Posted:
#326
Scal, I've been trying to add you as a friend and msg you about a possible hedge on the GER future bet that I got from you
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World Cup Knockout Tournament.... Round of 16 and on....
Posted:
#328
I'm in an interesting position Scal. I put $25 to win $100 on GER before the start of the cup. Now, Sportsbook just posted a 25% reload deposit bonus for a free bet worth up to $500. I probably won't put a full 2k on, but maybe close to it. The only issue is I can't use the bet for a future wager. But I can use it for a straight bet. I was wondering if u think a should perhaps acquire the free bet, and put more on GER to win IN REGULATION or maybe put some on Arg at +260 to win in regulation. If you think there is value and a fighting chance for Arg at +260 in reg. Should I put anything on them at all? And maybe add some more of my own $ in the acct. on GER to win it all at -180. (So they are not forced to win in reg.) I feel like I have to do something in this situation, Scal
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Posted:
#330
Quote Originally Posted by Figgygetit:
I'm in an interesting position Scal. I put $25 to win $100 on GER before the start of the cup. Now, Sportsbook just posted a 25% reload deposit bonus for a free bet worth up to $500. I probably won't put a full 2k on, but maybe close to it. The only issue is I can't use the bet for a future wager. But I can use it for a straight bet. I was wondering if u think a should perhaps acquire the free bet, and put more on GER to win IN REGULATION or maybe put some on Arg at +260 to win in regulation. If you think there is value and a fighting chance for Arg at +260 in reg. Should I put anything on them at all? And maybe add some more of my own $ in the acct. on GER to win it all at -180. (So they are not forced to win in reg.) I feel like I have to do something in this situation, Scal
I'm in an interesting position Scal. I put $25 to win $100 on GER before the start of the cup. Now, Sportsbook just posted a 25% reload deposit bonus for a free bet worth up to $500. I probably won't put a full 2k on, but maybe close to it. The only issue is I can't use the bet for a future wager. But I can use it for a straight bet. I was wondering if u think a should perhaps acquire the free bet, and put more on GER to win IN REGULATION or maybe put some on Arg at +260 to win in regulation. If you think there is value and a fighting chance for Arg at +260 in reg. Should I put anything on them at all? And maybe add some more of my own $ in the acct. on GER to win it all at -180. (So they are not forced to win in reg.) I feel like I have to do something in this situation, Scal
grow up.
Max Miller a great member of congress!
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Posted:
#331
Thank you for very MATURE and productive response. Some people are actually on this for to make money and help others do so as well. I had a legitimate question for someone who may be able to help me make the optimal decision to have the best chance of making money. If that seems childish to you, I can not possibly fault you in any way, for you must have been dropped head first dozens of times as in infant. Or perhaps someone is a little cranky because his team hasn't been able to sniff the Stanley cup in over two decades
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Posted:
#332
3rd place game - Brazil / Netherlands - OVER 3 -108 (4 units) -
Anyone who has been around here long enough knows what happens in third place games. I was really surprised to see 3 - although this game in particular has some great undertones - I fully expect a training field exercise and many goals to be scored (again).
Bet it early and often....
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Posted:
#333
Van... I agree about Brazil/Netherlands. There is ZERO reason to play reserved. Should be WIDE open back and forth and I can see 3 goals in the first half alone. Plus, Brazil wants nothing more than to send their fans home with a victory after the drubbing they took at the hands of the Germans.
Brazil 5 Netherlands 3
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Posted:
#334
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
3rd place game - Brazil / Netherlands - OVER 3 -108 (4 units) -
Anyone who has been around here long enough knows what happens in third place games. I was really surprised to see 3 - although this game in particular has some great undertones - I fully expect a training field exercise and many goals to be scored (again).
Bet it early and often....
Every 3rd place match from 1978 on has hit at least 3 goals.
I played OV 2.5/3 (-125). Obviously, no guarantees, but both teams should play a lot looser, especially the Dutch.
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Posted:
#335
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
3rd place game - Brazil / Netherlands - OVER 3 -108 (4 units) -
Anyone who has been around here long enough knows what happens in third place games. I was really surprised to see 3 - although this game in particular has some great undertones - I fully expect a training field exercise and many goals to be scored (again).
Bet it early and often....
was surprised to see this at 3 with the over at -102 earlier today. but i went ahead and hit it.
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Posted:
#338
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Argentina / Netherlands - Netherlands to advance +128 (1 unit) - Just a small play on the Netherlands here as I cant really come up with a reason to see why either of these sides are favored. Just see it as a dead PK - with one or two big plays deciding it.
Whoever wins this will have a real tough time with Germany and should consider themselves lucky to have been on this side of the bracket.
Predicted final score 1-1 after 90, and from then who knows.
Go back to when you were on the hot seat. You said you were leaving the corporate world to be a professional gambler. So is it fair to assume that one unit is much larger than the average better? You seemed willing to wager a unit on a game that could go either way. Means nothing to me Van and like you said most people blew their wad chasing in the first round.
