIN $10. THE GAME GETS LOOPSIDED AND TEAM B ODDS ARE AT +400. BY RISKING $4 ON THEM YOU WIN EITHER WAY.IN CASE 1 YOU MAKE $10 - THE 3 YOU RISKED ON THE OTHER SIDE OR $6. IN CASE 2 YOU MAKE $16 - THE $12 YOU RISKED ON TEAM B FOR A $4 PROFIT.  YOU CAN MAKE MONEY 90% OF ALL GAMES AND SOMETIMES A LOT.

This is most effective in hoops when there is almost, and I say almost, always runs back and forth. Therefore your lead mid game is basically worthless in respect to the final but does afford a chance to grind a profit. In football more often teams go wire to wire and if you are on the wrong side you can have no hedge opportunity but again more often then not you get runs both ways.  Baseball I think you should be more cautious 3 or 4 runs early can put you to bed if you are on the wrong side AND if you are on the right side you probably should let it ride anyway because multi run leads have alot of strength in baseball. ( yes I am prepared for the TB game 5 example you will site   that was an anomaly)

I agree, in hoops there are many times when the dog jumps out to a lead in the first 1/4 or even the first 1/2 only to be blown out in the 2nd half...

Thanks for the input guys, but it seems like to hedge you need to lay down bigger bets to make the profit worthwhile. For example if you buy a side +120 for 1 unit before the start of game and things go your way and the other side becomes + money you'd cash either way. But unless you bet something like a nickel to a dime the profit is just pocket change. Let's say you only bet $100, then you'd have to grind out 4-5 winners just to make $100. But if you put $500 on five different games and two or more games never fluctuate to your advantage you're in deep trouble. And say if you play big like a dime or more and only pick out a handful of games per week, let's say you got +140 and you see the opportunity but only problem is you can only buy $300 or $400 of it back....the unmatched funds would put you in a bind because you wouldn't get the same odds again. That's less likely to happen in NFL, but in college level athletics and smaller limit sports like NBA and MLB it could get very dicey. I'm trying to figure out how much percentage wise you'd have to win hedging to equal what you'd make in profits just straight betting. I would think it has to be more than 55%, am I right?

 

 

Okay, I'm getting back on the horse tonight. PHI vs TAM, Myers+164 for 1.22 units. Gonna watch the whole game from start to finish and will keep track of the live movements and report back. Let's see if we can get some cash tonight

 

PHI+178 real quick, same inning no out men on 2nd &3rd TAM+315. End of 3rd 3-0 PHI+400, End of 7th PHI+1100. Multiple situations were PHI had men on with no out and couldn't captialize.

 

Question: I saw some crazy lines like TAM-2000 $300, does that mean someone was betting $300 to win back $15?

 

TAM-1950 $5739 for $295 profit?

Yes, I bet like that all the time for basketball.  If you know whose going to win, why reduce yourself to 50/50 by betting the spread....

Are you kidding, betting $5739 to win back $295? at that point the score was 4-0, the Philies got two runs back and anything could've happened. I would never take that kind of odds.