Posted:
#1
First of all any help would be appreciated... Well for what I have read in different sources this system takinf favorite/over and Underdog/Under if the line is at least 33% of the total you would hit about 65% of the games making it very profitable, the problem is where you can place this bets well you gotta find that out but yourself but I got another idea...here it is:
In 1 game you have 2 parlays each one between 30-35% chance of hitting it, so lets say if you play both you have like 65% chance of hitting 1 of those for a payout 1-2.6 now if you instead of making just 2 parlays in 1 single game what about if you make a 4 4-team parlay in 2 games with a 1-10 odds? Lets make the math with a 65% chance of hitting 1 out of 2 in each game !!!
Game A: 65%
Game B: 65%
Probabilitie of hitting 1 of the 4 4-team parlay= 0.65 * 0.65 = 0.4225 = 42.25% ... Now lets put 100 bets at $100 each parlay !!!
With a 2 team parlay you would have 65 winners and (35 * 2) + 65 loosers ... that would be 65 winners and 135 loosers for a payout like this:
Win = 65 * 100 * 2.6 = $16,900
Loose = 135 * 100 = $13500
Profit = $3400
Now wit 4 4-team plarlays would be:
At 42.25% chance of winning 1 of those 4 lets say in 100 bets(4 parlays) you win 42 times and loose 58 times...with 1-10 odds..
Win = 42 * 100 * 10 = $42000
Loose = ( (58 * 4) + (42 * 3) ) * 100 = $35800
Profit = 42000 - 35800 = $6200
Risking the same amount there is a big difference in the profit, of course the variance increases but is it worthly? what do you think? Another point is that there is a huge number of combinations you could do in a week of 10 games that qualify making combinations of 4 team parlays with these 10 teams would be a lot and you would require a huge bankroll if you want to keep playing at 100 each one...Now what about if you place for example in a week of 10 game you place 5-2 games combinations making 20 parlays that would be the same as making 10-1 game parlays for a total of 20 parlays... Am I missing something? help me out if you got any ideas or opinions !!!
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