So did you go back to the corporate world, I hope not it sucks.
Its been a fantastic tournament with what I believe are the two best teams, but not by much.
BOL
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Posted:
#340
Quote Originally Posted by Figgygetit:
I'm in an interesting position Scal. I put $25 to win $100 on GER before the start of the cup. Now, Sportsbook just posted a 25% reload deposit bonus for a free bet worth up to $500. I probably won't put a full 2k on, but maybe close to it. The only issue is I can't use the bet for a future wager. But I can use it for a straight bet. I was wondering if u think a should perhaps acquire the free bet, and put more on GER to win IN REGULATION or maybe put some on Arg at +260 to win in regulation. If you think there is value and a fighting chance for Arg at +260 in reg. Should I put anything on them at all? And maybe add some more of my own $ in the acct. on GER to win it all at -180. (So they are not forced to win in reg.) I feel like I have to do something in this situation, Scal
I'm in an interesting position Scal. I put $25 to win $100 on GER before the start of the cup. Now, Sportsbook just posted a 25% reload deposit bonus for a free bet worth up to $500. I probably won't put a full 2k on, but maybe close to it. The only issue is I can't use the bet for a future wager. But I can use it for a straight bet. I was wondering if u think a should perhaps acquire the free bet, and put more on GER to win IN REGULATION or maybe put some on Arg at +260 to win in regulation. If you think there is value and a fighting chance for Arg at +260 in reg. Should I put anything on them at all? And maybe add some more of my own $ in the acct. on GER to win it all at -180. (So they are not forced to win in reg.) I feel like I have to do something in this situation, Scal
Why would you mess with those regulation bets? Just take Argentina to lift the cup if you wanna hedge. Don't bother with regulations.
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Posted:
#341
Quote Originally Posted by Figgygetit:
........when you make a future bet on a team to win a champ. And they make it to the final game. I feel like there must be a way to guarantee a profit. Thx Scal for any advice as usual.
........when you make a future bet on a team to win a champ. And they make it to the final game. I feel like there must be a way to guarantee a profit. Thx Scal for any advice as usual.
It's really not complicated, just match your $125 payout.
Example: 25-100=125 on germany
hedge 54-71=125 on argentina
Guarantees $46 profit. For $25, not sure why you'd bother hedging unless this is considered a big bet for you. But if you wanted to hedge, there ya go.
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Posted:
#342
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
i'm getting over 3 @even money.Why do I feel like a fish on a line? 3rd place game - Brazil / Netherlands - OVER 3 -108 (4 units) -
Anyone who has been around here long enough knows what happens in third place games. I was really surprised to see 3 - although this game in particular has some great undertones - I fully expect a training field exercise and many goals to be scored (again).
Bet it early and often....
Ahhh who cares i'll put just a portion of my winnings on what i bet on Germany and Argentina to advance.GL Van and thnks for all your valuable input on this years' WC.
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Posted:
#343
Quote Originally Posted by Kurshka:
Insult? I asked for his thoughts on a bet. Weird i would do so in a gambling discussion forum.....
Most people take the popcorn eating as an insult plus the fact you were answered when he was on the hot seat.
Train you are like a fly that avoids being swatted.
You are amazing sir. My hero.
P.S. I avoid being swatted because you srent strong enough to get the job done Sally. 
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Posted:
#346
Quote Originally Posted by Kurshka:
Sorry Train you been here longer than me but the popcorn guy is an insult in my forums. What do you think it means?
geezus say hello at least Kurshka. JK brother,hope you been well.Sorry Train you been here longer than me but the popcorn guy is an insult in my forums. What do you think it means?
And what does srent mean and who is Sally?
Cute pup in your avi.Is it yours?
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Posted:
#349
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
3rd place game - Brazil / Netherlands - OVER 3 -108 (4 units) -
Anyone who has been around here long enough knows what happens in third place games. I was really surprised to see 3 - although this game in particular has some great undertones - I fully expect a training field exercise and many goals to be scored (again).
Bet it early and often....
To bet over 3 goals, you'd better hope Brazil to score all of the 4 goals against these sloppy orange shirts. This Dutch bunch would probably lay a big fat egg again on Saturday, these orange f**** did mostly pass the ball backward to their defenders and goalie through out the game in the semi against Argentines. 
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Posted:
#350
Just to give some credit where its due. Nice call on both games.
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:
Let me say why I like Germany and Argentina.
Let me say why I like Germany and Argentina.
Germany is playing a team that had a lot of heart but little chemistry. They barely beat Chile and then hung on against Colombia only to lose two of their stars in the process. Now that Brazil is depleted are we to believe that they will magically rally around each other, find the chemistry they were lacking and play their best ball against a German team that is better than any team they have faced thus far? Being a slight underdog might take some of the pressure off of this Brazil team, but not much. This is still Brazil and they will be expected to win. Hence, the injury and the suspension are not so much a rallying cry as they are the straw that broke the camel's back. From this vantage point, Germany to qualify is better than a 50/50 proposition.
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