An idea for the already 33% system !!!

First of all any help would be appreciated... Well for what I have read in different sources this system takinf favorite/over and Underdog/Under if the line is at least 33% of the total you would hit about 65% of the games making it very profitable, the problem is where you can place this bets well you gotta find that out but yourself but I got another idea...here it is:

 

In 1 game you have 2 parlays each one between 30-35% chance of hitting it, so lets say if you play both you have like 65% chance of hitting 1 of those for a payout 1-2.6 now if you instead of making just 2 parlays in 1 single game what about if you make a 4 4-team parlay in 2 games with a 1-10 odds? Lets make the math with a 65% chance of hitting 1 out of 2 in each game !!!

 

Game A: 65%

Game B: 65%

 

Probabilitie of hitting 1 of the 4 4-team parlay= 0.65 * 0.65 = 0.4225 = 42.25% ... Now lets put 100 bets at $100 each parlay !!!

 

With a 2 team parlay you would have 65 winners and (35 * 2) + 65 loosers ... that would be 65 winners and  135 loosers for a payout like this:

 

Win = 65 * 100 * 2.6 = $16,900

Loose = 135 * 100 = $13500

Profit = $3400

 

Now wit 4 4-team plarlays would be:

 

At 42.25% chance of winning 1 of those 4 lets say in 100 bets(4 parlays) you win 42 times and loose 58 times...with 1-10 odds..

 

Win = 42 * 100 * 10 = $42000

Loose = ( (58 * 4) + (42 * 3) ) * 100 = $35800

Profit = 42000 - 35800 = $6200

 

Risking the same amount there is a big difference in the profit, of course the variance increases but is it worthly? what do you think? Another point is that there is a huge number of combinations you could do in a week of 10 games that qualify making combinations of 4 team parlays with these 10 teams would be a lot and you would require a huge bankroll if you want to keep playing at 100 each one...Now what about if you place for example in a week of 10 game you place 5-2 games combinations making 20 parlays that would be the same as making 10-1 game parlays for a total of 20 parlays... Am I missing something? help me out if you got any ideas or opinions !!!

i say stick with 2 teams but u do have some valid points but its all personal opinion

USC -24 O/U - 52.5 45%

Tulane -18.5 O/U - 50 37%

Both are over the 33% mark. What would the parlay be??

SC/OVER and TUL/OVER

OSU/UNDER and SMU/UNDER

SMU/UNDER and SC/OVER

OSU/UNDER and TUL/OVER

We'll put 1 unit on each

RISK = 4 UNITS