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I am going to track a variant of Rick Brown's "Key" parlay system. I'll be using the same rules for selection of the "key" team and for progression on a loss by the "key" and regression on a win. A "push" will cause no change in the unit-bet level.
The only variation will be that, instead of using the moneyline for the entire hockey match, I'm going to use the moneyline for the first period only. My thesis is that the system will prove to be more profitable and have less volatility. This is because, when you use the heaviest favorite as the "key," the moneyline for the entire match will always be much higher than the moneyline for the first period only. So you get a much better payoff using the first-period moneyline. The "downside" to this is that the "key" will/should have a lower win percentage. And there certainly will be a lot of pushes than will not happen when you bet on the entire match.
When you have a two-team parlay and one side of the parlay is a "push" the bet becomes a straight bet on the other side of the parlay. If it wins, you win a straight bet at the moneyline odds used to calculate the parlay payoff. If it loses, you lose the straight bet. If both sides of the parlay "push," the bet is a "push."
The consequence of these "pushes" will/should be less volatility in the money flow resulting from the bets as the "pushes" will turn some parlays into straight bets. We shall see if my theses prove to be correct. In any event, it will be interesting.
I'm going to use the first-period moneylines at my book, which are put up late every night. And I'll try to post them here promptly after their posting so I get something close to Rick's "opening line" for the match.
For Saturday, March 31, the "key" is TB at -185 for the first period. TB will be pared with the Rangers at -175, Anaheim at -160 and Nashville at -145. I'll start with a $100 parlay for each:
key is Tampa Bay in $100 parlays with
NYR 100/142
Ana 100/150.40
Nash 100/160.20
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