IMPORTANT INFOMATION NFL PLAYS

  FIRST OF ALL I JUST STARTED POSTING GAMES.  I NEED TO GET THE KINKS OUT OF HOW TO POST MY GAMES CORRECTLY. I THINK WHAT YOU WILL SEE WILL RESOLVE THE PROBLEM. I AM POSTING PLAYS TO ESTABLISH A TRACK RECORD. I AM EITHER GOING TO TEACH A HANDICAPPING COURSE IN LAS VEGAS OR START AN INFORMATION SERVICE.

   TODAY I WILL SHOW YOU HOW TO GET A BASE  SPREAD. I USE 2 INDEPENDENT FUNCTIONS AS WHAT LINESMAKERS OF OLD ONCE DID. I WILL SHOW YOU ONE OF THEM BUT NOT THE OTHER.  HERE IT IS IN A NUT SHELL.

    YOU NEED TO LOOK AT THE STANDINGS AND THE TOTAL POINTS SCORED FOR AND AGAINST EVERY TEAM. SUBTRACT THE DIFFERENCE AND DO THE SAME FOR THE OPPONENT. NOW ADD THE TOTAL GAMES PLAYED BY EACH TEAM. DIVIDE THE DIFFERENCE AND YOU WILL HAVE THE SPREAD IF BOTH TEAMS PLAYED ON A NEUTRAL FIELD.

                             EXAMPLE

 LETS SAY THE JETS HAVE OUTSCORED THEIR OPPONENT BY 5

0 POINTS THROUGH 8 GAMES. THEY ARE PLAYING SAN FRAN. WHO HAS BEEN OUTSCORED BY 14 POINTS THRU 8 GAMES. WE SUBTRACT THE DIFFERENCE. 50 +  -14= 64. NEXT WE ADD THE TOTAL GAMES EACH PLAYED, WHICH IS 8+8 =16. NOW WE DIVIDE 16 INTO 64 = 4. IF THE JETS PLAYED SAN FRAN ON A NEUTRAL FIELD THEY WOULD BEAT THEM BY AN AVERAGE OF 4 POINTS.

 THAT IS A BASE SPREAD. THIS IS ONE OF 3 PRIMARY FACTORS I USE . I USE SEVERAL SECONDARY FACTORS BUT THEY ARE NOT NEARLY AS IMPORTANT AS PRIMARY FACTORS AND INDEED; ARE SERVANTS TO PRIMARY FACTORS. AN EXAMPLE OF A SECONDARY FACTOR IS A TEAM SEEKING REVENGE. PRIMARY FACTORS MUST BE IN PLACE FOR A REVENGE FACTOR TO WORK. ALSO REVENGE FACTORS HAVE DIFFERENT UNITS OF STRENGTH AND ARE DIFFUSED IN RELATIONSHIP TO THE TEAMS STRENGTHS INVOLVING  TODAYS GAME.

 GETING BACK TO OUR BASE SPREAD WE MUST NOW MANIPULATE HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE. IN THE NFL THAT ADVANTAGE IS 5 1/2..  I CHANGE IT TO 6 TO MAKE IT EASY TO WORK WITH.

 THEREFORE ON AVERAGE WITH ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL THE JETS SHOULD  BE A 7 POINT FAVORITE AT HOME AND A 1 POINT FAVORITE ON THE ROAD. WE ADD 3 POINTS ONTO THE NEUTRAL SITE WHEN PLAYING AT HOME AND SUBTRACT 3 WHEN ON THE ROAD THUS GETTING THE 6 POINT DIFFERENCE.

   HOWEVER ALL IS NOT CORRECT WHEN USING THIS. REMEMBER THAT IS THE AVERAGE AMOUNT OF DIFFERENCE. HERE IS WHERE THERE IS A DIFFERENCE. TEAMS THAT ARE GEOGRAPHICALLY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER THE SPREAD IS ONLY ON AVERAGE A 4 POINT MARGIN BETWEEN HOME FIELD ADVANTAGES . TEAMS THAT ARE FAR AWAY FROM EACH OTHER CAN BE AS MANY AS A 10 POINT DIFFERENCE. THE GREATER THE DISTANCE AND CLIMATE CHANGE THE MORE DIVERSE THE DIFFERENCE IN THE PROPER BASE SPREAD . A TEAM TRAVELING 500 MILES OR MORE WILL NOT PLAY AS WELL AS A WHOLE THEN IF THEY WERE CLOSER TOGETHER. THEY WILL NOT PLAY AS WELL IF THE EXPERIENCING A WEATHER CHANGE FROM THEIR USUAL CITIES CLIMATE. DID YOU KNOW THAT WHEN TAMPA BAY WAS IN THE SAME DIVISION AS CHIC, MINN, AND GREEN BAY THEN WENT ABOUT 20 YEARS WITHOUT EVER  WINNING A GAME IN COLD WEATHER? HOW MANY POINTS SHOULD HAVE BEEN TACKED ON TO THAT FACTOR? WITHOUT GETTING INTO DETAILS I BASICALLY I USE 4 AS MY BASE POINT DIFFERENCE AND THEN ADD THE TRAVEL FACTOR TO THIS. THEREFORE WHEN THE JETS PLAY SAN FRAN WHICH IS A 3000 MILE TRIP I  ADD ANOTHER 3 POINTS ONTO HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE. SINCE MY HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE BASE IS 4 , AND ON AVERAGE THE JETS IN OUR EXAMPLE ARE 4 POINTS BETTER ON A NEUTRAL FIELD THAT WOULD MEAN THE JETS SHOULD BE A 9 POINT FAVORITE AT HOME AND A 1 POINT DOG AWAY. IF SAN FRANS RECORD WAS THE SAME AS PHIL FOR EXAMPLE. THEN THE DIFFERENCE IN HOME SPREADS BETWEEN THE JETS AND PHIL WOULD ONLY BE THE JETS  -6 AT HOME AND -2 AWAY.

  THIS IS THE WAY TO GET AN ACCURATE BASE SPREAD. FROM THAT BASE SPREAD I ADD 2 OTHER  PRIMARY FACTORS.  LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW I WILL GIVE  OUTTHE BASE SPREADS AS COMPARED TO THE ACTUAL SPREADS AND THEN I WILL INCLUDE OTHER DATA THAT WILL GIVE A TRUER PICTURE AS TO WHAT TO EXPECT FROM GAMES COMING UP. THE CARD LOOKS GOOD AND I EXPECT TO GO 6-3 ( 9 PLAYS) OR BETTER.

 THE BEST TO YOU

 PROF K